Iran has overplayed its hand

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princekwekua

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Sanctions on oil exports had been lifted. Revenue had increased 20% per barrel of oil. All Iran had to do was wait 60 days for the MOU to play out by allowing ALL vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, it decided to play tough. It will pay dearly.

1. The crucial port of Banda Abbas has been effectively cut off from the rest of the country by the US. No exports and imports going through
2. Weapons infrastructure being degraded relentlessly. Frequency of counter strikes by Iran has declined significantly in recent days
3. Gulf countries accelerating pipelines to bypass oil/gas shipments through the Strait. By 2030, the Strait will be a non factor in oil/gas shipments from Gulf countries
4. The US will start using Iranian funds to pay for damages to US and Gulf facilities. Up to $50 billion could be gone
5. Iranian ports blocked. No oil shipments

Iran has overplayed its hand. It will pay dearly short term and long term
 
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silentkisser

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princekwekua said:

Sanctions on oil exports had been lifted. Revenue had increased 20% per barrel of oil. All Iran had to do was wait 60 days for the MOU to play out by allowing ALL vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, it decided to play tough. It will pay dearly.

1. The crucial port of Banda Abbas has been effectively cut off from the rest of the country by the US. No exports and imports going through
2. Weapons infrastructure being degraded relentlessly. Frequency of counter strikes by Iran has declined significantly in recent days
3. Gulf countries accelerating pipelines to bypass oil/gas shipments through the Strait. By 2030, the Strait will be a non factor in oil/gas shipments from Gulf countries
4. The US will start using Iranian funds to pay for damages to US and Gulf facilities. Up to $50 billion could be gone
5. Iranian ports blocked. No oil shipments

Iran has overplayed its hand. It will pay dearly short term and long term
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Here's the thing: Trump is facing massive pressure now. He fucked this up from the start and we've seen global energy prices surge due to his stupidity and inability to think about the consequences of his actions. There will be mid-term elections in November, and the self-proclaimed Peace President is stuck in a quagmire of his own making. Iran just needs to hold on, and Trump will likely face more pressure to end this. Even if that means escalating, Iran could still win. Trump putting boots on the ground will hurt him politically.

And, his stupidity has allowed the Houthi's to escalate this by closing down the strait of Bab el-Mandeb, blocking more oil shipments. Will this lead to an expansion of the war? Will other countries now intervene? Will Trump and company do anything about this, because right now they look like they have the biggest, hardest cock in the world, but can't fuck anything except their hand....They honestly look impotent. Or, like a bully who keeps hitting that one kid that refuses to bow to them.

I will not claim that i'm going to be 100% right about all of this, but remember that Iran is not a normal country. They've HATED the US since the early 70s (before the revolution, starting with the overthrow of an elected president for the return of the Shah) and have a pretty hefty population and army. Sure, the US has probably weakened them significantly, but they sure as fuck don't want to send a platoon of marines into the streets of Tehran or even Kharg Island.
 
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Frankfooter

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silentkisser said:
Here's the thing: Trump is facing massive pressure now. He fucked this up from the start and we've seen global energy prices surge due to his stupidity and inability to think about the consequences of his actions. There will be mid-term elections in November, and the self-proclaimed Peace President is stuck in a quagmire of his own making. Iran just needs to hold on, and Trump will likely face more pressure to end this. Even if that means escalating, Iran could still win. Trump putting boots on the ground will hurt him politically.

And, his stupidity has allowed the Houthi's to escalate this by closing down the strait of Bab el-Mandeb, blocking more oil shipments. Will this lead to an expansion of the war? Will other countries now intervene? Will Trump and company do anything about this, because right now they look like they have the biggest, hardest cock in the world, but can't fuck anything except their hand....They honestly look impotent. Or, like a bully who keeps hitting that one kid that refuses to bow to them.

I will not claim that i'm going to be 100% right about all of this, but remember that Iran is not a normal country. They've HATED the US since the early 70s (before the revolution, starting with the overthrow of an elected president for the return of the Shah) and have a pretty hefty population and army. Sure, the US has probably weakened them significantly, but they sure as fuck don't want to send a platoon of marines into the streets of Tehran or even Kharg Island.
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Agreed, trump has two choices, escalate or admit he lost the war.
And he never, ever admits he loses.

Escalating means either troops or nukes.
That's it, that's the choice.
 
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Butler1000

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princekwekua said:

Sanctions on oil exports had been lifted. Revenue had increased 20% per barrel of oil. All Iran had to do was wait 60 days for the MOU to play out by allowing ALL vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, it decided to play tough. It will pay dearly.

