Apple revenue, iPhone sales disappoint; shares dive

b4u

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(Reuters) - Apple Inc missed Wall Street's revenue forecast for the third straight quarter as iPhone sales came in below expectations, fueling investors' worries that its dominance of the mobile industry was slipping.

Shares of the world's largest tech company fell 10 percent to $463 after-hours, wiping out some $50 billion of its market value from its $514 close.

On Wednesday, Apple said it shipped a record 47.8 million iPhones in the December quarter, up 29 percent from the year-ago period but below the 50 million shipments that analysts on average had expected.

"It's going to call into question Apple's dominance in the space. It's still one of the strong players, the others being Samsung and Google. It's still a two-horse race, but Android continues to grow rapidly," said Sterne Agee analyst Shaw Wu.

"If you step back a bit, it's clear they shipped a lot of phones. But the problem is the high expectations that investors have. Apple's conservative guidance highlights the concerns over production cuts coming out of Asia recently."

Apple projected revenue of $41 billion to $43 billion in the current, second fiscal quarter, lagging the average Wall Street forecast of more than $45 billion.

Fiscal first quarter revenue rose 18 percent to $54.5 billion, below the average analyst estimate of $54.73 billion, though earnings per share of $13.81 beat the Street forecast of $13.47, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Apple also undershot revenue targets in the previous two quarters, and these results will prompt more questions on what Apple has in its product pipeline, and what it can do to attract new sales and maintain its growth trajectory, analysts said.

Net income of $13.07 billion was virtually flat with $13.06 billion a year earlier.


CHINA IS BRIGHT SPOT

Investors' expectations heading into the results had already been subdued by news of possible production cutbacks by some component suppliers in Asia, triggering fears that demand for the iPhone, which accounts for half of Apple's revenue, and the iPad could be slowing.

Apple shares are down nearly 30 percent from a record high in September, in part on worries that its days of hyper growth are over and its mobile devices are no longer as popular.

Intense competition from Samsung's cheaper phones - powered by Google's Android software - and signs that the premium smartphone market may be close to saturation in developed markets have also caused a lot of investor anxiety.

Meanwhile, sales of the iPad came in at 22.9 million in the fiscal first quarter, roughly in line with forecasts.

On the brighter side, Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer told Reuters that iPhone sales more than doubled in greater China - a region that Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook has vowed to focus on as its next big growth driver.

The company will begin detailing results from that country.

"These results were OK, but they definitely raised a few questions," said Shannon Cross, analyst with Cross Research. "Gross margin trajectory looks fine so that's a positive and cash continues to grow. But I think investors are going to want to know what Apple plans to do with growing cash balance."

"And other questions are going to be around innovation and where the next products are coming from and what does Tim Cook see in the next 12 to 18 months."


Yikes! even I didn't expect them to fall short on the Christmas quarter..... with all those new releases timed for Christmas, more countries and carriers than ever before,it should have been Apples quarter to really shine.

Macs fell 21% from year ago selling only 4.1 million. I guess all those iPads are cannibalizing Apples PC market.
 

IM469

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Jul 5, 2012
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I told you I'd get the last laugh trollbitch OTB. This is just the beginning of the fall. :D
Obviously you haven't been reading his posts - this just proves that Apple is destroying the competition form the inside out faster than expected.

Who was the iSheep who was advocating that all your money should be thrown into Apple stock as it raced ever upward when the first ration thoughts of Apple trouble surfaced ? If he put his money where his mouth was - it must be a painful - as traumatic as finding out there is no Santa Clause & loosing half your investment in 5 months. Ouch ! :frusty:
 

Max Webster

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Did they break down the sales of the ipads? Just curious if the rumours were true that the ipad mini was cannibalizing sales of the regular ipad.
 

djk

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the hobby needs more capitalism
So Apple sells more iPhones than ever before (what happened to those stories about reduced iPhone demand? - HA!), sells more iPads than ever before, posts quarterly revenue of $54.5 billion and net quarterly profit of $13.1 billion and has had the largest corporate earnings year in human history and that's a disappointment?

