Dion Could Go 0 for 3 Today

[train]

Voters in three Quebec ridings vote today in federal byelections. There is a fair chance that the Pc's, NDP and Bloc will each win a seat and the Liberals will be shut out.

The NDP is surprisingly leading the polls in Outremont ( Montreal) which is a mixed weathy francophone and ethnic riding. This would be extremely embarassing for Dion as this riding has been a Liberal stronghold for 80 years and Dion has handpicked the Liberal candidate.

In an odd bit of spin-doctoring - despite the fact that if he is going to lose the seat it will be to the NDP, Dion blames the situation on the Conservatives.

The concern is evident as the Liberals are pulling out all the stops to try to recover . They have even flown Ken Dryden and other leading Liberals into the riding to help campaign.

 

[TQM]

It's actually very interesting....

The Liberals get their squeakiest clean leader ever (since Pearson anyway) - and a fairly bright guy too, and yet it's possible he's going to squander the opportunities Harper has given him.

We'll soon see.

 

[slowpoke]

Voters in three Quebec ridings vote today in federal byelections. There is a fair chance that the Pc's, NDP and Bloc will each win a seat and the Liberals will be shut out.

The NDP is surprisingly leading the polls in Outremont ( Montreal) which is a mixed weathy francophone and ethnic riding. This would be extremely embarassing for Dion as this riding has been a Liberal stronghold for 80 years and Dion has handpicked the Liberal candidate.

In an odd bit of spin-doctoring - despite the fact that if he is going to lose the seat it will be to the NDP, Dion blames the situation on the Conservatives.

The concern is evident as the Liberals are pulling out all the stops to try to recover . They have even flown Ken Dryden and other leading Liberals into the riding to help campaign.

From the few snippets I've seen of Dion, he seems to be leaning into the same political space as the NDP ie: more to the left than Martin was. He's letting Harper take the valuable centre and he'll just split the vote on the left. I was hoping he had a plan but it doesn't look like it. He hasn't come up with any signature issues that set him apart. The Greens own the environment and the Liberals are getting the blame for not pursuing Kyoto. The Liberals also sent troops into the Kandahar region in Afghanistan so they are vulnerable there too. He needs to get people thinking about another issue like maybe tax cuts and debt reduction - things Harper forgot he was supposed to be doing.

 

[train]

From the few snippets I've seen of Dion, he seems to be leaning into the same political space as the NDP ie: more to the left than Martin was. He's letting Harper take the valuable centre and he'll just split the vote on the left. I was hoping he had a plan but it doesn't look like it. He hasn't come up with any signature issues that set him apart. The Greens own the environment and the Liberals are getting the blame for not pursuing Kyoto. The Liberals also sent troops into the Kandahar region in Afghanistan so they are vulnerable there too. He needs to get people thinking about another issue like maybe tax cuts and debt reduction - things Harper forgot he was supposed to be doing.

I think you are correct he, and the Liberals , have no particular identity at the moment. The problem he has is that he was elected leader to deliver the Quebec vote ( otherwise it would have been Iggy). A poor showing today would take a lot of shine off of that concept.

 

[red]

will these byelections make any real change in the gov't?

 

[slowpoke]

I think you are correct he, and the Liberals , have no particular identity at the moment. The problem he has is that he was elected leader to deliver the Quebec vote ( otherwise it would have been Iggy). A poor showing today would take a lot of shine off of that concept.

If he loses Outremont, it may be attributed to a strong NDP candidate rather than anything Dion did. But he's been so tentative in his leadership that he could easily end up getting the blame for the loss of a Liberal stronghold. It might also snap him out of his current drift and get him moving. Either way, he'd better start pushing some buttons soon or he'll be political road kill.

 

[cancowboy2001]

If he loses Outremont, it may be attributed to a strong NDP candidate rather than anything Dion did. But he's been so tentative in his leadership that he could easily end up getting the blame for the loss of a Liberal stronghold. It might also snap him out of his current drift and get him moving. Either way, he'd better start pushing some buttons soon or he'll be political road kill.

Dion has to bear some responsibility - he hand-picked the candidate (Coulon) otherwise Justin(?) Trudeau probably would have gotten the nomination and easily won the riding.

 

[slowpoke]

Dion has to bear some responsibility - he hand-picked the candidate (Coulon) otherwise Justin(?) Trudeau probably would have gotten the nomination and easily won the riding.

Since Dion hand picked Coulon, I'd have to agree. But the NDP candidate is a popular former Liberal cabinet minister so it is possible that many of the constituents still think of him as a Liberal. Thus it becomes harder to interpret their votes for him as anti-Liberal or anti-Dion. I also get the sense that Quebecers are hard to poll accurately because they say one thing to the pollsters and then do the opposite on election day. We'll know very soon.

 

[slowpoke]

will these byelections make any real change in the gov't?

