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The 2017 Blue Jay season thread

Phil C. McNasty

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Dec 27, 2010
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During the 2015 regular season, the Jays had a very good offensive year and led the American League in the following categories including doubles and home runs:

891 Runs
308 Doubles
232 Home Runs
852 RBI's
570 Walks
.340 OBP
.457 Slugging %
.797 OPS
62 Sacrifice Flys

They ranked second in the AL in the following:

.269 Batting Average
36 Sacrifice Bunts

In terms of stolen bases, they ranked 4th with 88 and first in caught stealing 23 (79% success rate which is above average). They ranked 5th in strikeouts and last in triples (17 for the year).

They had the team to win the World Series in 2015 but the eventual World Series champions KC Royals beat them in the ALCS. The Jays were a far superior offensive team than KC during the regular season but the hotter team won the series and their momentum carried them all the way to the World Series title.

The only thing the Jays really lacked offensively in 2015 was the number of triples but they more than made up for this by the number of home runs and doubles hit and they were in the Top 2 in sacrifice bunts and fly balls
Thanks for posting. Thats interesting.

But TBF that was 2015, how do they rank in 2017 so far??
 

black booty lover

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I agree with most of what you wrote, but I would hardly call this year " a disaster " for Albert Pujols. He currently has 48 RBI's which is 3rd in the league, and that's without Trout hitting ahead of him for quite a few games since his injury.
It's a disaster in the sense that he's only batting .236 with 11 home runs at that price tag. Take him out the clean up spot and those RBI's are a lot lower.
 

Samranchoi

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See, this is the part that I don't think will happen. With PED testing so prevalent in MLB now, age 36 and over plays like age 36 again. Teams just aren't interested in guys over 36 with high price tags.
The problem with the Pujols contract was that the Angels overpaid him from the beginning but hoping to get at least 5 years of his prime production. He was on the decline when he signed and has not played anywhere close to his first 10 years with St Louis. For Harper, he will want to be the highest paid player and there are teams that will want him and they will need to sign him long term. The last 5 years of the contract will probably see him as an overpaid player but on long term deals, teams are paying a premium for the first part of the contract. I do agree, that a 10 year contract is probably the best way for a team to go but the average year value of the contract will probably be in the mid $40 million range, which sounds totally insane.
 

Samranchoi

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Thanks for posting. Thats interesting.

But TBF that was 2015, how do they rank in 2017 so far??
So far in 2017 I have no idea. I was only providing the 2015 stats as many think the Jays were not doubles hitters which is totally incorrect as they lead the league. They were also very good bunting, hitting sac flys and stealing bases as compared to the other teams in the AL. Even with all this, they still didn't get the the WS.

Last night's game they hit 3 doubles with Goins double in the bottom of the ninth starting the comeback to victory.
 

Phil C. McNasty

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Last night's game they hit 3 doubles with Goins double in the bottom of the ninth starting the comeback to victory
And lots of Goins hits have been clutch this season
 

Insidious Von

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I'm disappointed that Rangers fans didn't give Joey Boom Bats a standing booo, he might have hit for the cycle.

Baseball has become much more strict on PED testing, at least more so than tennis. Still can't believe Maria Sharapova got dinged for PED's and Serena Williams hasn't - must be politically motivated.
 

Perry Mason

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I hate to bring up an old saw, but the game's strategy is determined by the manager...

And I would like to say a word about Smoak: WOW!

Also about Loup: 26.2 innings pitched; 28 SO's; 2.7 ERA. Very impressive!

Perry
 

Zoot Allures

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Jan 23, 2017
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Now what to do about Estrada??!! He seems to have completely lost the plot the last 4 starts.
Lets hope its just a midseason slump
So Estrada is a control pitcher. He has a big lead in 4 and is throwing wildly and walks 2 now bases are loaded and Gibby leaves him in until Texas gets lead then he takes him out? WTF!

How about bring in Osuna to get out of inning to preserve big lead? Why always wait until inning 9 before bringing in your best reliever ? Can someone explain that strategy?

Concerning Estrada, he has arguably been our best starter in last season and this one until his last 4 starts so, yes we need him sharp as much as any starter we have .
 

Samranchoi

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So Estrada is a control pitcher. He has a big lead in 4 and is throwing wildly and walks 2 now bases are loaded and Gibby leaves him in until Texas gets lead then he takes him out? WTF!

How about bring in Osuna to get out of inning with big lead still preserved? Why always wait until inning 9 before bringing in your best reliever ? Can someone explain that strategy?
Gibbons probably left Estrada in too long but in the end it didn't matter because he pulled all the correct pitching strings after Texas got the one run lead as the bullpen didn't allow a hit after Estrada left the game. The offense did what it was supposed to do and regained the lead just in time. Blue Jays end the night with the win.

