Recession Effect on SPs and Clients
- Thread starter mrfatcock
- Start date
They don’t make recessions like they used to… the current technical recession Canada is experiencing is shallow by historical standards (early 80s and early 90s saw much deeper recessions) and central banks and governments in developed countries have developed numerous tools in the past 2-3 decades to shorten the length of economic downturns.
Also, in the past few decades, we have witnessed a massive increase in the value of financial assets - see stocks, bitcoin, and recently precious metals. So even if median incomes have not kept pace and a longer recession would definitely mean more job losses/even greater inequality, there will be a significant portion of the population with enough paper wealth as to cushion any financial impact and still allow for indulging in the hobby.
Worst case scenario would be for Canada to experience a severe and prolonged stagflationary period (think negative GDP growth for over a year, with unemployment at least another 1% higher than present and official core inflation running at 3-4% or higher), leading to a bear market in stocks (for Canada, track bank stocks as a proxy for this) and a broad-based correction in housing (one that affects both condo and detached housing at all price points).
We’re not there yet and it’s unlikely we will be heading that way unless the US economy implodes, which could happen if an AI bubble bursts (notice “an” AI bubble, not “the” AI bubble, as it’s too early to say on that front as well).
So yeah, I wouldn’t expect any impact on the industry at present but something to track over the next year.
Also, in the past few decades, we have witnessed a massive increase in the value of financial assets - see stocks, bitcoin, and recently precious metals. So even if median incomes have not kept pace and a longer recession would definitely mean more job losses/even greater inequality, there will be a significant portion of the population with enough paper wealth as to cushion any financial impact and still allow for indulging in the hobby.
Worst case scenario would be for Canada to experience a severe and prolonged stagflationary period (think negative GDP growth for over a year, with unemployment at least another 1% higher than present and official core inflation running at 3-4% or higher), leading to a bear market in stocks (for Canada, track bank stocks as a proxy for this) and a broad-based correction in housing (one that affects both condo and detached housing at all price points).
We’re not there yet and it’s unlikely we will be heading that way unless the US economy implodes, which could happen if an AI bubble bursts (notice “an” AI bubble, not “the” AI bubble, as it’s too early to say on that front as well).
So yeah, I wouldn’t expect any impact on the industry at present but something to track over the next year.
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It’s early stay tuned. You ain’t seen nothing yet……..
I don’t necessarily disagree with you - I also think time will tell.
But your answer is too easy… what do you expect to see?
I'm no economist but feel the Middle East fiasco is the grinding wheel that'll dictate most of what's to come... In tandem with the Taiwan China US situation...
Hard K-shaped recession. Hobbyists are 90% on the upper tangent of the K. The guys getting financially wrecked weren't buying before anyway, or were only able to afford to very irregularly. Indy scene that used to catch a lot of the demand that did exist on the lower end has largely died out, for a variety of reasons. A lot of scamming and general sketchiness, lack of advertising options and harder drugs wiping out functional addicts being a thing and creating street zombies who cannot work. The former low end buyers have largely retreated into porn addiction as good enough and free. The ambitious semi-pro indy girls (not paying for a bad habit) have followed the porn addicts into doing OF/streaming or often more successfully, playing long-con "dating" with a handful of ongoing simps vs open advertising for attention by the hour.
The K shape effect is causing a split in the sex work industry between the high and low end markets. Upper tangent is trending towards Agencies with excellent customer service and reliable quality of providers and services, for an inflation-tracking price from the 300s and pushing into the 400s/hr. Lower tangent of the K is going for online and virtual/porn content that is virtually free in comparison (due to the inherent socialism of streaming or porn, 300 guys can put in 1 dollar to "share" on girl's 1 hour session.)
Final impact on the industry? Death of the middle class, both provider and buyer. No more BP/LEO etc treasure hunting by working Joe or slumming upper middle dudes.
The K shape effect is causing a split in the sex work industry between the high and low end markets. Upper tangent is trending towards Agencies with excellent customer service and reliable quality of providers and services, for an inflation-tracking price from the 300s and pushing into the 400s/hr. Lower tangent of the K is going for online and virtual/porn content that is virtually free in comparison (due to the inherent socialism of streaming or porn, 300 guys can put in 1 dollar to "share" on girl's 1 hour session.)