Ooooookay.
 

IM469

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So Apple sells .....quarterly profit of $13.1 billion and has had the largest corporate earnings year in human history and that's a disappointment?

Ooooookay.
Sure ... So run out and buy some more shares !!!!! Weren't you the one advocating buying shares when they were about ~ $800 ?

Yes they sold more but their profits are basically unchanged which is not a good trend. Plus all there figures were before the reported cancelling ~50% supplier orders which indicate while there are new orders - they are slowing down substantially from earlier expectations..
 

WoodPeckr

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ijs.....

The latest quotes today:
AAPL 455.31 -58.70 -11.42%
Where's smug bottie & his crickets????

Time to jump in & BUY all the AAPL at such a GREAT 'buying opportunity' so you(s) can all more than double your money before it hits $1,000....:eyebrows:
 

djk

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the hobby needs more capitalism
Sure ... So run out and buy some more shares !!!!!
Accurately stating their quarterly earnings is an endorsement to buy the stock? Two questions, the first one using your logic, do you have a short position on Apple? Second, do you believe you can beat the market?

Weren`t you the one advocating buying shares when they were about ~ $800 ?
From what I recall, nope. I even googled "djk + https://terb.cc + apple stock" and "djk + https://terb.cc + buy apple". Only got these discussions on Apple stock where I commented.

https://terb.cc/vbulletin/archive/index.php/t-380721.html
https://terb.cc/vbulletin/archive/index.php/t-396862.html

Never did offer a buy recommendation.

Yes they sold more but their profits are basically unchanged which is not a good trend.
Google`s P/E is higher than Apple`s (23.10 vs 10.31). Yet Apple reports more profit than Google. $13.1B vs $2.89B. Shit so cray.

Plus all there figures were before the reported cancelling ~50% supplier orders which indicate while there are new orders - they are slowing down substantially from earlier expectations..
There`s some commentary which refutes this. There was no disclosure of this on Apple`s conference call. Cancellations like this are material facts and Apple is required to disclose this information to investors. I suspect we`ll see another all time high number of iPhone sales next quarter and new excuses from those who loathe Apple.
 

Max Webster

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onthebottom is rather quiet. He hasn't done something drastic because of the apple fall I hope. Possibly bought in a $700 with expectations of $1000.00 by now.
 

b4u

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Jul 23, 2010
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So Apple sells more iPhones than ever before (what happened to those stories about reduced iPhone demand? - HA!), sells more iPads than ever before, posts quarterly revenue of $54.5 billion and net quarterly profit of $13.1 billion and has had the largest corporate earnings year in human history and that's a disappointment?

Ooooookay.
Could it be anything to do with the fact that fewer than 50% of new iphone sales reported by Verizon etc. were iphone 5 and the majority were the free iphone 4 on contract? or maybe that after going into over 100 new markets and numerous new carriers sales were not much more than what they were....afterall they did miss everyones estimates. Russia sold 20,000 iPhone 5 in it's first 3 days of sale. China has been strong but underwhelming.

with a totally refreshed lineup set for the Christmas rush including the new iPad mini Apple failed to show the huge blockbuster quarter like they had 1 year ago and with all the new Android and new BB set to hit the market Apple have already downplayed future quarters.

Apple have already said there will be no cheap iphone produced and no larger screens than what they already have it, doesn't look great for future growth.

Net income of $13.07 billion was virtually flat with $13.06 billion a year earlier.
Apple shares slide by most in over four years on disappointing iPhone sales

(Reuters) - Apple Inc's shares fell by as much as 12 percent on Thursday, staging their biggest percentage drop in over four years and slicing more than $50 billion from the company's market value, as disappointing holiday-period iPhone sales reinforced fears it is losing its dominance in smartphones.

