Federal Liberal's credibility at an all-time low

[train]

The discraceful display this week of the Federal Liberals voting for the new immigration legislation days after their leader Dion had critisized it, and saying he could never vote for it, seems to put the party's credibility at an all time low. Do they have such contempt for the public that they think we don't notice this ?

It is clear they will quickly compromise whatever principles they claim to have in order to avoid an immediate election.

Why ? Perhaps the answer lies in another bit of Liberal duplicity. They have long critisized the Conservatives for their lack of disclosure - probably rightly so in many cases.

The Quebec arm of the federal Libs, however, appears to have gone out of it's way in an attempt to stifle the press. They started a legal action against La Presse , seeking an injunction to prevent the newspaper from publishing a list of candidates for Quebec.

Embarrassed when news of the injunction became public they then withdrew their legal action.

What were they tring to keep secret ? Perhaps it was the fact that they are totally in disarray in Quebec having selected only 50 candidates for the 75 ridings.

A pretty good reason in their eyes I guess to compromise all principles ( politcians with principles is a bit of an oxymoron I know).

The Libs are a distant 3rd in Quebec polls and now rely almost totally on major urban centres in Toronto and Vancouver for support.

 

[Cinema Face]

Liberal principles? Now there’s an oxymoron. lol

In all fairness, they are the opposition party and they’re doing their job which is to oppose, even something that they agree with. They whine and complain, make it out to be the worst thing ever, and then vote for it in the end. Welcome to Canadian politics.

At least it seems that this minority government is working. I didn’t expect it to last this long.

 

[slowpoke]

Poll shows increased Liberal support in ON, NDP losing ground

With Dion's generally lacklustre performance and that near mutiny among Quebec Liberals, I was expecting his support to plummet everywhere. But it looks like Flaherty's war with McGuinty and the anti-gay comments by that Sask CPOC MP have galvanized support for the Libs here in ON, most of it at the expense of the NDP. This increase in support wasn't the result of anything positive from Dion's Libs so it looks like it was caused by renewed fears over the CPOC's agenda. I've often wondered if Dion's stategy was to do as little as possible and to hope Harper and Layton screw up often enough to lose support. If so, it might work in ON but I doubt that it will do much for him anywhere else.

http://www.torontosun.com/News/Canada/2008/04/11/5254161-sun.html

Fri, April 11, 2008

NDP bleeding red: PollCanadians uncomfortable with Conservative social agenda move to back Liberals

By CHRISTINA SPENCER, NATIONAL BUREAU

OTTAWA -- The federal New Democrats are bleeding support to Stephane Dion's Liberals from soft-left voters who might be shifting parties to boost opposition to the Conservatives.

A Nanos Research poll for Sun Media indicates that nationally, the Liberals and Tories are deadlocked at 36% each among decided voters. But while neither party has sprinted ahead of the other, the numbers clearly show support sagging for the NDP.

Nationally, the party has dropped five percentage points in three months, from 19% to 14%. "That's a significant drop in a short period of time," said Nik Nanos, president of Nanos Research.

The poll was done between April 4 and April 9, during which time a Tory MP, Tom Lukiwski, came under fierce attack for a videotape of anti-gay insults.

FOLLOWED BYELECTIONS

The poll also followed four federal byelections (three won by the Liberals), and attacks by federal Tory finance minister Jim Flaherty on Ontario's management of its economy. Also since the last Nanos poll, Dion has struggled with talk of mutiny among federal Liberals in Quebec and found himself in a tight corner on changes to immigration.

There has been virtually no shift among Quebec voters over the past three months, however. Yet the poll shows big movements in Ontario, where Liberal support surged to 50% from 43%, and NDP support tumbled from 19% to 13%. (The Tories remained steady at about 32%).

Nanos speculated that some NDP supporters have hinged themselves to the Liberals because of the Lukiwski affair. Lukiwski's anti-gay remarks reminded many NDP backers "of why they are uncomfortable with the Conservatives," said Nanos.

"So at this point, they are moving to the Liberals" as a strategic home. The affair is "reactivating suspicion of a very socially conservative agenda" among the Tories.

