Android's future?

[goodguy1977]

Happy new year everyone!

I had a thought and wanted the communities opinion. And just to give you a little context i'm looking at it from a financial perspective.

So first off, let's be honest. Android is a rip off of the Iphone, i'm not saying Android is horrible but I will call a spade a spade and it's a copy of the Iphone.

It has been very successful in taking market share from Iphone, BB and Nokia, however the majority of the share is from the "lower revenue generating" part of the mobile market.

Android has been positioned by Google as a product used to protect it's golden goose the search business.

Samsung has done very well and is pretty much recognized as the Android maker of choice, they have profited the most from Android.

However Google's purchase of Motorola Mobility has shown a shift in their strategy, thus it looks like they are moving towards the closed ecosystem and want to control the hardware as well as the software. (X-phone development rumours)

So here's my question (Sorry it took so long) with Android being open could that create a big problem for Android users as Samsung will develop their own version, HTC... etc... etc.

Would that not create a completely confusing environment in the Android market? From a developers perspective would that frustrate you from developing for different versions of Android?


Thanks for any input and happy new year everyone


Goodguy

 

[Intrinsic]

You have to be honest in that Apple has also been a very powerful c opier of things as well. The Magsafe plug was actually first done on a kettle somewhere in Asia. There are tons more things, I'd have to find that article/blog and post it here. Apple is no innovator, they just copy and repackage very well indeed.

 

[goodguy1977]

You have to be honest in that Apple has also been a very powerful c opier of things as well. The Magsafe plug was actually first done on a kettle somewhere in Asia. There are tons more things, I'd have to find that article/blog and post it here. Apple is no innovator, they just copy and repackage very well indeed.

Hi there,

Thanks for the reply, my point isn't the whole apple vs. android, i definately agree Apple steals, but my point was more on Android's future and if Samsung splits from Google and develops their own OS what that does to the Android market?

Happy new year

Goodguy

 

[Carvher]

It doesn't matter who copies who. Your original question is about the future of android phones.
I think the best people to answer that would be the younger generation. My son who is 20 had an Apple and now has a Samsung. I asked him the same question and his response was that his friends are going toward the android phones. His opinion is that it is far superior in so many ways. He told me that if somebody was trying to pick between them, that he could talk them into buying the androids within 20 minutes. It's this age group that drives that market. You may want to consider selling your Apple stock.

 

[basketcase]

Samsung profits on hardware, lcd screens and phone sales. Google is mostly software. Yes android is open source but I believe that someone would have to make significant changes before profiting from it.

There is also a lot more to the android market than you suggest. Google has software and has commissioned manufacturers to build phones specifically on their specs (the nexus line). Google had HTC make the 1st, Samsung the 2nd and 3rd, and LG the latest. At the same time, all of the manufactures were still selling their own hardware which did contain some modifications to plain android. Hardware wise, the nexus phones were essentially the same hardware as the manufacturers own phones.

If google were to get motorolla back to being high quality builds, they could go their own way and leave the other manufacturers out in the cold but I am sure google makes far more from licensing their software platform than they would be able to make from the potential share of the phone market.

As for others taking and modifying android to use for themselves, google has filed tons of patent infringements against apple for stealing their ideas as well so I doubt they'd get far.

 

[goodguy1977]

Hi there,

Thanks for the contributions so far. Just to clarify I am not long or short Apple stock. But I would like to address a couple of the points:

I've actually researched this arguement from a different perspective. I found that the higher end market makes up of Iphone, I get what your son says but realistically i'm looking at it from Androids future and not necessarily Samsungs or LG. If you ask your son if Android wasn't on his Samsung phone I think his answer would be different. Again i'm not long or short Apple so I think you might be looking at it from a position that I am pro Apple, I am not. (If you checked my history of posts you will see i have sold and purchased it previously but am neutral right now)

It's an interesting response from basketcase, I get the apps revenue but from checking Google's financial statements they are definately not a driver of the company. As for licensing, I've noticed a chilling of the relationship between Google and Samsung. (Nexus now being made by LG)
From their last earnings miss I definately think they are trying to make their own hardware through Motorola, eventually if they pulled their version of Android to exclusively Motorola the market would obviously be smaller.