Eighteen brokerages, including Barclays Capital, Mizuho Securities USA, Credit Suisse, and Raymond James cut their price targets on the stock of the world's biggest publicly traded company by an average $132 to $612.

Apple's shares slid to $450.66 at the open on the Nasdaq, before recouping some of their losses.

The stock hit a peak close of $702.10 on September 19, valuing the company at $658 billion. Since then, it has lost about $225 billion, or 35 percent, of its in market value -- or about the entire worth of Chevron Corp, the second biggest U.S. oil company.

Jefferies & Co cut its rating on Apple's stock to "hold" from "buy" and slashed its share price target by $300 to $500.

Jefferies analyst Peter Misek, who has previously raised red flags about Apple cutting orders to suppliers, said the iPhone slowdown was "real and material" and here to stay.

"We think Apple is losing the screen-size wars," Misek said, noting that demand was moving away from the iPhone's 3.5-inch and 4-inch screens to screens of 5 inches offered by rivals such as Samsung Electronics Co Ltd, HTC Corp and Nokia Oyj.


Samsung, which is at the same time Apple's chief rival and biggest component supplier, overtook Apple as the biggest seller of smartphones in the third quarter, selling close to 500 handsets a minute.

Apple said it shipped a record 47.8 million iPhones in the December quarter, but this was well below the average analyst forecast of 50 million units.

The company's margins were also hit, sliding to 38.6 percent from 44.7 percent a year earlier, partly because its iPad is cannibalizing its high-margin Macintosh computers.

Expectations heading into the results had been subdued by news of possible production cutbacks, putting pressure on Chief Executive Tim Cook to keep up the company's momentum.

NEW PRODUCTS NEEDED

Analysts said Apple's growth would hinge on new products, but added that a new launch wasn't on the horizon.

"To re-accelerate growth, Apple likely needs to launch new products, yet few seem likely before June," Nomura's Stuart Jeffrey said.

The company has been long rumored to be working on a television but has so far deflected questions on its existence. Apple hasn't launched a new line of products in almost three years, apart from a smaller version of the iPad.

Some analysts questioned the company's strategy of betting its fortunes on one phone, while others said a cheaper iPhone could arrest losses of market share.

"Apple's modus operandi to date has been to cream the high-end off each market, but as the company's grown it may now need to target more of the mainstream," Evercore Partners analysts said.

Up to Wednesday, 24 analysts had lowered their price targets since October when Apple reported its fourth-quarter results, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Apple shares were down 10.3 percent at $460.66 in late morning trading.

The disappointing results also hit shares of some of Apple's suppliers. Cirrus Logic Inc, which gets nearly 80 percent of its revenue from Apple, fell 10 percent while shares of Skyworks Solutions Inc, which depends on Apple for about a quarter of its revenue, slipped 5 percent.

Cirrus makes audio-related chips while Skyworks provides power amplifiers for Apple products.

Apple is the lowest ranked stock among the marquee technology firms in the United States based on the change in analyst sentiment, or Analysts Revision Model (ARM), according to StarMine.

Apple's global ARM score of 10 is well below Google Inc's 34 and Microsoft Corp's 19 out of a possible 100. Nokia and Samsung have scores of 82 and 89, respectively.


Research in Motion Ltd has a perfect score of 100, according to the model, which measures analysts' revision of key indicators such as earnings and revenue estimates and changes to their ratings.
 

Flapjack

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Aug 24, 2012
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My IPhone 3 stills works perfectly, and my Gics are still worth more than last year. Apple what?
 