Another factor in the Liberals' Ontario fortunes may be byelection wins by Martha Hall Findlay and ex-NDP premier Bob Rae. "I don't think it hurt the Liberals to have a former leader of the Ontario NDP win a byelection" for them, noted Nanos.

The NDP fell in the standings in the Atlantic region, Ontario and the West.

While Dion has come under heavy criticism for what the Tories, NDP and some analysts see as waffling on issues such as immigration, his actions don't seem to have affected voters.

 

[train]

Keep up the brave face slowpoke.

The byelection stuff is a nice try but old and ignores the fact that the Libs came out of it with one fewer seats than they started with. They ended up with a bright guy that destroyed Ontario and a woman that couldn't beat Belinda Stronach.

My point was that the Libs right now seem to be totally devoid of any moral compass and they just keep on shooting themselves in the foot.

The Conservatives have made many blunders on their own in the last 6 months and they have to put up with the odd redneck MP who occasionaly stick their foot in their mouths. Flaherty stooping to McQuinty's level, the Cadman bribe attempt etc . But it keeps getting overshadowed by the "in-your-face" unprincipled behaviour of the Libs.

They could easily beat the Conservatives if they just developed a backbone and some principles.

 

[slowpoke]

Keep up the brave face slowpoke.

The byelection stuff is a nice try but old and ignores the fact that the Libs came out of it with one fewer seats than they started with. They ended up with a bright guy that destroyed Ontario and a woman that couldn't beat Belinda Stronach.

My point was that the Libs right now seem to be totally devoid of any moral compass and they just keep on shooting themselves in the foot.

The Conservatives have made many blunders on their own in the last 6 months and they have to put up with the odd redneck MP who occasionaly stick their foot in their mouths. Flaherty stooping to McQuinty's level, the Cadman bribe attempt etc . But it keeps getting overshadowed by the "in-your-face" unprincipled behaviour of the Libs.

What brave face? I heard about this poll on 680 news this morning and I was as surprised as everyone else that Dion's support had increased. It also occurred to me that the poll's results are contrary to what you'd predicted earlier in this thread when you said: "Do they [Liberals] have such contempt for the public that they think we don't notice this ?" Apparently not. You've repeatedly said that Dion would lose credibility for supporting Harper's bills rather than sticking to his guns and forcing an election. But the voters don't want an election so it doesn't seem to bother them in the slightest that Dion is trying his best to avoid one. You see Dion abandoning his principles but the public may just see a guy bending over backwards to avoid an unnecessary and unwanted election - one that wouldn't change a goddam thing anyway.

On the other hand, the CPOC's behaviour does seem to bother Ontario voters. It bothers them to the extent that a surprisingly large number of them have just moved over to Dion. However badly ON voters think of Dion, they must think Harper is even worse. Poll says so. I predicted this when Flaherty wouldn't stop mouthing off at us. I was right.

 

[train]

What brave face? I heard about this poll on 680 news this morning and I was as surprised as everyone else that Dion's support had increased. It also occurred to me that the poll's results are contrary to what you'd predicted earlier in this thread when you said: "Do they [Liberals] have such contempt for the public that they think we don't notice this ?" Apparently not. You've repeatedly said that Dion would lose credibility for supporting Harper's bills rather than sticking to his guns and forcing an election. But the voters don't want an election so it doesn't seem to bother them in the slightest that Dion is trying his best to avoid one. You see Dion abandoning his principles but the public may just see a guy bending over backwards to avoid an unnecessary and unwanted election - one that wouldn't change a goddam thing anyway.

On the other hand, the CPOC's behaviour does seem to bother Ontario voters. It bothers them to the extent that a surprisingly large number of them have just moved over to Dion. However badly ON voters think of Dion, they must think Harper is even worse. Poll says so. I predicted this when Flaherty wouldn't stop mouthing off at us. I was right.

Gee, last week the polls said Dion was at an all time low. Newspapers in Montreal this week are full of stories about how the Liberals might end up 4th in the province behind the Bloc,Conservatives and now the NDP. They are actually only a couple of percentage points ahead of the NDP now. Both are double digits behind the Bloc and Conservatives.

