Strategy going forward : Dangerous times............... Recall all the troops and only send out Recon patrols.

[Ceiling Cat]

In the past 6 to 8 weeks I have made a few trades, but only if I was 99.999% confident. Every time I bought in I was hoping that the second slump in the markets will not come at that time. I am still expecting a second March 4 style slump to lower the markets 50-75% from this point. This can happen at any time, but will we make it to the U.S. Presidential election or not, the likelihood that the slump will happen increases exponentially after the election. To be caught in that slump will wipe out a good portion of your portfolio, it is not a good thing to be a seller when nobody is buying. The American politicians are arguing how and when to pass the next U.S. Stimulus package. This will put some stability into the American economy, but I am not expecting the second round of stimulus to have as great an effect as the first one. Especially with the large unemployment numbers, evictions, big businesses reporting vastly lower profits and record breaking low GDP numbers.

I have sold off all stocks and almost 100% fully in cash. I do have a strategy to get a feel for the new conditions we are going into. I plan to set up a side account in my portfolio with $5k and trade in lots ( 100 shares ) to understand and get a feel for the new and changing environment we are entering into. Of course you can trade on paper, but when you have skin in the game you are more interested and tuned into the situation.

I hope my strategy has encouraged others to keep their investing skills up and evolve with the changing times. I invited anyone with alternative strategies to share. We live in unprecedented historic times.


Gentlemen, up your dividends.

 

[Spacealien2]

IRON CONDORRRRR

 

[jalimon]

Interesting post Ceiling Cat. I hope you will keep posting how it goes for you for the next 8-9 months. I am in a very similar situation as you. I took out 95% of what I had in the market. Now in a wait and see approach. No risk for me for now.

The situation is completely crazy for investing when you think about it. We are in a pandemic. No vaccine. No clue when an effective vaccine will come out. Big recession which would have been a major depression if our gouvernment had not pump so much money. Unemployment record. Entire sector like airlines, tourism, hotel, restaurant and all transport related could push even more millions out of work globally.

But the situation that worries me the most is commercial real estate. A continued push for work at home could completely crush it. Just imagine the catastrophe of having half of all major city downtown lease empty.

 

[Butler1000]

Interesting post Ceiling Cat. I hope you will keep posting how it goes for you for the next 8-9 months. I am in a very similar situation as you. I took out 95% of what I had in the market. Now in a wait and see approach. No risk for me for now.

The situation is completely crazy for investing when you think about it. We are in a pandemic. No vaccine. No clue when an effective vaccine will come out. Big recession which would have been a major depression if our gouvernment had not pump so much money. Unemployment record. Entire sector like airlines, tourism, hotel, restaurant and all transport related could push even more millions out of work globally.

But the situation that worries me the most is commercial real estate. A continued push for work at home could completely crush it. Just imagine the catastrophe of having half of all major city downtown lease empty.

This may put several upcoming buildings on Yonge in trouble. I had heard they were planning on adding "Business condos" in the mix of several of them. Some up to ten+floors. Losing those could be the difference in building(although I think they would just drop them and carry on in most cases) or at least cause a delay.

 

[waynec]

In the past 6 to 8 weeks I have made a few trades, but only if I was 99.999% confident. Every time I bought in I was hoping that the second slump in the markets will not come at that time. I am still expecting a second March 4 style slump to lower the markets 50-75% from this point. This can happen at any time, but will we make it to the U.S. Presidential election or not, the likelihood that the slump will happen increases exponentially after the election. To be caught in that slump will wipe out a good portion of your portfolio, it is not a good thing to be a seller when nobody is buying. The American politicians are arguing how and when to pass the next U.S. Stimulus package. This will put some stability into the American economy, but I am not expecting the second round of stimulus to have as great an effect as the first one. Especially with the large unemployment numbers, evictions, big businesses reporting vastly lower profits and record breaking low GDP numbers.

I have sold off all stocks and almost 100% fully in cash. I do have a strategy to get a feel for the new conditions we are going into. I plan to set up a side account in my portfolio with $5k and trade in lots ( 100 shares ) to understand and get a feel for the new and changing environment we are entering into. Of course you can trade on paper, but when you have skin in the game you are more interested and tuned into the situation.

I hope my strategy has encouraged others to keep their investing skills up and evolve with the changing times. I invited anyone with alternative strategies to share. We live in unprecedented historic times.


Gentlemen, up your dividends.

I appreciate your posts CAT. i too sold all stocks in my trading accounts. left all rrsps intact. if downturn happens, i will jump on it. if not, i will just sit on the sidelines and watch/learn.

 

[JohnnyWishbone]

I bought in on the way down and have sold a little since the rise...still have a good chunk of money in the market and an equal amount of cash ready. Appreciate the posts too.