And Iran will launch at all the oil facilities in the GCC.
I agree, but not at the elite levels.
In 1990, Iraq under Saddam Hussein invaded neighbouring Kuwait. A US-led coalition of 35 countries was formed under the authority of the United Nations. It took four months to assemble ground and air forces in Saudi Arabia. On 17 January 1991, coalition air forces began striking Iraqi targets. The air campaign lasted until 24 February.Over five weeks, Iraq’s military capabilities were systematically dismantled so that by the time coalition ground forces attacked there was little organised resistance. The ground offensive lasted just four days. Kuwait was liberated quickly. Coalition forces could probably have pushed on to Baghdad and implemented regime change. But this was never a stated objective.In 2003, George W. Bush concluded that the threat posed by Iraqi weapons of mass destruction justified regime change. A second Gulf conflict followed. Again, air power preceded a rapid ground offensive. Saddam Hussein’s regime collapsed four weeks later.The problem with Iraq was that regime change did not make life better for ordinary Iraqis. Key infrastructure was badly damaged during the initial campaign and there was no coherent plan for what would follow Saddam’s removal. The chaos and suffering that followed meant the coalition quickly lost the hearts and minds of the Iraqi people.A hugely successful blitzkrieg-style decapitation campaign, completed in weeks, demonstrated the effectiveness of US manoeuvre warfare and precision strike capabilities. But the lack of a reconstruction strategy meant that a decisive conventional victory gave way to a long and bloody insurgency that lasted until 2011. Around 200 American and British soldiers were killed in the initial invasion, but total coalition fatalities eventually reached about 4,800.Fast forward to today. US forces appear to be following a similar opening strategy: the systematic degradation of Iran’s military capabilities through precision strikes against key targets. We are only two weeks into this process - roughly half the time it took to neutralise Iraq in 1991.But Iran is not Iraq.Iran is a far more complex adversary. Its landmass is almost four times larger than Iraq’s. Given its long history of confrontation with the United States, Iran has had decades to prepare for the possibility of conflict.Its military capabilities are widely dispersed across the country, and command structures appear designed to operate even if central leadership is disrupted. Iran has also prepared deterrent “poison pills”. One example is the threat to close the Strait of Hormuz using mines, missiles, and fast attack craft. Even temporary disruption could affect a large share of global oil exports.The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps numbers around 200,000 personnel. Iran can also mobilise very large manpower reserves through the Basij militia and the regular Iranian Army. It can probably mobilise 1.5+ million personnel. (Source: Prof. Michael Clark, RUSI) Meanwhile, it maintains significant inventories of armour, including 1,500 tanks, 6,000 artillery pieces, and significant stockpiles of drones, and ballistic missiles. (Source: IISS Yearbook: The Military Balance 2024).Iran is also highly experienced in operating in the so-called grey zone. It is adept at information warfare and may seek to shape global opinion through propaganda, disinformation, and false flag attacks. Sleeper networks and proxy groups abroad could pose additional risks.Nor should we forget Iran’s relationships with Russia and China. While direct military intervention is unlikely, both states may provide intelligence, diplomatic support, or indirect assistance. Moscow in particular will be assessing how the situation might serve its broader strategic interests.Iran does not yet possess a nuclear weapon and remains conventionally inferior to the United States. Even so, degrading its capabilities from the air could take weeks or months. Initial strikes have reportedly focused on leadership nodes, air defence systems, airfields, and naval assets. When total air superiority has been achieved, the focus can be expected to switch to Iranian ground forces. This is what should lead to a tipping point where the regime is neutralised. Behind the scenes, Washington will almost certainly hope that internal pressure inside Iran produces political change from within. That outcome would be vastly preferable to committing US ground forces. But given America’s proven ability to conduct decisive manoeuvre warfare, limited and tightly defined troop deployments cannot be ruled out.The United States will also have learned from Iraq. It knows that maintaining the support of the Iranian population is essential. Minimising civilian casualties and infrastructure damage will therefore be paramount.The major difference between Iraq in 1991 and 2003 versus Iran today is the role of intelligence and technology. Israel’s intelligence network is widely has provided detailed insights into Iranian command structures and force deployments.Even more significant is the growing role of advanced intelligence technologies, including satellite surveillance, real-time reconnaissance, and electronic warfare systems. Integrated with AI-enabled analytical tools, these systems are accelerating situational awareness, mission planning, and targeting decisions in ways that were not possible in earlier conflicts. Many of these capabilities have been refined through Western support to Ukraine over the past four years.None of this means regime change in Iran will be a walk in the park. Iran is larger, more prepared, and more deeply entrenched than Iraq ever was. But modern warfare has changed. Precision strike, intelligence overmatch, and AI-enabled decision-making are creating a new form of “shock and awe” - one defined less by mass and more by speed, information, and economy of effort.Have you seen Hegseth's Crusade tats? Listened to Graham and Cruz? Ben Gvir and many others?