Not sure what polls 680 are talking about. Don't forget a move from 18% support to 19% would still be called an increase

The only thing that is keeping the Libs from getting decimated is that the multi-cultural communities of large urban centres doesn't trust the Conservatives because of the western red-neck brand that the party unfortunately has. That's why I said that a Liberal party with morals and a backbone should easily win.

 

[slowpoke]

Gee, last week the polls said Dion was at an all time low. Newspapers in Montreal this week are full of stories about how the Liberals might end up 4th in the province behind the Bloc,Conservatives and now the NDP. They are actually only a couple of percentage points ahead of the NDP now. Both are double digits behind the Bloc and Conservatives.

Not sure what polls 680 are talking about. Don't forget a move from 18% support to 19% would still be called an increase

The only thing that is keeping the Libs from getting decimated is that the multi-cultural communities of large urban centres doesn't trust the Conservatives because of the western red-neck brand that the party unfortunately has. That's why I said that a Liberal party with morals and a backbone should easily win.

Even though ON voters clearly think Harper is a better leader than Dion, they don't trust the CPOC brand and, increasingly, they'd vote for the Liberals if an election was called. This is from a Nov 2007 Nanos Research (SES) article showing the Libs at 43% in ON compared to CPOC's 32%. Since that time, the Libs have jumped 7% to 50% and the CPOC haven't moved.

http://www.torontosun.com/News/Columnists/Weston_Greg/2007/11/15/4657060-sun.php

..."As always, the real story is not in the overall standings that show the Conservatives with 35% of the decided vote; Liberals 34%; NDP 17%; Bloc 9%; and Greens 6%.

In Quebec, for instance, the province that once gave the Grits almost all of its 75 federal seats is rapidly becoming a Liberal wasteland as the Conservatives increase their lead as the federalist party of choice.

But it is in Ontario that we find what we unscientifically call the fence-post syndrome -- as in the Liberals could be led by one and still get elected.

It doesn't seem to matter that only 18 out of the 1004 voters surveyed by SES thought Dion was a "good leader."

The SES-Sun Media survey shows that in a race to the ballot box, the Liberals would command 43% of the vote, a full 11 points ahead of Harper and the Conservatives.

Since Ontario has more than a third of all the seats in Parliament, the current level of Liberal support in the province would make it virtually impossible for Harper to come anywhere close to winning a majority.

No wonder Western voters look east and throw up their hands in despair.

So, what the heck are we thinking? SES pollster Nik Nanos says it is clear that voters are not being moved by the relative strengths and weaknesses of the various leaders.

That is not to say Canadians are ambivalent on the issue: A majority of those surveyed indicated they don't particularly like any of the leaders.

If leadership isn't the ballot question, Nanos says, the Conservatives may be wasting their time and money on attack ads and otherwise kicking Dion while he is down.

"So far, the Conservatives have been going after the weakest element of the Liberal party ... rather than recognizing they are really fighting an entrenched machine, a strong Liberal brand, especially in Ontario.

GAINS IN QUEBEC

"By contrast, in Quebec, where the Liberal brand was trashed by the sponsorship scandal, the Conservatives have been able to make significant gains."

Nanos suggests traditional political strategies such as enticing voters with tax cuts may not pack the electoral punch they once did.

"Voters are becoming much more cynical of all parties; it doesn't matter how good a budget is ... They expect government to do the right thing. They expect tax cuts."

Nanos says the polling results on leadership and party popularity, taken together, should be "a big wake-up call for all parties and politicians."

"A party that can offer a genuine and positive vision for the country could be quite successful in this environment."

 

[lookingforitallthetime]

Latest poll has the Liberals at 50% in Ontario. That pretty much guarantees the Liberals a min. of 100 seats nationwide. The Conservatives have had power for 2 years and they still can't make a break through. Tsk Tsk

bbk

Do you have a link to this latest poll? That sounds very high.

If this was a Liberal Party poll the numbers would make sense. The party only has enough money to poll 6 people.

