Trump working on deal to buy potash from Belarus for lower price than Canada

kherg007

Well-known member
May 3, 2014
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That's not inability to assess a situation.
He just believes that announcing things is more important than them happening.
People remember the headlines, not the follow through.
Wait - you mean my Trump phone, my doge cheque, my tariff rebate, my degree from Trump uni, my cheaper and better health care plan, my solved Ukraine v Russia war, my cheap gas, the open strait of Hormuz, the great victory over Iran, and so forth...aren't coming?
 

kherg007

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Have faith my son and just keep sending money
Whew. Good idea. I'll have the dough because I invested in Trump coin. I know someday it is bound to go back up to match what I paid for it.
 

jeff2

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Over a thousand comments at the Globe and Mail on this.
Nutrien stock down today. Strait of Hormuz ongoing situation is good for Nitrogen prices but not really Potash prices.
 

Ceiling Cat

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The majority of farmland in the USA is in the middle of the country. Canada pre-Trump was the biggest supplier of potash to America, Russia was second. Trump may have negotiated a low price for potash landed on the east coast, but the cost of transporting it to the middle states may bring the price up to the same cost or more as buying Canadian potash. There is a reason why Canada was in the past the preferred supplier of potash. Reasonable price, reliability of supply and quality. Potash from Belarus will not help the American farmer this year. The potash shortage in America will only last as long as the orange cancerous pustule is around.

 

SchlongConery

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The majority of farmland in the USA is in the middle of the country. Canada pre-Trump was the biggest supplier of potash to America, Russia was second. Trump may have negotiated a low price for potash landed on the east coast, but the cost of transporting it to the middle states may bring the price up to the same cost or more as buying Canadian potash. There is a reason why Canada was in the past the preferred supplier of potash. Reasonable price, reliability of supply and quality. Potash from Belarus will not help the American farmer this year. The potash shortage in America will only last as long as the orange cancerous pustule is around.


You are correct CC.

Belarus is landlocked and has no seaport. And no allies access to the sea except through Russia. Lithuania already sanctions Belarus over their active facilitations of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. So they could load small ships on the river in a few cities or load railway wagons to ship through Russia. But that is less efficient to ship. And as you say, that only lands the ships on the east coast. Unless they are Seaway-Max sized and can transit the Great Lakes to Duluth or South Bend Indiana. But who knows... maybe there will be a Lock transit fee assessed on Belarussian ships? And THEN the potash has be be unloaded from the ship, silo'd, then loaded onto trains to trains to the Central United States. All of that costs money. Especially the loading and unloading


All of which doesn't even consider that Trump is likely getting paid off or one of his kids is going to own the brokerage or some company involved.
 
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glamphotographer

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Nov 5, 2011
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Canada
Remember, Trump promised lower food prices on day 1. We all know this won't happen as Trump signs his deals in pencil. But MAGA will believe it's true.
 

thepeak

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I mean, how many agreements has he said he's made, only for us to find out there wasn't any deal after all? So yeah, he makes up shit all the time, which is why I wait for a second source before believing anything the guy says.
Making shit up works well with his base, because they just take him at his word. But I'm pretty sure the centrists don't buy it anymore, and even other Republicans are calling out the BS now.
yeah true, it's just crazy to me that they just came out and denied the deal almost immediately, it's pretty damn embarrassing
 

rhuarc29

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Apr 15, 2009
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yeah true, it's just crazy to me that they just came out and denied the deal almost immediately, it's pretty damn embarrassing
Yeah, the president really is shameless, at least in certain regards. He doesn't feel shame for lying, or cheating, or hurting people. This was true even before he became president, judging by his business dealings.
The only thing he gets embarrassed by seems to be the impression of his power and popularity. When his rally attendance is down, he feels it. When he's made to look like a weakling on the world stage, he feels it.
 

SchlongConery

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Aside from Belarussia denying the Lying Don's lie about having a deal in place, 'John Steen of the Bradshaw Research Initiative in Mineral and Mining says Lithuanian sanctions on Belarus will make exporting potash to the U.S. more expensive.'


Some of the comments, FWIW...

'Logistics 101: 1) Load of potash in Saskatchewan gets loaded on a train, goes anywhere in North America. 2) Load of potash in Belarus goes on loaded on a train, local criminals and politicians take a cut; goes to Russia and gets loaded on a ship, local criminals and politicians take a cut. Gets shipped across the Atlantic, gets transferred on a train and goes anywhere in North America. Could someone explain how Belarussian Potash would be cheaper?'

'Belarus has already publicly stated that they don't have it, even if they wanted to. The USA doesn't buy it from Canada out of goodwill, they buy it because it's the cheapest and easiest source for them. In other words, Americans buy potash from Canada purely for their own benefit and interests. If they could get it cheaper somewhere else, they would have already been doing so.'

'The USA has potash reserves, but ours are higher in quality, cheaper, processed, more supply and available.'
 
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SchlongConery

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So much for El Magnifico,Making America Great Again... 🤷‍♂️

Quick AI inquiry result in the following. (TLDR... the USA has MASSIVE potash reserves and could develop their own DOMESTIC, Made in 'Murica potash industry and put tens of thousands, if not more of miners to work. But instead is using his vindictiveness towards Canada as a foil to make some (likely) corrupt deal with the Russian puppet state Belarus to source slave labour blood-potash from the other side of the Atlantic.)


