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Carbon Credits

train

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On a simplistic level I understand the concept behind Kyoto. There was also a story in the Toronto Globe & Mail yesterday about how it is likely that a system of carbon credits will be recommended by to the Government by some long ago appointed Commission as a key element of a plan to reduce emissions in Canada. The Payers will be the oil industry but I'm not exactly sure where the money goes.

On some foggy fundemental level I understand that if you make something more costly it will likely be used less but that's about as far as my understanding goes. I worry about anything meaningful upsetting , what is an already fragile, economic apple cart. Conversely anything which is only cosmetic would be doomed to failure.

The question I have is has this type of disincentive system been effective in the past somewhere ? I mean it must have been because everyone keeps recommending some kind of version of it.

You can't use Kyoto as an example since it really hasn't started yet although I never understood how forking out to Russia ( solely because their baseline levels were set too high) and China (emerging nation but one of the biggest greenhouse gas emmitters) was going to accomplish anything. I mean China would probably use the credits to finance coal generation plants or something equally ludicrous.

Can someone enlighten me with any past examples of something like this working?
 

slowpoke

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train said:
On a simplistic level I understand the concept behind Kyoto. There was also a story in the Toronto Globe & Mail yesterday about how it is likely that a system of carbon credits will be recommended by to the Government by some long ago appointed Commission as a key element of a plan to reduce emissions in Canada. The Payers will be the oil industry but I'm not exactly sure where the money goes.

On some foggy fundemental level I understand that if you make something more costly it will likely be used less but that's about as far as my understanding goes. I worry about anything meaningful upsetting , what is an already fragile, economic apple cart. Conversely anything which is only cosmetic would be doomed to failure.

The question I have is has this type of disincentive system been effective in the past somewhere ? I mean it must have been because everyone keeps recommending some kind of version of it.

You can't use Kyoto as an example since it really hasn't started yet although I never understood how forking out to Russia ( solely because their baseline levels were set too high) and China (emerging nation but one of the biggest greenhouse gas emmitters) was going to accomplish anything. I mean China would probably use the credits to finance coal generation plants or something equally ludicrous.

Can someone enlighten me with any past examples of something like this working?
The example that comes to mind is the increased taxes on cigarettes that contributed to much lower rates of smoking. The problem with this example is that they introduced so many other anti-smoking laws, media campaigns etc, it is impossible to say which one of them caused the greatest change in peoples' behaviour. If liquor taxes were suddenly removed, it makes sense that alcohol consumption would increase too. The analysis in the attached CBC article makes it pretty clear that there will have to be a cost associated with carbon before any significant change will take place. I agree with this but it is hard to say exactly how this cost will be appied. If it is a federal carbon tax, the proceeds should go directly towards research into ways to reduce emissions in Canada and in less developed countries.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2008/01/07/climate-report.html

..."As long as there is free carbon, and carbon can be emitted freely, it will be extremely challenging to achieve any significant reductions," said Glen Murray, chair of the advisory panel, which is known as the National Round Table on Environment and the Economy.

"Right now greenhouse gases are emitted for free. There's no cost," Murray added, speaking at a press conference in Ottawa. "If something's free, then lots of people will do it."

The advisory panel, whose findings are not binding, has not recommended what the specific price of carbon should be or when the price should be implemented, although members suggest changes must be made as soon as possible, possibly within the next year.

Once a price is established, the panel recommends that Canada adopt a carbon tax and/or a cap-and-trade system based on that price.

A carbon tax would tax industries or consumers who produce carbon emissions. A cap-and-trade system would establish a limit on the amount of emissions an industry can produce, and any industries that exceed their limit could buy credits from those who don't."....
 

train

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slowpoke said:
The example that comes to mind is the increased taxes on cigarettes that contributed to much lower rates of smoking.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2008/01/07/climate-report.html

..."As long as there is free carbon, and carbon can be emitted freely, it will be extremely challenging to achieve any significant reductions," said Glen Murray, chair of the advisory panel, which is known as the National Round Table on Environment and the Economy.
Murray's explanation is so overly simplistic as to give me cause for concern. I hope there is some meat behind his conclusions. It's little more than a sound bite. Have gasoline taxes which are what ? 50% of the cost of a litre, significantly reduced consumption ? What would the taxes have to be before they did so and how would this effect employment etc

The cigarette example is also not the same for many reasons :

1.Energy is essential while cigs are just an addiction
2.The economy wouldn't blink if smoking disappeared
3.Everyone consumes energy
etc etc

Is anyone aware of any country that has actually adopted such measures ? If so have they had an impact?

