what Fuji said.The fact that they didn't close their airspace would seem to be evidence against your theory. As would the video of the Russians spiriting the BUK back across the border. As would the cleanup team the Russians sent to the site to cover up the evidence.
I don't believe the Russians expected a civilian jet to be shot down, but I think they were reckless in giving the system to the rebels without proper training or full targeting radar. I think they do reckless things like that all the time in the Putinocracy of Russian Kleprocratic Republics.