Iran will be stupid to do so, if they stop there is a 100% chance they will be attacked by the USA and Israel again. Maybe a 200% chance
so if there is to be any security for Iran in the future this is the war. As they destroy the gulf dependant Western economies, they elevate the position of China and Russia in the great power balance, and that is just fine by them.Hopefully someday the Saudis will send the bonesaw dude to collect, .And Tell THAT To The Families Of The Fallen
Jared Kushner Solicits Funds for His Firm While Working as Mideast Envoy
President Trump’s son-in-law is trying to raise $5 billion or more from foreign governments and others for his private equity firm.
Jared Kushner, the founder of Affinity Partners, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January.Credit...Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
By Rob Copeland and Maureen Farrell
Rob Copeland and Maureen Farrell are finance reporters in New York.
March 13, 2026, 8:46 p.m. ET
Jared Kushner, one of the U.S. government’s chief negotiators in the Middle East, is trying to raise more money for his private equity firm from governments in the region.
Mr. Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law, has spoken with potential investors in recent weeks about raising $5 billion or more for Affinity Partners, his investment firm, according to five people with knowledge of the talks who were not permitted to speak publicly about the discussions.
As part of the fund-raising effort, Affinity’s representatives have already met with Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, which invests the proceeds of the kingdom’s vast oil reserves, two of the people briefed on the discussions said. PIF is led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has formed close ties with Mr. Kushner and the Trump administration.
PIF, which is already the largest and earliest investor in Affinity, invested $2 billion soon after the first Trump administration ended.
As part of that deal, the Saudis must be given the first chance to invest during any subsequent attempts by Affinity to raise funds, the two people said. Other Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds that invested earlier in Affinity, including those in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, are also expected to be asked for more, the people said.
Want to stay updated on what’s happening in Saudi Arabia? Sign up for Your Places: Global Update, and we’ll send our latest coverage to your inbox.
Mr. Kushner’s fund-raising is expected to stretch on for the better part of this year.
The efforts show the blurring of the lines between public service and private profit-seeking during Mr. Trump’s second term. Only a few weeks ago, in his role as Mr. Trump’s “peace envoy,” Mr. Kushner met in Geneva with Iran’s foreign minister. The U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign in Iran began shortly after those meetings concluded without a deal on Iran’s nuclear program.
Mr. Kushner, 45, also spearheaded the Trump administration’s successful efforts to extract hostages from Gaza and negotiated between Russia and Ukraine in an attempt to end their war.
In January, Mr. Kushner traveled to Davos, Switzerland, as part of the official U.S. delegation at the World Economic Forum, where he unveiled the Trump administration’s plan for a “New Gaza.”
While at Davos, Kushner also discussed his plans to raise billions in new investments for Affinity in private meetings with international business leaders, two people with knowledge of the conversations said.
As recently as December 2024, Mr. Kushner suggested that he would not seek more money for Affinity during Mr. Trump’s second term. That month, he told the podcaster Patrick O’Shaughnessy that he would “pre-emptively try to avoid any conflicts.”
“We don’t have to raise capital for the next four years,” Mr. Kushner added.
That appears to have changed. In materials provided to potential investors this year and reviewed by The New York Times, Affinity indicated that more than three-quarters of the roughly $5 billion it had raised since its founding had already been spent on investments in companies such as Phoenix Financial, an Israeli insurer, and Revolut, a financial technology start-up.
Affinity’s preliminary internal projections suggest that it has earned an estimated 25 percent rate of return since its 2021 founding, the documents show.
The scion of a prominent real estate family, Mr. Kushner is a relative newcomer to private equity, an industry where giant investors buy part or all of companies and try to improve the businesses before selling them.
When he began Affinity, based in Miami, he leaned heavily on his government contacts. During the first Trump administration, Mr. Kushner served as a senior adviser to his father-in-law, often accompanying him on trips to meet with foreign officials.
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In addition to the roughly $2 billion from Saudi Arabia’s fund, he amassed hundreds of millions of dollars from elsewhere in the region. That raised hackles from government watchdog groups — complaints that Mr. Kushner has frequently publicly dismissed by challenging critics to identify a specific conflict of interest.
This week, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, a left-leaning advocacy group, asked in a public letter to the White House that Mr. Kushner be subject to financial disclosure rules similar to other public servants. A White House spokesman did not return a request for comment on the group’s request.
‘Let’s not forget the other grifter, Steve Witkoff and his grubby offspringAnd Tell THAT To The Families Of The Fallen
Jared Kushner Solicits Funds for His Firm While Working as Mideast Envoy
President Trump’s son-in-law is trying to raise $5 billion or more from foreign governments and others for his private equity firm.