IMHO if we bring this in the carbon tax should go soley to domestic alternative energy solutions and/or emission reduction technologies.
 

onthebottom

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You can always measure results...... but then economists hate when the theories don't match the results. I'd think you'd find emissions are up, some are paying for credits to assuage their guilt but that's not cooling the planet. Mid 60s here in Ohio in January.

OTB
 

slowpoke

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train said:
Murray's explanation is so overly simplistic as to give me cause for concern. I hope there is some meat behind his conclusions. It's little more than a sound bite. Have gasoline taxes which are what ? 50% of the cost of a litre, significantly reduced consumption ? What would the taxes have to be before they did so and how would this effect employment etc

The cigarette example is also not the same for many reasons :

1.Energy is essential while cigs are just an addiction
2.The economy wouldn't blink if smoking disappeared
3.Everyone consumes energy
etc etc

Is anyone aware of any country that has actually adopted such measures ? If so have they had an impact?

IMHO if we bring this in the carbon tax should go soley to domestic alternative energy solutions and/or emission reduction technologies.
1. We are effectively addicted to oil too. So tax penalties should have the same impact on excessive oil consumption that they do for alcohol and nicotine. A certain level of oil consumption is unavoidable but carbon taxes / carbon trading forces everyone to pay a lot more attention to it than they would if it was free. Look at the popularity of smaller cars. Do you think there would have been as much emphasis on building smaller cars if it weren't for the high costs of gas? This is just common sense.

2. I agree. Things change. The economy has been changing since day one. This will bring new challenges and opportunities but wealthy, educated and scientifically advanced countries like Canada are usually able to adapt and prosper.

3. Everyone will continue to use energy. But how much energy is really necessary and what about all the things we can do to control or capture the emissions? We can always find ways to consume a little less energy and to use it more cleanly.

This Pew Centre article talks about carbon taxes and trading.

http://www.pewclimate.org/press_room/opinion_editorials/oped_miamih07122007

..."As for the cap-and-trade system in Europe, it is actually a major success. The system covers more than 10,000 sources and has spawned a robust emissions trading market with millions of transactions per month.

So why the bum rap for cap-and-trade in Europe? It is a classic case of no good deed going unpunished. Cap-and-trade is the EU's primary means of complying with the Kyoto Protocol, which requires emissions reductions between 2008 and 2012. Looking ahead to the five-year ''compliance period,'' the EU wisely launched a ''learning phase'' for its emissions trading system. And, it has learned a lot.

For example, the European Union learned that its emissions data were flawed and that companies could reap windfall profits by reducing emissions much more cheaply than had been expected. The EU thus is rapidly improving its emission data, and in 2008 it will allocate a smaller percentage of emission allowances.

To commentators appalled that the EU's system thus far hasn't achieved significant emissions reductions or caused industry much pain, the response is clear: they weren't trying to reduce emissions yet. They were just getting their system up and running.

Both a carbon tax and a cap-and trade system would use economic incentives to drive emission reductions. Cap-and-trade, however, has some important advantages. It's more flexible for one, allowing you to link your system to other cap-and-trade systems around the world. In today's global economy, where companies operate in multiple countries at once, this kind of system has obvious advantages. Cap-and-trade also allows the ''banking'' of emission allowances - reducing emissions early and using the saved emission allowances for later.

But the key difference between a carbon tax and the cap-and-trade approach comes down to the issue of certainty. A tax provides for cost certainty; the cost is fixed because of the tax. Cap and trade, on the other hand, provides for environmental certainty. What's fixed is the cap itself -- and it is based on an assessment of the level of emissions you need to get to in order to protect the climate.

In response to a carbon tax, many emitters will reduce their emissions rather than pay the tax, but that result is not guaranteed. With Alaska and Greenland melting, and with droughts and other weather extremes on the rise, environmental certainty would seem to be the more compelling imperative.

Combine that with the fact that taxes are awfully hard to get through Congress, and the case for cap-and-trade is even stronger. Which just goes to show: We shouldn't let carbon-tax enthusiasts use false arguments to trash a politically feasible approach in favor of one with a snowball's chance in a warming world."