Humour us though. When was the last time you saw a teams number one closer (and I am talking about a true number one closer like Osuna), come into a regular season game in the 4th inning with the sole purpose of getting one out.
 

Zoot Allures

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Humour us though. When was the last time you saw a teams number one closer (and I am talking about a true number one closer like Osuna), come into a regular season game in the 4th inning with the sole purpose of getting one out.

You humor me and tell why it is a stupid idea if it is done to preserve a big lead , the presumption being closer will not be needed in ninth now that big lead is preserved


BTW, I have seen it done in playoffs and after the game the manager was asked his about his strategy (strategy worked and he won game ) and he said a run in the fourth is the same as a run in the ninth (I cannot remember which game so u have to take my word for it)
 

Samranchoi

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You humor me and tell why it is a stupid idea if it is done to preserve a big lead , the presumption being closer will not be needed in ninth now that big lead is preserved


BTW, I have seen it done in playoffs and after the game the manager was asked his about his strategy (strategy worked and he won game ) and he said a run in the fourth is the same as a run in the ninth (I cannot remember which game so u have to take my word for it)
Because it is a stupid thing to do in the 4th inning of a regular season game. You may have seen it in a playoff game but I have not so yes I have to take your word on it. After Estrada left the game, how many hits did Texas get? And who won the game? Osuna is the Jays closer. You can't manage like you are suggesting during the regular season in the teams 69th game.
 

Zoot Allures

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Because it is a stupid thing to do in the 4th inning of a regular season game. You may have seen it in a playoff game but I have not so yes I have to take your word on it. After Estrada left the game, how many hits did Texas get? And who won the game? Osuna is the Jays closer. You can't manage like you are suggesting during the regular season in the teams 69th game.
Why? You repeating that it is stupid does not make it stupid . That Texas never got more runs and the Jays eeked it out in the end is more chance than well thought out strategy

The only thing I can think of it is unadvisable to warm up closer more than once (although it is often done with secondary relievers) so he has become wasted if he is not needed early

Closer is only brought out in ninth when bases are empty and often bottom of order and no imminent threat and never used before ninth when batters are on bases and heart of lineup is due and you have lead ?
 

Samranchoi

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Why? You repeating that it is stupid does not make it stupid . That Texas never got more runs and the Jays eeked it out in the end is more chance than well thought out strategy
I never repeated that it was a stupid thing to do. I only said it was a stupid thing to do once. Why? Baseball is a game of strategy and roles. First role, you do not put your closer into a game in the 4th inning of a regular season game to stop potential runs from scoring, especially the 69th game. The Jays set up reliever Joe Smith was already unavailable for the game. Loup is only really used for lefties but he had to face more pitchers last night. The Jays have no other off days, I believe up to the All Star break. You cannot use pitchers like it is a win at all cost situation during the 69th game of the season. The playoffs is a different situation all together. Gibbons made the right decision which was to not use Osuna in the 4th inning. I am almost 100% sure no other manager in the major leagues would have put their number one closer in the game when you are suggesting. Baseball is a nine inning game, not 4, 5, 6, 7 or 8. Managers have to manage their teams not just for one regular season game, but for games that follow. Remember last year against Cleveland when in extra innings Gibbons used Goins and Barney to pitch and Cleveland went with the next day's starter. Well, Toronto lost the game but their starting rotation was not disrupted like Clevelands. Result, Toronto won the remaining 2 games in the series with Cleveland and went on to win 7 in a row.
 

Zoot Allures

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Baseball is a game of strategy and roles. First role, you do not put your closer into a game in the 4th inning of a regular season game to stop potential runs from scoring, especially the 69th game. The Jays set up reliever Joe Smith was already unavailable for the game. .


Ok that is valid reasoning . Actually, using number two reliever might make more sense in such a scenario which is seldom done as well .

The Jays have no other off days, I believe up to the All Star break. You cannot use pitchers like it is a win at all cost situation during the 69th game of the season. .
Using your closer before ninth does not upset the use of him in later games anymore than using him in ninth so I fail to see your point
The playoffs is a different situation all together. .


True.
I am almost 100% sure no other manager in the major leagues would have put their number one closer in the game when you are suggesting. .


I agree it must be a bad idea because no one does it but my question remains why not?


