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Is global climate policy actually about global income redistribution ?

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Frankfooter

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Apr 10, 2015
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Since you and Fuji insist that we have to stick with the published papers, let's use the peer-reviewed graph that was recently published in Nature that shows annual temperature anomalies.
Oh yes, that Fyfe paper you keep lying about, the one you use to claim that climate change isn't happening and the IPCC projections aren't accurate, like your prediction on 2015's global temperature hitting 0.83ºC.

Michael Mann, one of the authors of the Fyfe paper:
Our study does NOT support the notion of a "pause" in global warming, only a *temporary slowdown*, which was due to natural factors, and has now ended.
Our recent work (http://www.nature.com/articles/srep19831), which you fail to cite, indicates that the record warmth we are now experiencing can only be explained by human-caused global warming.
https://www.facebook.com/MichaelMannScientist/posts/1040204106035791

Another look at yearly records.

 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
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"Not quite as warm"?

The month-over-month change is almost 0.2 C -- equivalent to the per-decade increases predicted by the IPCC.
Here, have a look at a comparison chart of El Nino years.




Yes, we are in the end of an El Nino, and temperatures are likely to have had the peak of El Nino's influence, so that means that when they go down and still hit global records for warmth then there will be no other explanation then AGW.

Even now, as you can clearly see from that chart, the only explanation that 2016's El Nino boosted temps are the highest ever by such a wide margin is AGW.
.
You are still a denying troll
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
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Even now, as you can clearly see from that chart, the only explanation that 2016's El Nino boosted temps are the highest ever by such a wide margin is AGW.
Nonsense.

Temperatures in the 21st century were stagnant prior to the El Nino. And prior to the NOAA and NASA monkeying around with the data, there wasn't a single month in the first five months of 2015 that was a record breaker.

Even the former vice-chair of the IPCC admits the warm temperatures produced by the super El Nino are not evidence of climate change.
 

fuji

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That level of warming you're talking about was solely for CO2. That does nothing to confirm the AGW hypothesis, which you don't understand (as you struggle to try to figure out whether water vapour feedback leads to warming or cooling).

Clicking your heels together three times and repeating the same fairy tale over and over isn't going to make the fairy tale come true.
In fact it totally confirms it, you are just in denial and it's getting boring.
 

fuji

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In fact, NASA's data showed 2014 was no warmer than 2005 or 2010 (the differences reported by NASA were significantly less than the margin of error). Temperatures went up in 2015 due to the super El Nino weather phenomenon.

Apart from the super El Nino (and we won't really know where things currently stand until the El Nino and possible La Nina trends have ended), temperatures in the 21st century have been stagnant.
The temperature is going to go up in a two steps forward, one step back fashion. You will always be blaming super El Ninos that will always be getting hotter than the previous one.

The 5 year running average in 2005 and 2010 was .63, the most recent one was .7, clearly refuting the denier prediction in the video that there would be cooling. And yes we should be looking at running averages, and those have been going up under year with the exception of 2008, 2005, 2000, 1993, 1990, and prior to 1984.

In fact the definition of climate is weather averaged over 30 years so we should be looking at nothing less than 30 year running averages, otherwise we are talking about weather, not climate.

AGW predicts warming over centuries. When you look at the prehistoric events where there was greenhouse warming triggered by CO2 the temperatures rose dramatically, and led to mass extinctions, but not in a straight line. There were long stretches of deviation from the overall warming trend.

This is why anybody sane regresses the numbers or at least uses a running average. The NASA data included a5 year running average but it should actually by a 30 year running average to fit the definition that anything less than 30 years is weather, rather than climate.

Your analysis of years in isolation not averaged over 30+ years is stupid to begin with.
 
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**Sophie**

Scientists believe this El Niño was stronger than the previous one. The fact of the matter is, time will surely tell, nobody can escape that.

They should be focusing their attention on the pollution in Asia and India, that is waaaay more important. Not CO2
 

fuji

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Scientists believe this El Niño was stronger than the previous one. The fact of the matter is, time will surely tell, nobody can escape that.

They should be focusing their attention on the pollution in Asia and India, that is waaaay more important. Not CO2
The way to avoid debating the weather is to look at thirty year moving averages. Then you don't have to worry about whether this el nino was bigger. You will then see the long term gradual warming more clearly.

AGW is adding a small fraction of s degree a year to the global temperature while the temperature naturally varies by many times that amount due to weather effects.