AI Overview

Yes, the United States has domestic potash reserves (estimated in the billions of tonnes) and a few minor active or legacy production sites, but it relies heavily on Canada because developing new domestic mines is extremely costly and time-consuming. [1, 2]

U.S. Potash Reserves vs. Domestic Production
    • Reserves: The U.S. holds significant underground potash deposits, notably in states like New Mexico, Utah, Michigan, North Dakota, and Montana. [1, 2]
    • Current Reliance: The U.S. imports roughly 80% to 90% of the potash its farmers need, with about 85% of those imports coming right next door from Saskatchewan, Canada. [1, 2]

Why the U.S. Doesn't Just Use Its Own Reserves
    • Development Costs: Opening new domestic production from scratch requires massive capital investment. Many U.S. deposits (such as those in North Dakota or Montana) are buried deep underground—often requiring mine shafts over a mile deep. [1]
    • Time Constraints: Building deep-shaft mines, processing facilities, and the necessary heavy rail or trucking infrastructure takes many years, meaning it cannot solve short- or medium-term agricultural needs. [1]
    • Logistical Convenience: Saskatchewan's deposits are among the largest and richest in the world. Transporting Canadian potash across the border via established rail and truck routes is far cheaper and more efficient than building brand-new domestic mega-mines. [1, 2]
(Note: While political discussions—such as recent U.S. overtures toward alternative suppliers like Belarus—sometimes explore diversification for geopolitical leverage, the sheer logistical and financial hurdle of replacing proximate Canadian supply remains immense.) [1]
 
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SchlongConery

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I just did some math that completely blows Trump's deal out of the mind of any thinking person.


Cost to transport potash by sea is 5 cents per tonne per km. The great circle distance from either Belarus or Kalningrad to NYC is approximately 7,000km. But it is longer than that in practice.

7,000 km @ 5 cents per tonne is US$350.

This is for the ocean shipping only. Not any rail transport to the port, not any loading or translating. NOT including the bribes and fees paid to corrupt Russian and American White House criminals.

Today's spot price on Saskatchewan Potash is US$387.00. (higher than normal due to Trump's and Putin's wars)

So Belarussian potash at $37 per tonne would still cost the same as Canadian potash. But would be in the Port of New York

According to Google AI, the cost to transport a ton of potash from Port of New York to Nebraska is between $35 and $65 per ton. Depending on or not including fuel surcharges. So let's call it US$50 per tonne. AI also noted that this is an "atypical" rail route and would involve many changes of rail lines and railway companies. none of which fees are included in that staring per mile rate.

(Canadian potash supply routes have direct, dedicated railway lines to the specific hubs the potash is locally distributed where it is delivered to farmers. )

Then you add on the cost to unload, store and re-load the materials at all the rail, ship, rail, rail, etc and Trump's 'deal' is a money losing, bankruptcy inducing deal on its face. Trump couldn't have even done a back of the napkin calculation before announcing his embarrassing lie.

What a fucking lying moron. As are the gullible mooks who believe and repeat what he says. 😂
 

Valcazar

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Wait - you mean my Trump phone, my doge cheque, my tariff rebate, my degree from Trump uni, my cheaper and better health care plan, my solved Ukraine v Russia war, my cheap gas, the open strait of Hormuz, the great victory over Iran, and so forth...aren't coming?
 
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BBL_inspector

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Wait - you mean my Trump phone, my doge cheque, my tariff rebate, my degree from Trump uni, my cheaper and better health care plan, my solved Ukraine v Russia war, my cheap gas, the open strait of Hormuz, the great victory over Iran, and so forth...aren't coming?
No don't be silly, of course they're coming you just have to wait another 2 more years and remember to vote Trump again then you'll definitely get them. In fact why not throw in another $5000 dollars just for the heck of it
 

nottyboi

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May 14, 2008
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I just did some math that completely blows Trump's deal out of the mind of any thinking person.


Cost to transport potash by sea is 5 cents per tonne per km. The great circle distance from either Belarus or Kalningrad to NYC is approximately 7,000km. But it is longer than that in practice.

7,000 km @ 5 cents per tonne is US$350.

This is for the ocean shipping only. Not any rail transport to the port, not any loading or translating. NOT including the bribes and fees paid to corrupt Russian and American White House criminals.

Today's spot price on Saskatchewan Potash is US$387.00. (higher than normal due to Trump's and Putin's wars)

So Belarussian potash at $37 per tonne would still cost the same as Canadian potash. But would be in the Port of New York

According to Google AI, the cost to transport a ton of potash from Port of New York to Nebraska is between $35 and $65 per ton. Depending on or not including fuel surcharges. So let's call it US$50 per tonne. AI also noted that this is an "atypical" rail route and would involve many changes of rail lines and railway companies. none of which fees are included in that staring per mile rate.

(Canadian potash supply routes have direct, dedicated railway lines to the specific hubs the potash is locally distributed where it is delivered to farmers. )

Then you add on the cost to unload, store and re-load the materials at all the rail, ship, rail, rail, etc and Trump's 'deal' is a money losing, bankruptcy inducing deal on its face. Trump couldn't have even done a back of the napkin calculation before announcing his embarrassing lie.

What a fucking lying moron. As are the gullible mooks who believe and repeat what he says. 😂
He has already cancelled the deal and says he will stick with Canadian potash. lol As if its up to him Potash is sold to US fertilizer producers, not the US govt.
 
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