I repeat : Closer is only brought out in ninth when bases are empty and often bottom of order and no imminent threat and never used before ninth when batters are on bases and heart of lineup is due and you have lead ? The reasoning behind this strategy gives me pause . The only thing I can think of it is unadvisable to warm up closer more than once (although it is often done with secondary relievers) so he has become wasted if he is not actually needed early



Remember last year against Cleveland when in extra innings Gibbons used Goins and Barney to pitch and Cleveland went with the next day's starter. Well, Toronto lost the game but their starting rotation was not disrupted like Clevelands. Result, Toronto won the remaining 2 games in the series with Cleveland and went on to win 7 in a row.
Using starters in relief is different scenario totally than using ace reliever before ninth when there are actually runners on base
 

Samranchoi

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Ok that is valid reasoning . Actually, using number two reliever might make more sense in such a scenario which is seldom done as well .



Using your closer before ninth does not upset the use of him in later games anymore than using him in ninth



True




True. So I agree it must be a bad idea because no one does it but my question remains why not?
Using starters in relief is different scenario totally
Cleveland had to use a starter for 5 innings in the 19 inning game because they ran out of relievers. They used a total of 9 pitchers that day. Toronto used 8 pitchers plus Goins and Barney (who took the loss).

In regards to not using your #1 reliever in the 4th inning, managers don't do it because typically high end closers are used to the pressure of closing out games in the 9th inning. These are considered "high leverage" situations whereas, the 4th inning is not. Imagine if a manager uses his #1 closer in the 4th inning and as it turns out, he needs someone to close out the game for the win in the 9th, like last night with Osuna. Gibbons already did not have his #1 set up guy in Smith. He has no confidence in Grilli due to his numerous failures in the closer role previously. Closers are saved for situations like last night because they have the mental toughness that others may not have. Result, Osuna gets his 17th save in a row. Not every relief pitcher is able to close out games. Remember the problems the Jays had before Osuna came around.
 

Zoot Allures

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In regards to not using your #1 reliever in the 4th inning, managers don't do it because typically high end closers are used to the pressure of closing out games in the 9th inning. These are considered "high leverage" situations whereas, the 4th inning is not. Imagine if a manager uses his #1 closer in the 4th inning and as it turns out, he needs someone to close out the game for the win in the 9th, like last night with Osuna. Gibbons already did not have his #1 set up guy in Smith. He has no confidence in Grilli due to his numerous failures in the closer role previously. Closers are saved for situations like last night because they have the mental toughness that others may not have. Result, Osuna gets his 17th save in a row. Not every relief pitcher is able to close out games. Remember the problems the Jays had before Osuna came around.
I agree with closers being best reliever in tense scenarios which reinforces my idea of using them before ninth in a tense situation


Yes he may be needed in ninth but game could became lost before then and so he will not be used when he could have been used to stop rally or if he is used and stops rally and big lead is preserved he may not be needed in ninth which is what probably would have happened last night although not having Smith available may disclude using Osuna early - one of many factors to be considered another is how good is opposing team at coming from behind ? who is at bat and on deck ? as well as many others

Lots of potential scenarios can be imagined and no one can predict future so you go with probabilities and I say stopping rally by using closer before ninth makes sense in some, not all, situations

But, alas , it is never done so you are right and I am wrong but I still do not see why never using ace reliever early is so fixed in managers strategy


It is like Japanese baseball - they always advance runner with sac bunt and over here you never use ace until ninth and that is just the way it is
 

Samranchoi

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I agree with closers being best reliever in tense scenarios which reinforces my idea of using them before ninth in a tense situation


Yes he may be needed in ninth but game could became lost before then and so he will not be used when he could have been used to stop rally or if he is used and stops rally and big lead is preserved he may not be needed in ninth


Lots of potential scenarios can be imagined and no one can predict future so you go with probabilities and I say stopping rally by using closer before ninth makes sense in some, not all, situations

It is a matter of understanding probabilities
Ok we have gone full circle. Last night, Gibbons managed his pitching staff correctly and saved his closer for the 9th inning and the Jays won with Osuna playing an important role in closing out the game. Gibbons managed the game like all managers would have and his team won. "What ifs" can be applied to so many things. In baseball, what was done last night was typical. No use in trying to change how to manage games. You have to think if it was the best way to use a #1 closer, more managers would do it. Obviously, they don't think what you are proposing is the best way to use their closer.
 

Zoot Allures

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Jan 23, 2017
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Ok we have gone full circle. Last night, Gibbons managed his pitching staff correctly and saved his closer for the 9th inning and the Jays won with Osuna playing an important role in closing out the game. Gibbons managed the game like all managers would have and his team won. "What ifs" can be applied to so many things. In baseball, what was done last night was typical. No use in trying to change how to manage games. You have to think if it was the best way to use a #1 closer, more managers would do it. Obviously, they don't think what you are proposing is the best way to use their closer.
Yup. I am just floating an idea on strategy and strategy mixed with slow pace of game makes baseball fun to watch and discuss
 
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