From $14 to $18 to $25 - But, hey, they are well managed

[train]

Well Deficit Dwight is about to announce today that the Ontario deficit will now likely hit $25 billion. What were you saying OJ about how well the Libs were managing the province and how it was too bad that Flaherty counldn't be as accurate with his budget predictions as they were ?

McSquint is making Rae look like an amateur.

 

[slowpoke]

There no doubt that politics is influencing these forecasts and it is hard to make accurate predictions when the economy is so volatile. I have no intention of trying to defend Duncan or McGuinty but at least Duncan's projection has only jumped from 14 to 25 which is a mere 79% increase.

Flaherty was much more culpable when he made his economic update in Nov 2008 where he claimed we'd have a small surplus. Less than 12 months later, he's admitting to something like $60 Billion. I'm not even going to attempt to calculate the magnitude of that error but it is many times worse than Duncan's.

The thing that really annoyed me about Flaherty's economic update was that the rest of the financial community could see big deficits coming but he couldn't. Duncan is having a hard time getting his numbers straight but at least he appears to be trying. Flaherty now appears to be trying as well but only after his Nov 08 attempt to bamboozle us backfired and almost cost him his job.

 

[train]

Flaherty was much more culpable when he made his economic update in Nov 2008 where he claimed we'd have a small surplus. Less than 12 months later, he's admitting to something like $60 Billion. I'm not even going to attempt to calculate the magnitude of that error but it is many times worse than Duncan's.

I think even you realize that predicting the 2009-10 annual deficit in October or November of 2008 before anyone knew the depth of the world-wide crisis was quite different than doing so in March 2009 when it was known a lot better.

Come to think of it was Flaherty talking about the year ended March 2009 or 2010 in his November statement? You do realize the $60 refers to the year ended March 30 2010 don't you?

Don't forget Defict Dwight also predicted a surplus for the year ended March 30 2009 and ended up with a deficit of $6 billion after taking 6 months to close the books.


You guys are beauts

 

[landscaper]

one of these days we will get a comment thread without the partisan rants.......

 

[slowpoke]

I think even you realize that predicting the 2009-10 annual deficit in October or November of 2008 before anyone knew the depth of the world-wide crisis was quite different than doing so in March 2009 when it was known a lot better.

Come to think of it was Flaherty talking about the year ended March 2009 or 2010 in his November statement? You do realize the $60 refers to the year ended March 30 2010 don't you?

Don't forget Defict Dwight also predicted a surplus for the year ended March 30 2009 and ended up with a deficit of $6 billion after taking 6 months to close the books.


You guys are beauts

I agree that we will get much more accurate numbers now. BTW, when exactly did Duncan predict only $14 B?

I clearly recall the near outrage among financial commentators shortly after Flahery's Nov 27 bombshell. Everyone said he was way off base and they turned out to be correct. I personally know nothing about the science of forecasting but Kevin Page seems to do it much better than Flaherty so I'm quite sure Flaherty was giving us a line of shit instead of a realistic assessment.

 

[train]

I agree that we will get much more accurate numbers now. BTW, when exactly did Duncan predict only $14 B?

.

March 2009

http://in.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idINTOD00403320090326

 

[slowpoke]

March 2009

http://in.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idINTOD00403320090326

We have to wait for his fall economic statement this PM. I've seen some articles that are predicting it will go to around $22 B. It's still a big jump but I think a lot of these increases are political. At some point, gov'ts will want to get all the bad news on the table so they look good when their cost cutting measures start to kick in. Like I said, I'm not hanging my hat on Duncan or McGuinty. But Flaherty has been raising his deficit projections in leaps and bounds as well. I hate them all.

 

[train]

But Flaherty has been raising his deficit projections in leaps and bounds as well. I hate them all.

I'm sure OJ has several old threads about that so let's stop trying to deflect from the issue. You can't crap all over Flaherty but effectively excuse Duncan because he did the same as Flaherty. That's what drives me absolutely bonkers about you and OJ.

Duncan had the benefit of time and a free reign.

 

[slowpoke]

I'm sure OJ has several old threads about that so let's stop trying to deflect from the issue. You can't crap all over Flaherty but effectively excuse Duncan because he did the same as Flaherty. That's what drives me absolutely bonkers about you and OJ.

Duncan had the benefit of time and a free reign.

But I'm not excusing Duncan. He's probably almost as useless as Flaherty but I don't see how that excuses either one of them. I've said several times that these projections are tainted by political considerations which means Duncan AND Flaherty are both guilty.

I've freely admitted that I dislike the current CPOC. And it is easier to know what the financial community thinks of their economic policies than it is for Duncan. Flaherty's every move gets analysed to the tits and back while Duncan seems to fly under the radar. The provincial opposition has been so weak and lacking in credibility that they haven't been digging up much dirt on McGuinty or Duncan until this recent e-health thing. It's often opposition watchdogs and whistle blowers who get these stories started. Then the newshounds pick up the trail and start exposing government ineptitude, arrogance, corruption and so on. Maybe its just me but I don't think the press has given us much to shoot at where the provincial Libs are concerned.

When I say Flaherty was way off base in November it was because so many financial commentators and big bank economists said he was way off base with those projections. Let's face it, Flaherty's update in Nov 08 was roundly discredited by political analysts and economic commentators of every stripe. I'm not an economist. I just read the newspapers and play the markets. Duncan was probably off base too but he got away with it since not much was said.

Since you've so often opined that Duncan and McGuinty are both incompetent morons, it is interesting that you're now saying Flaherty should be exonerated since his forcasts were no worse than Duncan's. So I guess I'm in complete agreement with you after all. Duncan IS a moron.

