2025-2026 Leafs Season
- Thread starter glamphotographer
- Start date
The Blues pick up a point and are now 5pts back of the Leafs. Let's see if the Jets and Preds can get points.
This is not a revelation. This is the expected and is required for the tank job that you so desire.
Apparently the hockey panel thinks Jets will make the playoffs.
That's good news for you.
The Blues last 15 games 9 of them were 1 goal games.
2 of them they won in a blowout.
The games they lost were by no more than 2 goals.
Bonus the Jets have 3 games in hand, Preds have 2 games in hand, and both the NYR and Blues have 1 game in hand.
Florida beat Det.
By pts % as you like to use the Leafs and Jets are tied. Jets, however, have more regulation wins so technically Leafs are currently 6th outright. If they're going to tank they can't stop here.
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Yep, I'm hoping for a bottom-5 pick in 2026. 2026 dfrat is deep. Worry about Boston getting our unconditional 1st in 2027 for 2027.
I was going to do the math myself but I asked google instead and here's what it returned.
a team finishing with the 4th-best lottery odds has a 20.5% to 20.8% chance of landing the 6th overall
Here is the breakdown of expected outcomes for the 5th-place team:
So here's the difference between finishing 4th, 5th, and 6th before the lottery balls drop.
4th means roughly 20.5% chance pick goes to Boston or 79.5% Leafs pick
5th means roughly 58% chance pick goes to Boston or 42% Leafs pick
6th means roughly 84.5% chance pick goes to Boston or 15.5% Leafs pick but it'll be 1st or 2nd overall
a team finishing with the 4th-best lottery odds has a 20.5% to 20.8% chance of landing the 6th overall
Here is the breakdown of expected outcomes for the 5th-place team:
- Move Up (1st or 2nd): ~17% total (8.5% for 1st, ~8.6% for 2nd).
- Stay (5th): ~24.7%.
- Drop (6th or 7th): ~58% total (44% chance to drop to 6th, ~14% chance to drop to 7th).
So here's the difference between finishing 4th, 5th, and 6th before the lottery balls drop.
4th means roughly 20.5% chance pick goes to Boston or 79.5% Leafs pick
5th means roughly 58% chance pick goes to Boston or 42% Leafs pick
6th means roughly 84.5% chance pick goes to Boston or 15.5% Leafs pick but it'll be 1st or 2nd overall
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You want to get the top 5 pick this year. It appears to be a good draft, and who knows about 2028. And you want to get assets in earlier.
But it won't be a total disaster if they have to convey. Because now they will keep their 2028 pick, which has fairly high odds of being a top 5 pick (whether they move players or not). They could start next phase of the asset accumulation process / rebuild one year earlier in the summer of 2027, after they miss the playoffs again in 2027.
And I don't say this as a troll. The odds of the Leafs being a playoff team are just not good.
But it won't be a total disaster if they have to convey. Because now they will keep their 2028 pick, which has fairly high odds of being a top 5 pick (whether they move players or not). They could start next phase of the asset accumulation process / rebuild one year earlier in the summer of 2027, after they miss the playoffs again in 2027.
And I don't say this as a troll. The odds of the Leafs being a playoff team are just not good.
If they aren't making the playoffs in 2027 then ideally they give the pick to Flyers in the 11 to 16 range and go full blown tank rebuild and not leave the 2028 pick unprotected for the Flyers. Unless of course they're picking top 5.
with a game in hand and more regulation wins.
Who would have thought Leafs having one of the toughest schedules to end the season was a benefit.
Up next Anaheim. They're 1st in their Division and 8-2 in their last 10 games but they're -7 goal differential.
Don't know how they're doing it. Their 75 pts, however, would be below 9 teams in the East.
Their leading scorer is below a point per game and all their goalies have GAA above 3 and save % below .900
This may be a game Woll takes it down for the Leafs. He did play well last game and kept it close.
Columbus was last in the East when they fired their head coach on Jan 12. They're now 2 pts back of Boston for the last wild card and 3 pts back of 3rd in the Division with a game in hand. They have only 1 regulation loss in their last 10 games. They're likely to make the playoffs while peaking. The Leafs fired their assistant coach on Dec 22 but they did not fire their head coach.
Buffalo was last in the East this season on Dec 9. They fired their general manager on Dec 15. They are now first in the Division and 2 pts behind Carolina for tops in the East. The Leafs were last in the East on Dec 23. They did not fire their general manager.
Don't know how they're doing it. Their 75 pts, however, would be below 9 teams in the East.
Their leading scorer is below a point per game and all their goalies have GAA above 3 and save % below .900
This may be a game Woll takes it down for the Leafs. He did play well last game and kept it close.
Columbus was last in the East when they fired their head coach on Jan 12. They're now 2 pts back of Boston for the last wild card and 3 pts back of 3rd in the Division with a game in hand. They have only 1 regulation loss in their last 10 games. They're likely to make the playoffs while peaking. The Leafs fired their assistant coach on Dec 22 but they did not fire their head coach.
Buffalo was last in the East this season on Dec 9. They fired their general manager on Dec 15. They are now first in the Division and 2 pts behind Carolina for tops in the East. The Leafs were last in the East on Dec 23. They did not fire their general manager.
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I didn't beg the Leafs to tank, but man did they get the memo on trying to keep that 1st rounder this year.
The firings seem to be a working theme, no sense in firing any Leafs management or coaches. The tank job is working very well.
Fucking Gudas stuck his knee out, taking out Matthews. Bonehead play by Gudas, the Leafs aren't competing for a playoff spot, but the ducks are, and Gudas could face suspension.
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Carlos has to be the most gutless/heartless big man playing in the NHL. He was two feet away and saw Stolarz got run over and did nothing. Tonight he saw his captain got destroyed by one of the dirtiest players in the league and he acted as if nothing happened. This is one of the worse trades Treliving has made.
Finally the Leafs managed to win a game beating the Ducks, after losing 8 games in a row.
Matthews suffered a lower body body injury after scoring a goal, and left the game without returning.
That Ducks player played dirty by kneeing him and it was so painful that he fell on the ground not able to get up.
It was a short handed goal. Matthews paid a big price for that goal.
CP
Matthews suffered a lower body body injury after scoring a goal, and left the game without returning.
That Ducks player played dirty by kneeing him and it was so painful that he fell on the ground not able to get up.
It was a short handed goal. Matthews paid a big price for that goal.
CP