 

[LancsLad]

Harper is a fuck-up.

And you arrived at this conclusion how?????????


I know Stephen and will pass on your wishes. Please provide your address and we will have a "gift" package delivered.

 

[danmand]

If this was a Liberal Party poll the numbers would make sense. The party only has enough money to poll 6 people.

The conservatives have nothing to worry about.

 

[slowpoke]

Do you have a link to this latest poll? That sounds very high.

If this was a Liberal Party poll the numbers would make sense. The party only has enough money to poll 6 people.

It was a Nanos Research (formerly SES) poll conducted for the Sun. I pasted most of the article and the link in the 3rd post of this thread. And you're right about a 7% jump (to 50% support) in ON seeming pretty high. That's what caught my attention in the first place. I thought Dion's support was dropping like a rock right across the board.

http://www.torontosun.com/News/Canada/2008/04/11/5254161-sun.html

 

[train]

I guess you can fool Toronto voters all of the time. Urban Ontario seems to be their last bastion of support at the moment.

This poll was taken BEFORE the Liberals voted for the new immigration bill. Wonder if they would poll so well with the new immigrants if they were informed about this.

 

[slowpoke]

I guess you can fool Toronto voters all of the time. Urban Ontario seems to be their last bastion of support at the moment.

This poll was taken BEFORE the Liberals voted for the new immigration bill. Wonder if they would poll so well with the new immigrants if they were informed about this.

These recent polls and newspaper articles indicate that Dion has very low levels of personal support across the country. That includes ON. But the polls are also showing that Ontarians remain loyal to the Liberal brand. ON voters would vote for the party and what it stands for regardless of how many times Dion foolishly threatens to bring down the gov't and then backs down. This isn't about Dion and his leadership problems anymore. That's why Harper can move the yardsticks here in ON. He's done a real hatchet job on Dion the individual but he needs to attack Liberalism itself. That's the part that he doesn't understand.

We're seeing the same kind of unconditional loyalty in Alberta except they're staunchly conservative. It's a waste of time and money for any non-conservative party to even run in Alberta. Voters there seem to have been programmed at birth to only vote conservative.

 

[LancsLad]

I find this whole thing humourous as the title has the word " credibility" and the words "federal liberals" in the same sentence.



Too funny



.

 

[Neverenuff$]

On his stellar track record from the time he took office - The PC's have been so blatantly obvious in everything they've done is based on trying to get enough votes and seats in the next election to form a majority government. .

Now why would any politician want seats ?

 

[train]

A lot of people on this thread seem to think the Liberal reluctance to throw out the Conservatives is due to a lack of leadership or fear of an election. It is not.

bbk

You are wrong on this point. Dion and Iggt have wanted to call an election but were not allowed by the party Hierarchy. This has been reported several times recently and not denied. Originally it was to wait for the by-elections but those results were worse than expected , losing one seat and the race being much closer in Vancouver than expected.

The Liberals have overwhelming support in Toronto, London and Ottawa and fairly good support in Vancouver. Their support is poor in other urban centers such as Montreal, Quebec City, Calgary, Edmonton and Halifax.

Like the Conservatives they have become a regional party. One with no credibility as they spout one position and vote another just days later.

 

[TQM]

(ahem)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080411.WBwblogolitics20080411110519/WBStory/WBwblogolitics/?page=rss&id=RTGAM.20080411.WBwblogolitics20080411110519

Notes: Historically, Liberals won majorities because Progressive Conservative strength was heavily concentrated in particular regions - meaning that the PC's tended to be "underrepresented in parliament." Their percentage of the total vote was often greater than their percentage of the number of seats.

This has long been an issue for the NDP as well - for the opposite reason! The NDP's support would be so diffuse that they won fewer seats as a percentage than popular vote as a percentage.

Traditionally, the Liberals had support across the nation, but particularly in Ontario and Quebec and could pick up enough seats in the Maritimes, BC, Saskatchewan, (and a few in Manitoba, and 1 or 2 in Alberta). They could turn this into a majority, in spite of getting less than 50% of the total vote.