Most people accept that averaging 30 years is the way to talk about climate rather than weather.
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
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Your analysis of years in isolation not averaged over 30+ years is stupid to begin with.
Really?

The temperature trend in the late 20th century that showed a correlation between increasing man-made emissions and the Earth's temperature only ran for about 20 years. If we use your latest standard for falsification, doesn't that mean the AGW hypothesis was baseless to begin with?

Furthermore, in the Climategate emails, leading climate researcher Phil Jones said that if the temperature slowdown lasted for 15 years, there's a problem with the models. It actually ran longer than that.

But, hey, no problem. We'll forget how the whole AGW hypothesis got started and just arbitrarily change the time period for measuring the slowdown to 30 years. And if nothing significant has happened by that point, Fuji and his buddies can always change it again. :thumb:

The fact is there is no clear metric for falsification of the hypothesis. That's one of the problems.
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
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You will always be blaming super El Ninos that will always be getting hotter than the previous one.
The graph below recently ran in Nature, your favourite journal.

It wasn't created by me. And it clearly shows that temperatures in the 21st century have been stagnant.

 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
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The graph below recently ran in Nature, your favourite journal.

It wasn't created by me. And it clearly shows that temperatures in the 21st century have been stagnant
I'm glad you support the findings of this study.

Michael Mann, one of the authors of the Fyfe paper:
Our recent work (http://www.nature.com/articles/srep19831), which you fail to cite, indicates that the record warmth we are now experiencing can only be explained by human-caused global warming.

https://www.facebook.com/MichaelMannScientist/posts/1040204106035791

You are posting a chart from a study that confirms AGW.
I assume you are backing the findings of this study?
 

fuji

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Nonsense.

Your still trying to understand what the AGW hypothesis is. Have you figured out yet whether water vapour feedback has a warming or cooling effect? :biggrin1:
AGW- human caused global warming, now an experimentally verified fact.
 

fuji

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OK, looks like it's time for some basic definitions, 350 posts into the hundredth thread on climate change and it turns out that Moviefan doesn't even know what climate is.


http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/ccl/faqs.php

What is Climate?
Climate, sometimes understood as the "average weather,” is defined as the measurement of the mean and variability of relevant quantities of certain variables (such as temperature, precipitation or wind) over a period of time, ranging from months to thousands or millions of years.
The classical period is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system.
 

AK-47

Armed to the tits
Mar 6, 2009
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In the 6
In fact we have direct observation of the additional .2 watts per square meter per decade.

Meanwhile, please do show the 30 year moving averages and then repeat you asinine claim that they aren't increasing. See if you can pull it off without looking super kooky
The only one on this forum who consistently looks kooky is you, fuji.

Want me to start a thread with a poll on who's the biggest bullshitter on Terb??!
Guaranteed you would win in a landslide
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
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....it turns out that Moviefan doesn't even know what climate is.
That's quite a statement. But I don't think I saw an answer to my question.

Tell us, Fuji: Does water vapour feedback lead to warming or cooling?

If you ever figure this out, I'm looking forward to seeing how your answer compares with your previous posts. :thumb:

(And by the way, I'm not the one who keeps posting monthly temperature anomalies from the super El Nino weather patterns and trying to pass them off as evidence of "climate" change.)
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
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Not according to the recently published paper in Nature.
Once again, I'm glad you support the findings of this study.

Michael Mann, one of the authors of the Fyfe paper:
Our study does NOT support the notion of a "pause" in global warming, only a *temporary slowdown*, which was due to natural factors, and has now ended.
Our recent work (http://www.nature.com/articles/srep19831), which you fail to cite, indicates that the record warmth we are now experiencing can only be explained by human-caused global warming.
https://www.facebook.com/MichaelMannScientist/posts/1040204106035791


By posting this study and supporting its findings, you have confirmed that AGW is real and accounts for most of climate change we are experiencing.
 

FAST

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Mar 12, 2004
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The only one on this forum who consistently looks kooky is you, fuji.

Want me to start a thread with a poll on who's the biggest bullshitter on Terb??!
Guaranteed you would win in a landslide
Plus anybody who quotes Michael Mann as an expert on anything, and worships Al Gore, is in the same category.

FAST
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
98,538
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Plus anybody who quotes Michael Mann as an expert on anything, and worships Al Gore, is in the same category.

FAST
You are the guys who quote Tim Ball and Marc Morano, right?
Just want to establish who you think are credible.
 
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