Jared Kushner, the founder of Affinity Partners, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January.Credit...Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
By Rob Copeland and Maureen Farrell
Rob Copeland and Maureen Farrell are finance reporters in New York.
March 13, 2026, 8:46 p.m. ET
Jared Kushner, one of the U.S. government’s chief negotiators in the Middle East, is trying to raise more money for his private equity firm from governments in the region.
Mr. Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law, has spoken with potential investors in recent weeks about raising $5 billion or more for Affinity Partners, his investment firm, according to five people with knowledge of the talks who were not permitted to speak publicly about the discussions.
As part of the fund-raising effort, Affinity’s representatives have already met with Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, which invests the proceeds of the kingdom’s vast oil reserves, two of the people briefed on the discussions said. PIF is led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has formed close ties with Mr. Kushner and the Trump administration.
PIF, which is already the largest and earliest investor in Affinity, invested $2 billion soon after the first Trump administration ended.
As part of that deal, the Saudis must be given the first chance to invest during any subsequent attempts by Affinity to raise funds, the two people said. Other Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds that invested earlier in Affinity, including those in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, are also expected to be asked for more, the people said.
Want to stay updated on what’s happening in Saudi Arabia? Sign up for Your Places: Global Update, and we’ll send our latest coverage to your inbox.
Mr. Kushner’s fund-raising is expected to stretch on for the better part of this year.
The efforts show the blurring of the lines between public service and private profit-seeking during Mr. Trump’s second term. Only a few weeks ago, in his role as Mr. Trump’s “peace envoy,” Mr. Kushner met in Geneva with Iran’s foreign minister. The U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign in Iran began shortly after those meetings concluded without a deal on Iran’s nuclear program.
Mr. Kushner, 45, also spearheaded the Trump administration’s successful efforts to extract hostages from Gaza and negotiated between Russia and Ukraine in an attempt to end their war.
In January, Mr. Kushner traveled to Davos, Switzerland, as part of the official U.S. delegation at the World Economic Forum, where he unveiled the Trump administration’s plan for a “New Gaza.”
While at Davos, Kushner also discussed his plans to raise billions in new investments for Affinity in private meetings with international business leaders, two people with knowledge of the conversations said.
As recently as December 2024, Mr. Kushner suggested that he would not seek more money for Affinity during Mr. Trump’s second term. That month, he told the podcaster Patrick O’Shaughnessy that he would “pre-emptively try to avoid any conflicts.”
“We don’t have to raise capital for the next four years,” Mr. Kushner added.
That appears to have changed. In materials provided to potential investors this year and reviewed by The New York Times, Affinity indicated that more than three-quarters of the roughly $5 billion it had raised since its founding had already been spent on investments in companies such as Phoenix Financial, an Israeli insurer, and Revolut, a financial technology start-up.
Affinity’s preliminary internal projections suggest that it has earned an estimated 25 percent rate of return since its 2021 founding, the documents show.
The scion of a prominent real estate family, Mr. Kushner is a relative newcomer to private equity, an industry where giant investors buy part or all of companies and try to improve the businesses before selling them.
When he began Affinity, based in Miami, he leaned heavily on his government contacts. During the first Trump administration, Mr. Kushner served as a senior adviser to his father-in-law, often accompanying him on trips to meet with foreign officials.
Advertisement
In addition to the roughly $2 billion from Saudi Arabia’s fund, he amassed hundreds of millions of dollars from elsewhere in the region. That raised hackles from government watchdog groups — complaints that Mr. Kushner has frequently publicly dismissed by challenging critics to identify a specific conflict of interest.
This week, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, a left-leaning advocacy group, asked in a public letter to the White House that Mr. Kushner be subject to financial disclosure rules similar to other public servants. A White House spokesman did not return a request for comment on the group’s request.
www.timesofisrael.com
Iran can make a drone for about what Israel pays to social media influencers per post.
Iran has already laid mines. Iranian ships are shipping more oil than before and countries are making deals with Iran directly instead of america.
Russia and China are winning bigly so far.
I have my doubts about this being true because Iranian, Russian, and Chinese ships can pass. Mines do not discriminate and can't read the names of ships. They can attack ships in other ways, but actual mines I have my doubts.
The latest is that trump is sending 5000 and deserting Asia to leave Taiwan totally unguarded.
You are assuming that Iran wouldn't leave a path through that they can direct ships to use?
My concern is that as justified as Iran is to hit these neighbouring oil states for their part in supporting the aggression, it plays right into Israeli hands
They are doing what is easiest to do for them. The reality is, militarily, they are getting pummeled.