Also, a few more examples of emission trading schemes:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emissions_trading

Major trading systems

United States
A prominent example of an emission trading system is the SO2 trading system under the framework of the Acid Rain Program of the 1990 Clean Air Act in the USA. Under the program, which is essentially a cap-and-trade emissions trading system, SO2 emissions are expected to be reduced by 50% from 1980 to 2010.

Some experts argue that the "cap and trade" system of SO2 emissions reduction reduced the cost of controlling acid rain by as much as 80% versus source-by-source reduction.

In 1997, the State of Illinois adopted a trading program for volatile organic compounds in most of the Chicago area, called the Emissions Reduction Market System.[12] Beginning in 2000, over 100 major sources of pollution in 8 Illinois counties began trading pollution credits.

In 2003, New York State proposed and attained commitments from 9 Northeast states to form a cap and trade carbon dioxide emissions program for power generators, called the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative or RGGI. This program will officially launch on January 1, 2009, and by 2018 each state's carbon "budget" will be reduced 10% below their 2009 allowances.[13]

Also in 2003, corporations began voluntarily trading greenhouse gas emission allowances on the Chicago Climate Exchange.

In 2007, the California Legislature passed Ab-32, which was signed into law by Governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger. This bill is aimed at curbing Carbon emissions. Thus far, flexible mechanisms in the form of project based offsets have been established for 5 main project types. A carbon project creates offsets by showing that it has reduced carbon dioxide and equivalent gases. The project types include; manure management, forestry, building energy, SF6, and landfill gas capture. California is now one of five states and one Canadian province that have joined to create the Western Climate Initiative, intending to set up a regional greenhouse gas control and trading environment.
 

LancsLad

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This whole Carbon Tax/Credits scam is just another way the socialist do-gooders have devised to transfer wealth from us to the have nots.:mad:
 

train

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slowpoke said:
1



But the key difference between a carbon tax and the cap-and-trade approach comes down to the issue of certainty. A tax provides for cost certainty; the cost is fixed because of the tax. Cap and trade, on the other hand, provides for environmental certainty. What's fixed is the cap itself -- and it is based on an assessment of the level of emissions you need to get to in order to protect the climate.


.
Thanks for the examples slowpoke.

At the risk of sounding dense how does Cap and Trade provide certainty ? How do you enforce "Cap"? What happens if everyone exceeds Cap? What happens if you exceed and don't buy a credit from somewhere else or there isn't one available? How the hell do you measure emissions on a source by source basis ?

Why isn't Wall Street all over this ? Sounds like Europeans who figured out the game early made tons of money.

In the SO2 example a 50% reduction between 1980 and 2010 is impressive. That is just around the corner so they need to be very close now. If this is real why arn't people touting this success ? It seems to be the only example of actual reductions so far.

I've got a long way to go before I understand this.
 

train

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LancsLad said:
This whole Carbon Tax/Credits scam is just another way the socialist do-gooders have devised to transfer wealth from us to the have nots
I agree if you are talking between countries. Which is why Canada rightly wants emerging countries not exempt. Anyone who has seen Shanghai and wants to call China an emerging economy need a lobotomy.

I'm not sure what happens in an internal system. The trading bit would seem to open up the opportunity for the usual suspects tgo line their pockets :p
 

nervous

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Quick question. Oil has gone from $28/barrel to ~$100 per barrel in less than ten years (figures approximate), with our consumption rising on an exponential curve.

This begs the questions: how would a simple government 'tax' on this make a significant difference, except to have industry run to countries where there is no 'tax', such as some poor underdeveloped country....
 

LancsLad

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train said:
I agree if you are talking between countries. Which is why Canada rightly wants emerging countries not exempt. Anyone who has seen Shanghai and wants to call China an emerging economy need a lobotomy.

I'm not sure what happens in an internal system. The trading bit would seem to open up the opportunity for the usual suspects tgo line their pockets :p


I'm heading back to the PRC next week. Their development zones are booming. No way China should be exempt. Everyone on the same playing field or no one.
 

train

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nervous said:
Quick question. Oil has gone from $28/barrel to ~$100 per barrel in less than ten years (figures approximate), with our consumption rising on an exponential curve.

