TSX All Time High Today?
- Thread starter glamphotographer
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It's awesome! Now I just need my vaccine so I can start spending some of these gains!! LOL
The Fed in the states saw the slump the markets took when they announced the $1600 stimulus checks. All the big institutional investors stepped back since Friday and time stood still. At 2:00 PM today the fed announced that they may not hike interest rates till 2023. That cause the markets to surge. I am still expecting one of two scenarios. The markets will give us a big slump like we experienced in March of 2020 ( markets will go lower by 60% ) or we will get a series of small slumps ( 15- 20% ) There will be no more stimulus checks to bolster the American economy this year. There will be budget cut backs and tax increases in the future.
Over confidence is your enemy.
Over confidence is your enemy.
Preserve your capital for better times, we have not hit the worse of times yet. Trillions of stimulus was announced last Thursday and the markets went stagnant. I do not expect any new direct stimulus this year to the American public. Can you afford to be in 60% stock market slump, or even a 15-20% slump?
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The markets don't solely reflect on stimulus cheques. There are other factors to it, like ending the pandemic and travel and tourism industry, etc. Airlines start to overbook again who use a shit load of fuel so there's the oil industry too.
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Will the pandemic just disappear or will it re-appear in a mutated state. The mere mention of any outbreaks real or imagined will send the markets tumbling. Then there is the fear that has bee built up in peoples minds. I for one do not want to sit in a disease incubator with hundreds of other people with circulating virus. So I will not be flying anywhere soon. What about all the businesses that have been closed in the last year, how many bankruptcies will we see this year and the years to come. How many people that are retired or will retire in the next 10 years have seen their retirement income diminish. The governments have propped up the economies to the tune of trillions. There will be future increases in taxation to pay for all the spending that have taken place in the last 12 months. In the USA there is a eviction moratorium and mandatory mortgage forbearance, what happens where these safeties are lifted.
Going forward the next 6-12 months will be the most uncertain and will determine the path we will be on in the future. It will be 5 years before we start to see the start of better times. I am not saying that there will not be investment opportunities ahead, but in the next six months we will see what this upheaval has done to the world economically. I am going to hunker down and keep my head down. The best thing to do is preserve your capital for better times.
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Cash is always good. So is being cautious.
BUT this market looks to want to go higher. I would not sell it short. We may get to 5000 on the S&P. IF we get there, there could easily be a blow-off top to 6000.
Then ten years of bad returns. That is when you want to be in cash. Hopefully bonds may pay positive interest then too.
BUT this market looks to want to go higher. I would not sell it short. We may get to 5000 on the S&P. IF we get there, there could easily be a blow-off top to 6000.
Then ten years of bad returns. That is when you want to be in cash. Hopefully bonds may pay positive interest then too.
What if the banks went with negative interest rates. Where do people put their money? Invest in the stock market, buy gold, buy silver, buy bitcoin, buy real estate? High saving accounts that pay %0.25 interest rates?
Look at what just happened in the last few days, The new stimulus was signed into law last Thursday and the markets tanked. The big financial institutions stepped back and stopped buying. It was not until 2:00 PM yesterday afternoon that the markets turned positive, when the Fed announced that there should not be any increase in interest rates before 2023. This announcement is quite nebulous and was only made to give a fragile market some confidence.
Of course we are into bubble territory.
Watch some real live physical bubbles. Champagne, kids will be out soon blowing bubbles, or take a bubble bath with your favourite girl.
Generally, bubbles resist breaking and they can go a long way.
Bubbles are a very positive experience ....until they break.
It does not really matter what we think. The Market does not listen to us, IT just does what IT does.
TSX finished the day at an all-time high of 18,990.32. Still waiting for the crash of 2021.
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