On the last point i'm not aware of patents that Apple has infringed on based on Apple, it might be on a Motorola general use patent but nothing specifically to Android. From what I understand Android is completely open, Samsung could develop it's own version based on ) the original Kernal and call it something else. (Robot?? LOL)

But wouldn't this cause anarchy in the Android market?

And just for the record this isn't an Apple vs. Android rant, I am neither long/short Apple or Google stock.

Thanks for the responses

Happy new year

Goodguy

 

[onthebottom]

The biggest threat to google isn't from Apple or handset makers it's from a move to mobile web vs PC - the ad rates are different (lower) which is why they keep missing / disappointing on revenue... Google has a lions share of ad revenue but that revenue is moving to a lower cost platform....

It wouldn't surprise me to see Amazon try and take control of user experience (and ad revenue) when they release a phone and more tablets.... They have the closest thing to Apple's ecosystem (which is very sticky) with books, movies, music and everyone's credit cards.... and could give Google (and it's OEMs) a run for their money on the lower end of the market..... but probably only in the US.

OTB

 

[danibbler]

I dont think Samsungs BADA or any OS they are going to come up with is going to have any effect on Android in the next 5 years.
the Gen pop will pick an os and the businesses will pick an os, they might be the same but that is unlikely

Bada isn't even around in any real capacity yet.

Yep, I very much doubt that Samsung is going to have any sort of OS out on its own. More than likely it will stick with being a hardware crib for Android or Windows Phone.

 

[IM469]

.... but my point was more on Android's future and if Samsung splits from Google and develops their own OS what that does to the Android market?

You must think of smartphone Android vs Apple in the same context as computer Windows vs Apple. The reason that Windows completely squashed Apple many years ago was the fact that every computer manufacturer could build Windows O/S computers but the only Apple could build Apple O/S computers.

Even as Samsung out sell Apple devices, they will never then put themselves in the same box as Apple, They might tweak minor features but the vast Android software base will always run on any Android device (at least in theory).

 

[goodguy1977]

The biggest threat to google isn't from Apple or handset makers it's from a move to mobile web vs PC - the ad rates are different (lower) which is why they keep missing / disappointing on revenue... Google has a lions share of ad revenue but that revenue is moving to a lower cost platform....

It wouldn't surprise me to see Amazon try and take control of user experience (and ad revenue) when they release a phone and more tablets.... They have the closest thing to Apple's ecosystem (which is very sticky) with books, movies, music and everyone's credit cards.... and could give Google (and it's OEMs) a run for their money on the lower end of the market..... but probably only in the US.

OTB

Very interesting.... thanks!

Goodguy

 

[goodguy1977]

You must think of smartphone Android vs Apple in the same context as computer Windows vs Apple. The reason that Windows completely squashed Apple many years ago was the fact that every computer manufacturer could build Windows O/S computers but the only Apple could build Apple O/S computers.

Even as Samsung out sell Apple devices, they will never then put themselves in the same box as Apple, They might tweak minor features but the vast Android software base will always run on any Android device (at least in theory).

Hello there,

Well yes and no. It's a little different now with the mobile platform as the user has more variables to worry about versus the closed system of the old PC market. There are similarities but Google doesn't make much on Android and Windows was a big money maker for MSFT.

To take it to a PC context, is Android going to morph into Linux??? If it is that won't be good from a business perspective, great for hard core techies but it wouldn't be consumer friendly.

It would also be a disaster for Google to build their own ecosystem if Android morphs, thus they may have to bring it in house. Thus goodbye Samsung relationship.

Goodguy

 

[basketcase]

Android IS linux. Like linux, it's just as easy to use as apple/windows but gives you more options if you care to use them.

The difference between linux based Android and PC linux is that Android has the backing of the massive google machine (the latest nexus phones were subsidized by google).


As for ecosystems, Androis is google's ecosystem and Samsung has no problem selling to their competition, they work with apple too.

 

[benstt]

There are similarities but Google doesn't make much on Android and Windows was a big money maker for MSFT.

Remember the early days of Windows - MS didn't make as much on Windows as they fought to take the market. They didn't crack down too much on piracy, etc until later. They wanted Windows to be ubiquitous. It has been theorized that it would have been worthwhile to sell Windows at a loss in the early days, in order to drive out the early competitors, in order to be able to sell Windows and Office later to the masses.

