Rise in mortgage interest cost is one of the main contributors to the year-over-year (12-month) nflation rate. The CPI data is somewhat flawed because it only factors in the rise in mortgage interest costs , but most variable rate payers then see a
decrease in principal payments. So, Stats Canada is only capturing the upside, artificially increasing the inflation rate.
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Actually, if you strip out that part, then the rate of inflation on a core basis is a lot closer to the Bank of Canada's target of 2 percent. I'm sure the Bank of Canada knows this, but
the recent hike has more to do with communication; trying to be seen as competent and serious about inflation; and potentialy saving face.
Bank of Canada doesn't want to seem like it's doing nothing, esp with the recent hot GDP numbers. It looked stupid by not raising rates earlier and also assuring Canadians in Oct of 2020 that low rates would remain for several years back.
The recent unemployment report (slight increase) might now convince the Bank of Canada to pause, but that could change with if inflation comes in hotter than expected on June 27.
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