If it comes down to a close vote to keep the Harper gov't afloat, an extra NDP seat is an extra vote for Harper. Layton can be counted on to support the CPOC as long as they let him wear his Robin Hood outfit.

 

[train]

If it comes down to a close vote to keep the Harper gov't afloat, an extra NDP seat is an extra vote for Harper. Layton can be counted on to support the CPOC as long as they let him wear his Robin Hood outfit.

Layton is a publicity and image whore so ya you're right on that call.

 

[train]

.......possible that many of the constituents still think of him as a Liberal. Thus it becomes harder to interpret their votes for him as anti-Liberal or anti-Dion. We'll know very soon.

A bit of a stretch or perhaps wishful thinking. The most positive spin you could put on this from a Liberal standpoint is that Outremont wanted Trudeau and this is a protest vote for Dion rigging the local nomination.

 

[slowpoke]

A bit of a stretch or perhaps wishful thinking. The most positive spin you could put on this from a Liberal standpoint is that Outremont wanted Trudeau and this is a protest vote for Dion rigging the local nomination.

Maybe not. Mulcair was well known and popular when he was a provincial Liberal so there may be a fair amount of personal loyalty at play. Also, the NDP are not that far away from Dion's Liberals politically so voter sentiment becomes difficult to read. Dion would probably have been hammered if he'd let Trudeau just waltz in and have the safe Outremont riding so he was caught between a rock and a hard place on that one. For every person who'd punish him for that, there is probably another who figured he was right to make Trudeau earn his spurs like anyone else. Tough call.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/serv.../LAC/20070915/BYELECTIONS15/national/National

Some members of Mr. Dion's caucus, however, play down the symbolic importance of the by-elections, noting that the results don't always reflect what would happen in a general election because turnouts are lower and the national issues play differently.

Raymonde Folco, the Liberal MP for the suburban Montreal riding of Laval-Les Îles, noted that the NDP's Mr. Mulcair is a well-known former provincial Liberal cabinet minister, and said some voters still believe he's a Liberal. And she said she does not believe a loss would spark a putsch against the leader.

 

[train]

Raymonde Folco, the Liberal MP for the suburban Montreal riding of Laval-Les Îles, noted that the NDP's Mr. Mulcair is a well-known former provincial Liberal cabinet minister, and said some voters still believe he's a Liberal. And she said she does not believe a loss would spark a putsch against the leader.

You, or she, really think that voters are that stupid ? Two Liberal candidates in the same riding c'mon

What it says to me is that the Liberals are very very afraid and they are trying to prepare a soft landing (excuse) for this flop because in Outremont even a close win for the Liberals will be seen as a negative.

 

[cancowboy2001]

CBC has Liberals losing all 3 byelections

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/montreal/story/2007/09/17/qc-byelections0917.html

The Liberal Party of Canada appears to have been shut out of three byelections in Quebec.

Thomas Mulcair, a newcomer to the NDP, has won the Montreal riding of Outremont, according to CBC News.

Conservative candidate Denis Lebel sailed to victory in the Saguenay-region riding of Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean, with 172 of 194 polls reporting.

And in Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot, east of Montreal, Bloc candidate Ève-Mary Thai Thi Lac has a slim lead on Conservative Bernard Barré.

 

[LancsLad]

Maybe da dionne guy, e take da walk in da snow.

 

[pussylicker]

Maybe da dionne guy, e take da walk in da snow.

Are you making fun of Pierre?

Da leetle RAT Dion couldn't fill any of the shoes of the former Lieberal leaders.
Ee's alf Canadjien. Ee claymz dat da snow eez melting, so ee can't tayk dat walk en da snow. Ee claymz dat ownlee ee can feex Canadja'z eekunomee, envyrunment, an bring sowshall juztize to all Canadjienz.

Sounds like a loser to me.

 

[train]

Say goodnight Dion.

Spin this however you want but he tried hard to win this one and he had his lunch handed to him.

 

[slowpoke]

Say goodnight Dion.

Spin this however you want but he tried hard to win this one and he had his lunch handed to him.

They were scrambling at the end when the polls showed them that this wasn't going to be a cakewalk. But they were slow off the mark compared to Mulcair who'd hit the ground running. So you can add sloppy organization to the list of Liberal shortcomings on this one. It might have made a difference but the reasons could also be much more fundamental.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/serv.../LAC/20070915/BYELECTIONS15/national/National

...Mr. Mulcair was more ebullient, boasting that his troops, knowing a by-election had to be called, were working weeks before the campaign began and had signs up the day the writ was dropped - while the Liberals were inexplicably caught flat-footed."...

 

[onthebottom]

I'm waiting for bbk to make sense of this for me....

OTB

 

[LancsLad]

I'm waiting for bbk to make sense of this for me....

OTB

I'm betting the next ice age gets here first.