Final impact on the industry? Death of the middle class, both provider and buyer. No more BP/LEO etc treasure hunting by working Joe or slumming upper middle dudes.
I think an sp working in the industry would most likely know more than we would how their business is doing.
Supply increasing and demand decreasing. In theory, this leads to increased competition and lower rates. We'll have to wait and see.
The top earners/most popular still make bank as they are inelastic but newer/mid performers will definitely feel the impact as there are less Johns looking to try something new.
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Personally I haven't found much of a difference between now and a few years ago. If anything when my rates increased I got busier, which really did surprise me. There's always a lot of anxiety when you move up in rate, and it was months of contemplation before I pulled the trigger. I find that most of the differences come from the different seasons. I find the summer gets a little slower especially when the weather just starts to get warm, as people go outside and actually touch grass 
there's much less to do in the winter so I find it's busier then. Things slow down again temporarily during Ramadan as well. Overall though I'm pretty lucky to be busy most of the time so I can't complain 
there's much less to do in the winter so I find it's busier then. Things slow down again temporarily during Ramadan as well. Overall though I'm pretty lucky to be busy most of the time so I can't complain 
This happened to me as well. Rate went up and busier than before. Although, I always train myself to know that this is all unpredictable and try to be prepared.Personally I haven't found much of a difference between now and a few years ago. If anything when my rates increased I got busier, which really did surprise me. There's always a lot of anxiety when you move up in rate, and it was months of contemplation before I pulled the trigger. I find that most of the differences come from the different seasons. I find the summer gets a little slower especially when the weather just starts to get warm, as people go outside and actually touch grass
The anxiety is that if you move up in rate, maybe no one is going to book you as they don't think you're worth the higher rate
In response to post # 5 above, here’s a thought:
Elevated US T- bill rates, $39 trillion US debt and rising inflation in the US (now at 4%) will result in debasement of the US dollar and a depression in the US. As well Americans are experiencing high consumer debt driven by declining middle-class purchasing power. We usually mirror America’s financial woes and Canada will catch this American flu because our economies are too closely intertwined. I cannot comment on timing and when this shit will hit the fan. We in Canada have our own issues with inflation/higher prices, a weak job market etc and it will worsen. Many Canadians are, will, have been experiencing a reduction in disposable income. The hobbying industry will suffer and prices should come down. As well service levels will decline as many new women enter the business; we see it daily and this whole situation sucks.
I’m not an economist and I don’t play one on TV. I apologise in advance for the grammar.
Elevated US T- bill rates, $39 trillion US debt and rising inflation in the US (now at 4%) will result in debasement of the US dollar and a depression in the US. As well Americans are experiencing high consumer debt driven by declining middle-class purchasing power. We usually mirror America’s financial woes and Canada will catch this American flu because our economies are too closely intertwined. I cannot comment on timing and when this shit will hit the fan. We in Canada have our own issues with inflation/higher prices, a weak job market etc and it will worsen. Many Canadians are, will, have been experiencing a reduction in disposable income. The hobbying industry will suffer and prices should come down. As well service levels will decline as many new women enter the business; we see it daily and this whole situation sucks.
I’m not an economist and I don’t play one on TV. I apologise in advance for the grammar.
Can't say how a K shaped economy will impact this industry, but addiction is definitely real for some guys.
Remember reading a story on S9 about a guy who would collect bottles from the trash just to make extra money. another one cut down to one meal a day so he could save up. They had to see at least one girl a week, no matter what. If they could, they would see a girl every single day
It's wild what people will do when the urge takes over.
Remember reading a story on S9 about a guy who would collect bottles from the trash just to make extra money. another one cut down to one meal a day so he could save up. They had to see at least one girl a week, no matter what. If they could, they would see a girl every single day
It's wild what people will do when the urge takes over.
I've read this so many times. People say rates will go down, but the opposite happens.
Rates will never go back to pre-COVID levels.
This thing is recession-proof.
Lately I've seen a few SPs on Tryst ($800+) taking 100–$200 off their rates. Not sure if it's the recession or something else
They are just trying to find the sweet spot. Experiment with rates to stay busy but still make it worth for them to do this work. Ladies consider the bare minimum they will accept in order to provide services.