The trend is for this to reverse. The Conservatives may well end up with proportionally more seats than the Liberals, even though the polls indicate a statistical dead heat.

Gains for the Liberals aren't easy to see, currently. West of Ontario, it's possible, but rather unlikely, that they pick up much. There isn't much room for growth in Ontario, where they already hold most seats. The same is true in the maritimes. The only possibility for growth is in Quebec, but Liberal support there is low - so the only hope is that the non Liberal support gets split badly between the Conservatives, and their friends, the Bloc.

Really, I don't see things as being interesting for the Liberals unless they get their popular vote to 39% or higher.

 

[slowpoke]

The Liberals are polling way ahead of Conservatives and the NDP in urban centers across Canada ... so fooling Toronto voters is a typical anti Toronto sentiment that Western Conservatives have and promote.

As for the immigration bill ... in the next election look for changes being recommended in the Liberal platform which will negate the concerns you have about the polls ... in the meantime Liberals will be content to let Harper spin his way out this one. If you think this is bad for Liberals, it will be doubly bad for Harper since this is an area he needs to form a majority.

As for this 50% number being all Toronto ... nope, you see this trend in NDP areas along with the ridings that Conservatives got in the last election with a very slim majority. There are now 20 Conservative seats outside Toronto that are now in serious trouble. The NDP are in big trouble in Windsor and Hamilton and you could see at net swing in seats of as much as 30.

A lot of people on this thread seem to think the Liberal reluctance to throw out the Conservatives is due to a lack of leadership or fear of an election. It is not. The biggest problem is that no matter you do the math , neither the Conservatives or the Liberals can form a majority at this time. A Liberal minority at this time with a recession about to hit Quebec and Ontario would hang the economy on them 6 months from now giving the Conservatives a huge argument for a Conservative Majority. This is far riskier for the Liberals than it is for the Conservatives ... because Conservatives right now can maintain the bully pulpit and manage their way out of this and a new Liberal minority wouldn't be able to. This is why Conservatives want an election now ... if the status quo remains, a Conservative minority, they continue on their way, if a Liberal minority comes they hammer away on the economy until they can sink the Liberals for a majority.

All this is about is strategic politics at it's best ... I give high marks to Dion for not taking the bait and not letting his pride get the better of him.

bbk

Interesting analysis. I hope you're right. I have no problem with Dion supporting Harper as far into the recession as possible. But I wish he'd find a way to communicate his disagreement with initiatives like the immigration bill without always threatening to bring down the gov't. Dion paints himself into a corner with these empty threats and then he has to back down and support Harper's bills in the house. Surely he could state his opposition and point out that a Liberal gov't would make changes to Harper's bill if it was elected. But leave out the empty threats. They make him look weak and inept when he may actually be following a worthwhile strategy.

 

[train]

I have no problem with Dion supporting Harper as far into the recession as possible. .

Isn't this just admitting that they don't have any bright ideas how to manage in a recession so thy'd rather the blame falls on the Conseratives?

Not exactly inspiring leadership is it ?

On the other point raised in this thread about regional support. It would appear that we are evolving into the same entrenched regional political support bases as the US has. Very few "swing" states and very few swing regions in Canada now.

 

[slowpoke]

Isn't this just admitting that they don't have any bright ideas how to manage in a recession so thy'd rather the blame falls on the Conseratives?

Not exactly inspiring leadership is it ?

On the other point raised in this thread about regional support. It would appear that we are evolving into the same entrenched regional political support bases as the US has. Very few "swing" states and very few swing regions in Canada now.

I think inpiration has very little to do with it. Self preservation may be more to the point. Dion could be stalling in every way possible so Harper has no choice but to stay in power until the recession shits all over him. Never mind leadership at this point. This is all about tactics. If the US economy falters, we'll suffer too and whoever is in power will get the blame. Harper has already refused to help ON's mfrs like that Ford plant in Windsor and his sidekick is busily giving economic advice to ON so them figure it out. Dion is not an idiot. Also, neither side can obtain anything more than a minority so Dion would be a sitting duck as a minority leader with a recession swirling around him. No thanks.