IM469

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My IPhone 3 stills works perfectly, and my Gics are still worth more than last year. Apple what?
My iPhone 3gs still works well - the battery is dead and off course cannot be exchanged but it doesn't mater as it is now my music source in the car. Of course this does little to help generate new revenue for Apple which investors are looking for in an investment.
 

anon1

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I remember a thread here about a year ago where someone said a friend sold their house in the GTA for $1 mil and put it all into AAPL when it was at $600.
 

onthebottom

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So Apple sells more iPhones than ever before (what happened to those stories about reduced iPhone demand? - HA!), sells more iPads than ever before, posts quarterly revenue of $54.5 billion and net quarterly profit of $13.1 billion and has had the largest corporate earnings year in human history and that's a disappointment?

Ooooookay.
And you can buy all of that for a PE of 10, less than half of Google.

OTB
 

WoodPeckr

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BUY bottie BUY!!!

And you can buy all of that for a PE of 10, less than half of Google.

OTB
Yeah this is probably just a 'correction' even through AAPL has lost 40% of it's value since it's peak of being >$700 and is NO LONGER the biggest company around.....EXXON has reclaimmed that crown....:fear:

That said, a savvy fuzzy numbers guru like you bottie will see this a great 'buying opportunity' and will no doubt will jump on in and BUY all the AAPL stock you can and ride it up to $1000....:eyebrows:

After all the Apple bubble hasn't burst ....it's just a pimple that popped!.....:wink:
 

b4u

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And you can buy all of that for a PE of 10, less than half of Google.

OTB
Fundamentals And Technicals Point To $340 Apple Stock Price

Both technical analysis and fundamental analysis support a potential target of $340 for Apple stock.

First the technicals; Apple stock has traced a head and shoulders pattern as the chart shows. In traditional technical analysis this is a well-known reversal pattern. An important part of this pattern is the neckline that joins the two shoulders and shown on the chart.

The pattern not only shows the reversal but also provides for an ultimate downside target. The downside target is projected at a distance below the neckline equal to the distance between the neckline and the top of the head. This pattern sets $340 as Apple’s target.



Now the fundamental. You have probably heard analysts gush about how Apple is cheap on a P/E basis. This is a naive view. The fact is that nobody knows with certainty what normalized Apple earnings over the next five years will be. If Apple does not innovate, earnings will definitely drop.

A less discussed but more important problem for Apple is its heavy dependence on subsidies from phone carriers. When a consumer buys an iPhone 5 from a carrier for $199 the carrier may be paying Apple over $600 and subsidizing the consumer.

Recently there have been negative musings both from AT&T and Verizon about the high level of subsidies for iPhones. The subsidies on Google Android based phones and Microsoft Windows phones are lower.

Back on October 17, 2012, when Apple stock was trading at $650, I wrote that the stock could easily drop by $200; here was the fundamental rationale:

According to my model, if subsidies were completely eliminated, Apple will lose about 40% of its sales of iPhones. The effect will be a direct drop of about 28% in Apple earnings. Such a scenario may turn into a vicious circle. During Apple’s ascent, Apple’s other products have benefited from the halo effect of iPhones. In a descent, the halo effect will be in force but in reverse. In such a scenario, as a vicious circle takes hold, Apple earnings may drop to around $30 per share. Considering that Apple has been dependent on hit after hit and for this reason even during its ascent, Apple has been able to garner a forward P/E of only about 12, in a descent Apple forward P/E may fall as low as 6. Not only Apple’s earnings will drop, its stock price will drop under $200 in such a scenario supported mostly by the cash that Apple holds. Arguments such as Apple is fundamentally cheap close to its cash value will not hold water. Just take a look at forward P/E of Hewlett-Packard; it is about 4 and many astute investors still do not consider the stock cheap.

Normalized earnings of Apple falling to $30 per share are not out of the question. At a P/E of 7 ex cash, it computes the stock value at $210. Add $137 in cash and the result is $347.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatsp...nd-technicals-point-to-340-apple-stock-price/
 

onthebottom

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Yet Apple has a pretty good track record of innovating... A PE of 7 is ridiculous, but then I'm not a professional investor, nor do I think a PE of 10 makes any sense either....
 
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