As Obama inches up in the polls...he falls behind in the electoral college count

[RTRD]

http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard

Up by nearly 3.5 points in the poll...the high water mark in a post-Palin world...but behind in the electoral college vote count for the first time.

This is going to be one BIZARRE election. I see trouble brewing....

 

[The Crunge]

I think there will be a lot more blue on that map once the polls are in from this week. It's hysterical when you look at the map as per Huffington and as per Gingrich.

 

[Dr69]

The state polls always lag the national polls. And these state polls are all over the map, I wouldn't trust them. One Michigan poll had them tied and another one released the same day has Obaman up by 13 points. North Carolina, Virginia and even Indiana, all red state are all in play. His national poll lead will filter down to the state level, it is only a matter of time.

 

[Dr69]

Some discussion on the state polls. According to Kos, Obama can pull it off, the way it stands today.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/26/22910/2659/245/610974

 

[RTRD]

I've actually worked this scneario...

Some discussion on the state polls. According to Kos, Obama can pull it off, the way it stands today.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/26/22910/2659/245/610974

"If New Hampshire flips Red, it would give us that dreaded 269-269 tie."

...more than a few times. It is NOT far fetched.

I PRAY it doesn't happen though..I'd rather see a McCain victory than a tie. I am not kidding when I say a tie could be the first shot fired in a race war....

 

[Don]

MLAM - I found this poll to be very good. I followed it in 2004 and it was pretty good then.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Not only is Obama leading but if you look at the states that are very close, McCain has more risk overall.

 

[twentynine]

Way better polling analysis by Nate Silver (the sports stats guy) at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

 

[newguy27]

No matter which who you are rooting for, i think we can all agree that we hope that the popular and electorial vote matches up in the end. Definitely hate the whining about popular vote versus electorial vote differences after the vote if they are split.

 

[fuji]

Having all the votes for one state go to the candidate who won that state by .01% is crazy.

In a case like Florida where there are 27 votes up for grabs that means that the winner, by 0.01%, gets 13 delegates more than if they'd been allocated proportionally.

That's a lot -- it equals the ENTIRE representation of Montana, North Dakota, Wyoming, and Idaho combined--just in the overage that swung on the votes of a few hundred people.

Worse.. imagine what would happen if California were won by 0.01% some day. That would mean a difference of 27 votes versus a proportional allocation.

There's nothing wrong with having an electoral college, and nothing wrong really with giving the small states slightly larger representation per voter, but it's crazy that it isn't at least proportional within each state.

 

[Aardvark154]

There's nothing wrong with having an electoral college, and nothing wrong really with giving the small states slightly larger representation per voter, but it's crazy that it isn't at least proportional within each state.

One solution is to have two electoral votes for the state at large and the rest of the electoral votes by congressional district. There are two states which presently do this, I believe Maine and Nebraska.