September 22, 2025
Alex Mark
France is on the edge and everyone is pretending it is not. Debt is rising faster than the government can admit, deficits are stuck above 5 percent of GDP through 2027, and the debt-to-GDP ratio is on track to hit 121 percent by that same year https://www.fitchratings.com/resear...ngrades-france-to-a-outlook-stable-12-09-2025
. That number does not just warn of risk, it guarantees it. By 2028 France could be at 125 percent, second only to Italy in Europe, but with none of Italy’s political tolerance for survival. Every euro borrowed now is a claim on a future that will be far uglier than anyone in Paris wants to acknowledge.
The government has been living on borrowed time for decades. France has not run a primary fiscal surplus since 2001. That means for almost 25 years the country has spent more than it earned, even before interest. Now interest is rising. Every basis point adds billions in costs, and every year the gap grows wider. The illusion of stability has shattered. What markets once accepted as reliability is now plainly a house built on sand.
Politics is collapsing around this financial disaster. François Bayrou’s resignation after his austerity budget failed was not a single event but a symptom. It was the third government to fall since 2024 because no leader can enforce fiscal discipline without being destroyed. Macron’s new prime minister Sébastien Lecornu steps into a parliament that blocks cuts, an electorate that rejects them, and a debt burden that is already crushing. Fitch warned, “fragmentation and polarisation… weaken the political system’s capacity to deliver substantial fiscal consolidation” https://www.france24.com/en/france/...d-amid-political-crisis-lecornu-macron-budget
. That is code for the state cannot act in its own survival interest.
Bayrou admitted the truth plainly: the elites reject reality, and the nation will pay. Every attempt to trim spending triggers collapse. Every delay allows debt to grow. Markets still pretend France deserves a rating seven levels above junk. That is inertia and hope, not logic. When investors realize that the state cannot contain its own liabilities, the reaction will be brutal and sudden.
Interest costs will soon consume a growing share of the budget. If rates hold or rise, debt service could approach 20 percent of total spending. That is no longer a number that allows choices. Cuts will come by force, by creditor pressure, or by the raw mechanics of insolvency. France is moving fast toward that zone, and the government is powerless to stop it.
This is structural unraveling, not a temporary shock. France is not yet Greece, but it is no longer Germany. The gap between economic order and chaos is shrinking daily, and every political failure accelerates the fall. The country is drifting, markets are counting, and the illusion of control is gone.
citizenwatchreport.com
Alex Mark
France is on the edge and everyone is pretending it is not. Debt is rising faster than the government can admit, deficits are stuck above 5 percent of GDP through 2027, and the debt-to-GDP ratio is on track to hit 121 percent by that same year https://www.fitchratings.com/resear...ngrades-france-to-a-outlook-stable-12-09-2025
. That number does not just warn of risk, it guarantees it. By 2028 France could be at 125 percent, second only to Italy in Europe, but with none of Italy’s political tolerance for survival. Every euro borrowed now is a claim on a future that will be far uglier than anyone in Paris wants to acknowledge.
The government has been living on borrowed time for decades. France has not run a primary fiscal surplus since 2001. That means for almost 25 years the country has spent more than it earned, even before interest. Now interest is rising. Every basis point adds billions in costs, and every year the gap grows wider. The illusion of stability has shattered. What markets once accepted as reliability is now plainly a house built on sand.
Politics is collapsing around this financial disaster. François Bayrou’s resignation after his austerity budget failed was not a single event but a symptom. It was the third government to fall since 2024 because no leader can enforce fiscal discipline without being destroyed. Macron’s new prime minister Sébastien Lecornu steps into a parliament that blocks cuts, an electorate that rejects them, and a debt burden that is already crushing. Fitch warned, “fragmentation and polarisation… weaken the political system’s capacity to deliver substantial fiscal consolidation” https://www.france24.com/en/france/...d-amid-political-crisis-lecornu-macron-budget
. That is code for the state cannot act in its own survival interest.
Bayrou admitted the truth plainly: the elites reject reality, and the nation will pay. Every attempt to trim spending triggers collapse. Every delay allows debt to grow. Markets still pretend France deserves a rating seven levels above junk. That is inertia and hope, not logic. When investors realize that the state cannot contain its own liabilities, the reaction will be brutal and sudden.
Interest costs will soon consume a growing share of the budget. If rates hold or rise, debt service could approach 20 percent of total spending. That is no longer a number that allows choices. Cuts will come by force, by creditor pressure, or by the raw mechanics of insolvency. France is moving fast toward that zone, and the government is powerless to stop it.
This is structural unraveling, not a temporary shock. France is not yet Greece, but it is no longer Germany. The gap between economic order and chaos is shrinking daily, and every political failure accelerates the fall. The country is drifting, markets are counting, and the illusion of control is gone.
France hurtles toward financial disaster, debt to hit 125 percent, governments collapsing, citizens warned of brutal austerity - Citizen Watch Report
France is on the edge and everyone is pretending it is not. Debt is rising faster than the government can admit, deficits are stuck above 5 percent of GDP - Citizen Watch Report
citizenwatchreport.com