This begs the questions: how would a simple government 'tax' on this make a significant difference, except to have industry run to countries where there is no 'tax', such as some poor underdeveloped country....
This is my problem in understanding all this as well.
 

slowpoke

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train said:
Thanks for the examples slowpoke.

At the risk of sounding dense how does Cap and Trade provide certainty ? How do you enforce "Cap"? What happens if everyone exceeds Cap? What happens if you exceed and don't buy a credit from somewhere else or there isn't one available? How the hell do you measure emissions on a source by source basis ?

Why isn't Wall Street all over this ? Sounds like Europeans who figured out the game early made tons of money.

In the SO2 example a 50% reduction between 1980 and 2010 is impressive. That is just around the corner so they need to be very close now. If this is real why arn't people touting this success ? It seems to be the only example of actual reductions so far.

I've got a long way to go before I understand this.
I'm having problems with that notion of environmental certainty too. The only difference that I can see between a cap & trade and a carbon tax is that the tax would be at a known cost but your costs would fluctuate according to market conditions if you had to buy or trade to get credits from another company. But you're paying a penalty for excess emissions either way and nobody has any real certainty about the environmental impact unless we can get below the caps and really reduce emissions. Even then it isn't certain.

I don't know what the reason is for not using the S02 trading example but that scheme was specific to coal fired power plants so maybe that is too narrow an example to apply to the much broader range of industries that produce CO2. Regardless of the mechanism, it is the financial penalty for emitting carbon that drives companies to reduce emissions. If one company can retool or rebuild to reduce their emissions and sell surplus credits, the bottom line is that one company has now reduced emissions and the other company paid extra to not reduce theirs. Eventually, that other company will probably retool or rebuild to get below the cap too so they can sell credits instead of buying them. If there are no penalties, there will be very little incentive to change anything.
 

slowpoke

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Forget Kyoto. Think about what we can do in the next few years to curb emissions and to get others to do the same. Everyone goes apeshit because India & China were exempted from the first round of Kyoto but why aren't they equally outraged that the US is emitting about the same amount as China and refused to do much about it? On a per capita basis, China / India aren't emitting carbon at anywhere near the rate of Australia, US & Canada etc. We're much wealthier than they are and we've been pumping out way more than our share of carbon for well over a century. So why is the emphasis always on China? I don't get it.
 

slowpoke

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nervous said:
Quick question. Oil has gone from $28/barrel to ~$100 per barrel in less than ten years (figures approximate), with our consumption rising on an exponential curve.

This begs the questions: how would a simple government 'tax' on this make a significant difference, except to have industry run to countries where there is no 'tax', such as some poor underdeveloped country....
Per capita oil consumption is not rising much at all. It is population growth that is driving these consumption increases. So if each person is using the same amount of oil as in 1965, a consumption tax might persuade him/her to cut back a bit, buy a smaller car or take the odd subway etc. Check the graphs on page 3 showing our barrels per person per year consumption is flat from 1965 to 2006. Also, the cost of gasoline hasn't increased that much if you correct for inflation.


http://pages.ca.inter.net/~jhwalsh/oilcapv3pages.pdf
 

Dev0

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slowpoke said:
..."As long as there is free carbon, and carbon can be emitted freely, it will be extremely challenging to achieve any significant reductions," said Glen Murray, chair of the advisory panel, which is known as the National Round Table on Environment and the Economy.
Good ol Glen Murray! He was a complete disaster as the mayor of Winnipeg when I lived there. On several occasions he broke into tears when a debate didn't go his way. This guy couldn't manage a 7-11 never mind chair the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy. Why am I not surprised that he is involved in a scam like carbon credits.
 

