I just did some math that completely blows Trump's deal out of the mind of any thinking person.
Cost to transport potash by sea is 5 cents per tonne per km. The great circle distance from either Belarus or Kalningrad to NYC is approximately 7,000km. But it is longer than that in practice.
7,000 km @ 5 cents per tonne is US$350.
This is for the ocean shipping only. Not any rail transport to the port, not any loading or translating. NOT including the bribes and fees paid to corrupt Russian and American White House criminals.
Today's spot price on Saskatchewan Potash is US$387.00. (higher than normal due to Trump's and Putin's wars)
So Belarussian potash at $37 per tonne would still cost the same as Canadian potash. But would be in the Port of New York
According to Google AI, the cost to transport a ton of potash from Port of New York to Nebraska is between $35 and $65 per ton. Depending on or not including fuel surcharges. So let's call it US$50 per tonne. AI also noted that this is an "atypical" rail route and would involve many changes of rail lines and railway companies. none of which fees are included in that staring per mile rate.
(Canadian potash supply routes have direct, dedicated railway lines to the specific hubs the potash is locally distributed where it is delivered to farmers. )
Then you add on the cost to unload, store and re-load the materials at all the rail, ship, rail, rail, etc and Trump's 'deal' is a money losing, bankruptcy inducing deal on its face. Trump couldn't have even done a back of the napkin calculation before announcing his embarrassing lie.
What a fucking lying moron. As are the gullible mooks who believe and repeat what he says.