 

[train]

I stopped reading after the first paragraph because you repeat yourself ad-nausema and you confuse which budget year you are talking about all the time.

 

[oldjones]

Well Deficit Dwight is about to announce today that the Ontario deficit will now likely hit $25 billion. What were you saying OJ about how well the Libs were managing the province and how it was too bad that Flaherty counldn't be as accurate with his budget predictions as they were ?

McSquint is making Rae look like an amateur.

Do you have anything of interest to say about managing government budgets train? Or are you just trying to provoke me? Not only have you started your deficit thread even before Duncan's announcement, but the only point of your OP is to ask what I think about it. Then you go on to drag me into a couple of your replies to other posters.

You're obsessed.

On Dwight's Deficit: He shoulda seen it coming better. But I seem to recall anoth Finance Minister who predicted surplus and wound up in deficit, and who had to revise his deficit to double his original guess. And on a proportional basis he's right in line with the feds and better than some other provinces. Score him the same as you score Flattery, but at least he's spared us the mealy-mouthed fairytales about never runnning deficits and being superior managers. And on that score we should remember Harris's first deficit was a similar size.

I think you'll find—if you bother with facts at all—that pretty much anything

about how well the Libs were managing the province and how it was too bad that Flaherty counldn't be as accurate with his budget predictions as they were ?

would be words you put into my mouth, not my stated opinion.

First obsession, then voices. This is not good.

 

[train]

You are nothing if not predictable. Must be tough for you to be touting the Ontario Liberals only a short while ago and then find out they are worse than your hated Conservatives - and worse at one of the three tunes that keep spinning in your head.

Its wonderful justice although minor satisfaction as this province is clearly rudderless which is not good news for the country

 

[oldjones]

If I'm predictable, don't bother inviting me to your party. I'm only here because you did, and it wouldn't be polite to ignore the invite.

 

[slowpoke]

I stopped reading after the first paragraph because you repeat yourself ad-nausema and you confuse which budget year you are talking about all the time.

Both the Feds and ON have the same April 01 to March 31 fiscal year.

Flaherty's Nov 27/08 update was projecting a small surplus for the 08/09 fiscal year - mainly because he was refusing to stimulate the economy until the spring of the following year (09/10). He didn't have to do much guesswork for 08/09 since 2/3rds of it had already happened and he wasn't planning anything new. Where he got into trouble was delaying his stimulus spending until the following year and pretending that he'd also run a small surplus for 09/10. He knew perfectly well we were headed for recession and that he'd need to start spending to stimulate the economy. But he let politics cloud his judgement and refused to admit that a deficit was unavoidable for 09/10. That's where all the other financial analysts and economists strongly disagreed and they turned out to be right. They advised him to start stimulating the economy right away (ie during the last 4 months of the 08/09 fiscal year) but he refused and we ended up with a prorogued parliament with the PM hiding behind the GG's skirts.

As you correctly pointed out, Duncan predicted a small surplus for 08/09 and he ended up with a $6.4 B deficit. It took him until Sept 2009 to tally up that 08/09 deficit. Duncan has also failed to accurately predict the deficit for the current fiscal year (09/10) and his periodic updates have each contained upward revisions to his original estimate. So ON's projected deficit has climbed from $14B to $25 B and we still have 5 months to go. Have I missed anything?

I looked at my earlier posts and I don't see anything that doesn't jive with these dates. Sorry but I think you're trying to cloud the issue by pretending I've got these budget years mixed up.

 

[train]

No Flaherty was predicting a surplus for the year ended March 2009 and not March 2010 in your original claim when you compared it to the expected deficit of $60 billion.

$60 billion doesn't seem bad now when you compare Fed stimulus and bailout for the whole country to Ont stimulus and bailout and the Ont deficit of $25 - any bets Ont will be higher than that in the end ? Hell they couldn't even tell us what lasts year's $6 billion Ontario deficit was until 6 months after the year end.

Of course the feds have thrown away only what the NDP and Libs forced them to do ( ok that was unfair every government wastes a certain amount) and Dalton has thrown a lot away on untendered consulting for unsuccessful projects. But hey it wasn't all bad the newspapers keep saying the consultants had connections to the Liberal party.

In any event enen thje most biased observer ( meaning you and OJ) have to admit that the Ontario performance is at least as bad as the Feds. Accordingly I expect OJ and you to hound on the Liberals continually on this point for the next couple of years

 

[slowpoke]

Flaherty admitted that we MIGHT need to stimulate which MIGHT create a deficit for the first quarter on 09/10 when we'd be in a "technical" recession. Notice the proviso that "without action" Ottawa was headed for the first recession in 13 years. He then talked about selling off some assets and making tax cuts as if these would keep us out of deficit in 09/10. Yes he admitted a deficit might be possible but he was talking a completely different language than the rest of the financial community who advocated deficit stimulus spending in late 08/09 and onward into 09/10. Nobody believed for an instant that he could avoid stimulus spending or a hefty deficit. Except him.

http://www.thespec.com/News/Local/article/473702

Flaherty's economic update contained few surprises after several days of leaks that made public its main features.

The minister confirmed Canada is falling into a "technical recession" of two negative quarters of growth - the fourth quarter of 2008 and first of 2009 - and that without action Ottawa is heading for the first deficit in 13 years.

But Flaherty said the government continues to plan on balanced budgets for the next five years.

The finance minister said he will save money by selling $2.3 billion in government assets - including property - and another $2 billion in cuts, particularly salary controls for public servants as well as MPs and senators.

 

[K Douglas]

The McGuinty gov't is the 2nd worst gov't this province has seen in my lifetime. The 1st is obviously the NDP misfits under Bob "Mayday" Rae.