K Douglas

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Dev0 said:
Good ol Glen Murray! He was a complete disaster as the mayor of Winnipeg when I lived there. On several occasions he broke into tears when a debate didn't go his way. This guy couldn't manage a 7-11 never mind chair the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy. Why am I not surprised that he is involved in a scam like carbon credits.
Priceless but spot on. He's a Liberal hack.
 

slowpoke

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Dev0 said:
Good ol Glen Murray! He was a complete disaster as the mayor of Winnipeg when I lived there. On several occasions he broke into tears when a debate didn't go his way. This guy couldn't manage a 7-11 never mind chair the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy. Why am I not surprised that he is involved in a scam like carbon credits.
I'd never heard of Glen Murray so I won't argue with your assessment. He left the mayor's office mid-term which is odd so you may be right about him. Having said that, he's only the chair. There are quite a few others involved in that roundtable and I can't imagine these others being overly influenced by Murray. The two vice-chairs are Robert Page and David Kerr - both with extensive credentials. Most of the other members of that roundtable seem highly qualified as well:

http://www.nrtee-trnee.ca/eng/overview/members/Kerr-David-eng.htm

http://www.nrtee-trnee.ca/eng/overview/members/Page-Robert-eng.htm

http://www.nrtee-trnee.ca/eng/overview/members/auto-generated-members-list-eng.html
 

FOOTSNIFFER

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Are you guys for real?

Think like a politician. No party wants to be responsible for imposing this 'tax'. Meanwhile, the cap and trade system targets the evil corporations. Of course, the pols know very well that these credits will cost consumers money, but it's the dastardly corporations who will be 'responsible' for this, for not doing their part to combat 'global warming'.

So the results: pols get browny points for 'doing something responsible for the environment' when they mandate the cap and trade system, accumulating political capital for doing so. And the corps get the wrap. Not only that, the pols get to oversee larger parts of the economy, they get leverage over all kinds of 'polluting' activities that corporations engage in, opening the door to them for doing their favoured companies or sectors 'favours' (which are returned in kind in the form of campaign donations or nice jobs when the pol retires).

Lancs in right...Let the shakedown begin.
 

lurkerjoe

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Want to reduce carbon emissions? Frickin' tax imports from China, India, US and other leading polluters! Plus the ships/planes/trucks that carry them over the border. Then reinvest the money on Canadians. I'm frickin' tired of being taxed here, there and everywhere.
 

mulletman66

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First of all Global warming is an absolute farse made up by the left to guilt you into believeing that we are powerful enough to not only destroy the planet but powerful enough to stop the polar ice caps from melting.

The earth has gone through warming and cooling cycles since the begining long before the industialization of America, Europe, or China. What caused it then is what causes it now. We are not powerful enough to do anything about it one way or another.

I am not saying that we should not be good stewards of God's Creation but I will not be guilted into anything by a Godless Liberal who suffers from a self soverign God Complex.

Dont forget, these same scientists who tout Global warming today are the same scientists who touted Global cooling in the 1960's and 1970's. So which is it??

In regards to Carbon Credits, This whole global warming belief is no more than a religion and its savior is AL Gore who Like the Pope in the middle ages lied to the church by telling the catholic parisheners that if they buy indulgences they can have thier sins absolved by the priests to aviod paying penance in pergatory. The only people who benfitted were the corrupt Pope and his priests who made a fortune on the backs of those who believed their lies.

Today we have a new religion. Earth Worship, Al Gore is the Pope and Carbon Credits are his selling of indulgences. The only person who stands to gain is Al Gore and the high priests of his church (Generation Investment Management). Its like buying stock in a company that does not exist, that will never yield a return, and you will never see the fruits of the money you have given. Its no different than giving Money to Jim and Tammy Faye Baker during the scandal years or to the guy in Africa who needs $1000 investment in order to release you funds that are locked up in a foreign bank in Nairobi or some shit.

This is the biggest Scam of this century and it is being perpetuated by the former vice president of the United States of America.

Call me what you want but make this as my prophesy, 20 years from now no one will be talking about C02 emissions and carbon credits.

Have we all forgotten what science has already proven?? The scientific term of Photosynthesis in which Plants use Co2 and water to produce oxygen for us to breathe. Plants breathe Co2. The more C02 we produce the more plants and trees can grow. It is a never ending process. This process alone debunks the whole global warming lie.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photosynthesis


http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=54528

http://riehlworldview.com/carnivorous_conservative/2007/03/al_gores_inconv.html

http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2007/2/28/142546.shtml

http://www.billhobbs.com/2007/02/more_on_gore.html

http://www.canadafreepress.com/2007/cover031307.htm

and the most interesting one regarding Al Gore and his lies concerning Canada
http://thelondonfog.blogspot.com/2007/04/al-gore-is-full-of-carbon-credits.html

Next week I will educate the Terb Masses about the Hole in the ozone layer.
 
Ashley Madison
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