1. The crucial port of Banda Abbas has been effectively cut off from the rest of the country by the US. No exports and imports going through
2. Weapons infrastructure being degraded relentlessly. Frequency of counter strikes by Iran has declined significantly in recent days
3. Gulf countries accelerating pipelines to bypass oil/gas shipments through the Strait. By 2030, the Strait will be a non factor in oil/gas shipments from Gulf countries
4. The US will start using Iranian funds to pay for damages to US and Gulf facilities. Up to $50 billion could be gone
5. Iranian ports blocked. No oil shipments

Iran has overplayed its hand. It will pay dearly short term and long term
Click to expand...
There was never going to be a deal. Israel and the USA would have broken it.
 
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Carpa

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princekwekua said:

Sanctions on oil exports had been lifted. Revenue had increased 20% per barrel of oil. All Iran had to do was wait 60 days for the MOU to play out by allowing ALL vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, it decided to play tough. It will pay dearly.

1. The crucial port of Banda Abbas has been effectively cut off from the rest of the country by the US. No exports and imports going through
2. Weapons infrastructure being degraded relentlessly. Frequency of counter strikes by Iran has declined significantly in recent days
3. Gulf countries accelerating pipelines to bypass oil/gas shipments through the Strait. By 2030, the Strait will be a non factor in oil/gas shipments from Gulf countries
4. The US will start using Iranian funds to pay for damages to US and Gulf facilities. Up to $50 billion could be gone
5. Iranian ports blocked. No oil shipments

Iran has overplayed its hand. It will pay dearly short term and long term
Click to expand...
They did, either because the republican guards have taken control and they're fanatical Islamists that are happy to die in the name of Allah. Or they overplayed their hand and thought they were going to get away with it.

The best thing is for the US is to increase the bombing and move faster with the military activity. They broke the cease fire several times by attacking commercial ships in the Strait. Its enough, they can't be trusted.
 
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Butler1000

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Carpa said:
They did, either because the republican guards have taken control and they're fanatical Islamists that are happy to die in the name of Allah. Or they overplayed their hand and thought they were going to get away with it.

The best thing is for the US is to increase the bombing and move faster with the military activity. They broke the cease fire several times by attacking commercial ships in the Strait. Its enough, they can't be trusted.
Click to expand...
You really can't see how dangerous this is can't you? If they take out the power and desalination plants in the Gulf states there is no more oil for years. And with the destruction of the bases and THAAD no longer a concern they can do it long before Iran loses its capabilities.

Now, Canada comes out ahead. 150 a barrel likely puts our dollar back in the 90 cent USD range. Making our imports cheaper and exports better.
 
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Carpa

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Butler1000 said:
You really can't see how dangerous this is can't you? If they take out the power and desalination plants in the Gulf states there is no more oil for years. And with the destruction of the bases and THAAD no longer a concern they can do it long before Iran loses its capabilities.

Now, Canada comes out ahead. 150 a barrel likely puts our dollar back in the 90 cent USD range. Making our imports cheaper and exports better.
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I find Iran and the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas much more dangerous and support the US this time. Iranians are suicidal religious maniacs that don't give a shit of themselves or their own citizens. Its a disgrace that people here support the Ayatollahs.
 
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Butler1000

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Carpa said:
I find Iran and the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas much more dangerous and support the US this time. Iranians are suicidal religious maniacs that don't give a shit of themselves or their own citizens. Its a disgrace that people here support the Ayatollahs.
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No one is "supporting" anything. What I am doing is giving an honest assessment of the mess that Israel and the USA has created.

Iran has been placed the position of fight or surrender. Trump has repeatedly stated he will destroy the nation and by extention all its people and 3000 year old culture. So how else are they supposed to react? Especially because THEY ARE WINNING. All the bases in the region are unusable. They have depleted the THAAD stocks. They are continuing to push the strike capabilities back further. And they are winning the propaganda war. And have the ability to withstand the economic damage while the west doesn't.

Meanwhile Chinese oil ships are being allowed through the bab strait. And are watching things unfold. Russia is also losing oil infrastructure putting further pressure on. Estimate now is 40-60 days to the SPR'S Worldwide dropping to critical points and causing serious economic damage due to very real oil hikes.

Things can still turn around. But its getting damn close.

And no, support IS NOT UNCONDITIONAL. I will not support a genocide in Iran. Or mass destruction.

Its literally a no win situation. So what is the least worst option?
 
