I think the one to watch for that is Israel. The rest just won't do it. But a conventional proxy war in the Gulf is entirely possible. And that likely leads to seaborn commerce warfare. They are already seizing ghost ships of Russian oil. Even just the threat hikes insurance to the point of curtailing it.
No oil, fertilizer, helium alone from the Gulf makes for a global depression. Famine, energy shutdowns.
Gas in Australia is at USD 11 per gallon right now. Other nations are instituting various shortage policy.
And its literally a matter of weeks, maybe 2 months before this starts up. I'm just not seeing an off ramp right now.