Felicity Bradstock -
Feb 16, 2025
Since President Trump decided to withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement, there has been rising concern that the U.S. absence from the global accord will create a leadership vacuum, which could threaten climate progress. This has encouraged other member states to double down on their commitment to the agreement and private donors to offer funding for global climate efforts. Nevertheless, greater action must be taken to ensure that the U.S. withdrawal does not have a knock-on effect on global climate progress.
Under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, member states must submit detailed plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), with clear decarbonisation targets, every five years. The deadline for this round of NDCs was 10th February, to be nine months ahead of the Brazil COP30 climate summit in November. However, almost all member states have missed the recent deadline, with just 10 countries submitting their NDCs. Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, and the U.K. were among the countries to submit their new plans on time.
As one of his last acts as President of the U.S., Joe Biden also submitted a new NDC, although this is not expected to be followed by President Trump as he withdraws the U.S. from the Paris Agreement. However, it may be used as a benchmark for state governments and the private sector to follow. The U.S. remains the world's second-biggest greenhouse gas emitter, which means not following Biden’s NDCs would be extremely detrimental to global decarbonisation efforts. Meanwhile, China, India, and the European Union were just some of the members to miss the NDC deadline.
n terms of the knock-on effect of Trump’s climate decisions on the rest of the world, heavy polluters, such as China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and several petrostates may feel an ease in pressure to rapidly decarbonise. These countries are expected to provide less ambitious NDCs under the Trump administration than the Biden administration, with the change in the U.S. government being partially blamed for delays in the submission of NDCs from other member states.
Li Shuo, the director of the China climate hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, explained, “The U.S. backsliding is definitely not good news for China’s climate ambition and global climate action… But China is at the very forefront of the low-carbon economy, which is already yielding a lot of benefits. And China wants to project stability and predictability, on the international stage.”
Although China is the world’s biggest carbon emitter, still heavily reliant on fossil fuels including coal, it could see the U.S. withdrawal from the climate pact as an opportunity to take a more leading role in the global green transition.
When it comes to climate funding, the U.S. was one of the largest contributors to the Green Climate Fund(GCF), which provides financial aid to developing countries for climate change mitigation and green transition projects. In December, under the Biden administration, the U.S. pledged $3 billion to the GCF. Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and general climate funding will leave a significant funding void, which will likely result in slower climate action in many developing countries, unless other member states step in.
“If pledges are not fully realized, our ability to support the climate ambitions of developing countries will be constrained,” the GCF said. The U.S. funding cut could also diminish the sense of shared responsibility among nations contributing to the fund, creating a leadership vacuum.
In response to the U.S. U-turn on climate action under Trump, several other member states have doubled down on their commitment to fighting climate change at a global level. Simon Stiell, the Executive Secretary of The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), stated, “A country may step back, but others are already stepping into their place to seize the opportunity, and to reap the massive rewards: stronger economic growth, more jobs, less pollution and far lower health costs, more secure and affordable energy.”
Following news of the U.S. withdrawal, Stiell encouraged countries to prepare stronger NDCs ahead of COP30. “The call is for greater ambition, for these plans to be economy-wide. These will be the most comprehensive climate plans ever developed, the third generation of NDCs. We'll be able to give better commentary as we synthesize that toward the end of the year,” said Stiell.
Although many countries remain committed to the Paris Agreement objectives, the accord lacks enforceability, meaning that individual countries and regions must define their own goal and take climate action in line with these targets to drive a global green transition. Whether member states will develop more ambitious NDCs or water them down in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from the agreement is yet to be seen but will likely become clearer by COP30 in November.
oilprice.com
Feb 16, 2025
- The United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement has raised concerns about a leadership vacuum and its potential negative impact on global climate progress.
- Many countries missed the deadline for submitting their updated national decarbonization plans (NDCs), further complicating efforts to address climate change.
- The US was a major contributor to the Green Climate Fund, and its withdrawal threatens funding for climate change mitigation projects in developing countries.
Since President Trump decided to withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement, there has been rising concern that the U.S. absence from the global accord will create a leadership vacuum, which could threaten climate progress. This has encouraged other member states to double down on their commitment to the agreement and private donors to offer funding for global climate efforts. Nevertheless, greater action must be taken to ensure that the U.S. withdrawal does not have a knock-on effect on global climate progress.
Under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, member states must submit detailed plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), with clear decarbonisation targets, every five years. The deadline for this round of NDCs was 10th February, to be nine months ahead of the Brazil COP30 climate summit in November. However, almost all member states have missed the recent deadline, with just 10 countries submitting their NDCs. Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, and the U.K. were among the countries to submit their new plans on time.
As one of his last acts as President of the U.S., Joe Biden also submitted a new NDC, although this is not expected to be followed by President Trump as he withdraws the U.S. from the Paris Agreement. However, it may be used as a benchmark for state governments and the private sector to follow. The U.S. remains the world's second-biggest greenhouse gas emitter, which means not following Biden’s NDCs would be extremely detrimental to global decarbonisation efforts. Meanwhile, China, India, and the European Union were just some of the members to miss the NDC deadline.
n terms of the knock-on effect of Trump’s climate decisions on the rest of the world, heavy polluters, such as China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and several petrostates may feel an ease in pressure to rapidly decarbonise. These countries are expected to provide less ambitious NDCs under the Trump administration than the Biden administration, with the change in the U.S. government being partially blamed for delays in the submission of NDCs from other member states.
Li Shuo, the director of the China climate hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, explained, “The U.S. backsliding is definitely not good news for China’s climate ambition and global climate action… But China is at the very forefront of the low-carbon economy, which is already yielding a lot of benefits. And China wants to project stability and predictability, on the international stage.”
Although China is the world’s biggest carbon emitter, still heavily reliant on fossil fuels including coal, it could see the U.S. withdrawal from the climate pact as an opportunity to take a more leading role in the global green transition.
When it comes to climate funding, the U.S. was one of the largest contributors to the Green Climate Fund(GCF), which provides financial aid to developing countries for climate change mitigation and green transition projects. In December, under the Biden administration, the U.S. pledged $3 billion to the GCF. Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and general climate funding will leave a significant funding void, which will likely result in slower climate action in many developing countries, unless other member states step in.
“If pledges are not fully realized, our ability to support the climate ambitions of developing countries will be constrained,” the GCF said. The U.S. funding cut could also diminish the sense of shared responsibility among nations contributing to the fund, creating a leadership vacuum.
In response to the U.S. U-turn on climate action under Trump, several other member states have doubled down on their commitment to fighting climate change at a global level. Simon Stiell, the Executive Secretary of The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), stated, “A country may step back, but others are already stepping into their place to seize the opportunity, and to reap the massive rewards: stronger economic growth, more jobs, less pollution and far lower health costs, more secure and affordable energy.”
Following news of the U.S. withdrawal, Stiell encouraged countries to prepare stronger NDCs ahead of COP30. “The call is for greater ambition, for these plans to be economy-wide. These will be the most comprehensive climate plans ever developed, the third generation of NDCs. We'll be able to give better commentary as we synthesize that toward the end of the year,” said Stiell.
Although many countries remain committed to the Paris Agreement objectives, the accord lacks enforceability, meaning that individual countries and regions must define their own goal and take climate action in line with these targets to drive a global green transition. Whether member states will develop more ambitious NDCs or water them down in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from the agreement is yet to be seen but will likely become clearer by COP30 in November.
Climate Action Momentum Stalls After U.S. Policy Reversal | OilPrice.com
The US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement has created a leadership vacuum in global climate action, prompting calls for other nations to strengthen their commitments and financial support to mitigate the impact on climate progress and developing countries.
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