If Google took the market over, they will take a bit more profit off of licensing Android. Because they could in that case.



Windows and Office became a big cash cow later, when it was the default option, they could dictate terms to OEM's, etc.

 

[goodguy1977]

Remember the early days of Windows - MS didn't make as much on Windows as they fought to take the market. They didn't crack down too much on piracy, etc until later. They wanted Windows to be ubiquitous. It has been theorized that it would have been worthwhile to sell Windows at a loss in the early days, in order to drive out the early competitors, in order to be able to sell Windows and Office later to the masses.

If Google took the market over, they will take a bit more profit off of licensing Android. Because they could in that case.



Windows and Office became a big cash cow later, when it was the default option, they could dictate terms to OEM's, etc.

I think its a different market and time, mainly cause of the net.


Goodguy

 

[bishop]

Op saw a point that most people miss in most Android vs Apple debates, Android is a c*ck block move against iOS to protect google search, in light of that objective; Android is a great success. IMO Google has not yet shown favortism towards motorolla yet, it seems to me they went out of their way to give the exclusive "Nexus" badges to any company but Motorolla, though in the future certainly Motorolla will get it's shot at making a "Nexus" device.

Google's current strategy is a decent one; exercise control over hardware and software through granting of the "Nexus" branding, the key merit of Nexus devices is that it is a straight plain vanilla version of the latest Android. Developers can just build their apps for plain vanilla Android and know there is at the very least a huge number of Nexus devices out there that they can reach, they can then tailor aspects of their app for specific devices later on.

Apple products have a fit and finish that is above other products, for me I am comfortable with an Android device so long as the price discount is atleast 25% WRT similar Apple products, so far it seems that Android devices carry close to a 50% discount so Android is a no brainer to me.

Do not discount Windows 8 and Intel, Windows 8 will eventually command a large mobile market share with the help of Intel's new lower powered x86 CPUs. Blackberry still has a shot at glory with BB10.

 

[Intrinsic]

It doesn't matter who copies who. Your original question is about the future of android phones.
I think the best people to answer that would be the younger generation. My son who is 20 had an Apple and now has a Samsung. I asked him the same question and his response was that his friends are going toward the android phones. His opinion is that it is far superior in so many ways. He told me that if somebody was trying to pick between them, that he could talk them into buying the androids within 20 minutes. It's this age group that drives that market. You may want to consider selling your Apple stock.

^^^^^^^ THIS is the trend I'm noticing as well. More and more Androids and not as many iPhones. In fact, where I work, 3 women -guessing their ages here, roughly -22, 27, 38, are all on Androids. Samsung Note II, Galaxy S3 AND S3, respectively. .......and those are WOMEN, forget about the guys, a good chunk of them all have Androids.

 

[IM469]

Apple products have a fit and finish that is above other products, .....

That is the perception that Apple puts out to justify their prices but it hasn't been my experience. They put out a good quality product but to suggest the price paid - particularly for their accessories - reflects an equal measure of better quality is a tad exaggerated.

Apple & Samsung are totally different types of companies. Apple is dedicated to a developing a unique platform to sell hardware & content - all controlled by them. Samsung is first and foremost a hardware manufacturer that uses Android and Windows 8 software to sell more hardware. I have no doubt that if they had access to iOS, they would probably sell Apple compatible handsets as well.

 

[onthebottom]

Op saw a point that most people miss in most Android vs Apple debates, Android is a c*ck block move against iOS to protect google search, in light of that objective; Android is a great success. .....

This, all their revenue (well, nearly all) is ads, they make more from iOS than from Android but they can't leave themselves dependent on Apple....

OTB

 

[WoodPeckr]

This, all their revenue (well, nearly all) is ads, they make more from iOS than from Android but they can't leave themselves dependent on Apple....

LOL!!!
They are positioned very well to continue using Apple from the way their stock is doing ....compared to Apple stock!

BTW how's the AAPL target of $1,000 working out for ya?.....

 

[goodguy1977]

LOL!!!
They are positioned very well to continue using Apple from the way their stock is doing ....compared to Apple stock!

BTW how's the AAPL target of $1,000 working out for ya?.....

Seriously, do you have anything valuable to contribute?

Goodguy