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Carpa

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Butler1000 said:
No one is "supporting" anything. What I am doing is giving an honest assessment of the mess that Israel and the USA has created.

Iran has been placed the position of fight or surrender. Trump has repeatedly stated he will destroy the nation and by extention all its people and 3000 year old culture. So how else are they supposed to react? Especially because THEY ARE WINNING. All the bases in the region are unusable. They have depleted the THAAD stocks. They are continuing to push the strike capabilities back further. And they are winning the propaganda war. And have the ability to withstand the economic damage while the west doesn't.

Meanwhile Chinese oil ships are being allowed through the bab strait. And are watching things unfold. Russia is also losing oil infrastructure putting further pressure on. Estimate now is 40-60 days to the SPR'S Worldwide dropping to critical points and causing serious economic damage due to very real oil hikes.

Things can still turn around. But its getting damn close.

And no, support IS NOT UNCONDITIONAL. I will not support a genocide in Iran. Or mass destruction.

Its literally a no win situation. So what is the least worst option?
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I disagree with that, the mess and the problem started 40 years ago by the Ayatollahs and their butchers. If anything the US and Israel are doing the right thing trying to correct the situation. The danger of these wackos having nuclear weapons is worth paying the price. They're not rational and they can't be trusted as seen the multiple times they attacked ships during the truce.
 
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Butler1000

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Carpa said:
I disagree with that, the mess and the problem started 40 years ago by the Ayatollahs and their butchers. If anything the US and Israel are doing the right thing trying to correct the situation. The danger of these wackos having nuclear weapons is worth paying the price. They're not rational and they can't be trusted as seen the multiple times they attacked ships during the truce.
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If you want to play that game then it started in 1953 when the USA engineered a coup against a democracy and installed the Shah. All for oil. So no you can't go there.

And the price is the END of oil in the middle east for decades. A major Islamic uprising around the world. Another decade of rebuilding the oil infrastructure. And a world wide GLOBAL DEPRESSION.

OR......

Broker a deal, via the Chinese. USA out of the region. And a small toll on ships.

That is the stark reality.
 
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Carpa

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Butler1000 said:
If you want to play that game then it started in 1953 when the USA engineered a coup against a democracy and installed the Shah. All for oil. So no you can't go there.

And the price is the END of oil in the middle east for decades. A major Islamic uprising around the world. Another decade of rebuilding the oil infrastructure. And a world wide GLOBAL DEPRESSION.

OR......

Broker a deal, via the Chinese. USA out of the region. And a small toll on ships.

That is the stark reality.
Click to expand...
Bottom line there's a bunch of religious wide eyed Psychos working hard to obtain Nuclear weapons and they're using other groups or countries as proxies to create mayhem. They said they will never stop the nukes. I align myself with those trying to get rid of them.
 
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Butler1000

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Carpa said:
Bottom line there's a bunch of religious wide eyed Psychos working hard to obtain Nuclear weapons and they're using other groups or countries as proxies to create mayhem. They said they will never stop the nukes. I align myself with those trying to get rid of them.
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Sorry did you just describe Israel who stole nuclear secrets for their ethno religious state, is committing a genocide in Gaza, annexed the Golan Heights, ethnic clensing in the West Bank, initiated a civil war in Syria, and initiated the war with Iran, using the USA?

Just checking.......

See not looking so good are they. Sorry but times change. Israel is no longer the underdog. They are the bad guys in this case. Well the worse bad guys.

So stop asking what is best for them, and ask what is best for Csnada.
 
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Carpa

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Butler1000 said:
Sorry did you just describe Israel who stole nuclear secrets for their ethno religious state, is committing a genocide in Gaza, annexed the Golan Heights, ethnic clensing in the West Bank, initiated a civil war in Syria, and initiated the war with Iran, using the USA?

Just checking.......

See not looking so good are they. Sorry but times change. Israel is no longer the underdog. They are the bad guys in this case. Well the worse bad guys.

So stop asking what is best for them, and ask what is best for Csnada.
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😂😂😂 Its Franky !!!!
 
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Butler1000

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Carpa said:
😂😂😂 Its Franky !!!!
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Not at all. Again. I get that Islamo-fascism is a thing and a threat. And needs containment. But that is NOT THE BIG issue here. Its the world economy and oil markets. Its about the possibility and now heading into the probability of a world DEPRESSION.

WHICH LEADS TO FAMINE, AND ANOTHER MIGRANT CRISIS. That is the real greater issue. Not a particular "victory" which is actually just the initiation of another 20 year middle east war.
 
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