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Coronavirus variants are testing the limits of what we once thought was safe in Canada
Explosion of variant cases elevates risk of COVID-19 exposure in everyday situations, experts say
The rapid spread of more contagious coronavirus variants across Canada is driving a devastating third wave in much of the country and increasing the level of risk in situations previously thought to be relatively safe from COVID-19.
Experts say the risk of exposure is higher in everyday situations and the margin of error is lower for what we can and can't do safely until more Canadians are vaccinated.
"The things that you've gotten away with previously, and that you've put into your mindset that were safe … it wasn't that they were safe, it's that you got lucky," said Erin Bromage, a biology professor and immunologist at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth who studies infectious diseases.
"That luck — it's like rolling dice."
Bromage said activities such as visiting a loved one, sharing a meal or working out in a gym might seem safe because public health restrictions may allow them, but are even riskier now than they were before.
The variants of concern not only appear to be more
transmissible and
potentially more deadly, but Bromage says they may also transmit for longer periods of time in infected individuals and bind to our cells more easily — providing more opportunities for infected people to spread the virus.
"If you're only transmitting for a few days out of an infection cycle, you can only have so many contacts during those days," he said. "But if that duration of shedding is now twice as long, you can have double the contacts and so therefore it moves more easily between people."
Linsey Marr, one of the
top aerosol scientists in the world and an expert on the airborne transmission of viruses at Virginia Tech, says it's possible variants may also be causing more virus particles in the exhaled air of infected individuals for longer.
"The virus is still transmitting the same way," she said. "What's different is likely that either the people who are infected are releasing more virus over a longer period of time or it's possible that it takes fewer of those viruses to make you sick."
The number of confirmed variant cases in Canada has skyrocketed in recent weeks, rising from about
2,000 a month ago to close to
17,000 this week and counting, with more than 90 per cent of those being the B117 variant first identified in the United Kingdom.
The P1 variant first discovered in Brazil is also on the rise in Canada, with cases
doubling in the past week to more than 1,000 — mostly in British Columbia, Ontario and Alberta.
And the B1351 variant first found in South Africa is also picking up steam, with
more than 150 cases identified in Quebec, more than 70 in
Ontario and more than 50 in
B.C. as of Thursday.
"The race between the vaccine and the variants is at a critical point," Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada's chief public health officer, told reporters Friday. "It is clear that we need stronger control to combat variants of concern that are driving rapid epidemic growth in many areas of the country."
Tam said in a
statement Thursday that serious illness can occur at any age and evidence indicates that variants of concern can be associated with
more severe illness and increased risk of death.
Younger Canadians are being impacted harder in the third wave as well, Tam said, with infection rates highest among those aged 20 to 39 and a rise in the number of hospitalizations and ICU admissions in those under 60.