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Silicon Valley Bank fails and rattles markets

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sprite09

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danmand said:
Yes, we are stuck somewhere in never never land between "nobody can pick the bottom" and "don't catch a falling knife".
I have quite a bit of cash. It is very tempting now to start nibbling on some of the trust units that pay 8 to 10%. and mostly ROC.
What do you think? Will the Feds continue increasing interest rates?
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the falling knife was likely last yr and that's when people should have kept buying

bond traders are expecting the fed to pivot later this yr

www.cmegroup.com

CME FedWatch Tool - CME Group

Count down to the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate hike with the CME FedWatch Tool, based on the Fed Funds target rate. View the tool.
www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com

click "probabilities" on the left-hand side
 
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Darts

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Survival of the fittest. Of course, this means the Swiss will now have less choice.
 
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danmand

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WyattEarp

WyattEarp

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Darts said:
Survival of the fittest. Of course, this means the Swiss will now have less choice.
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I think Credit Suisse is more of a global investment bank and private wealth management. I think most people in Switzerland will not notice any less choice.
 
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Anbarandy

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Phil C. McNasty said:
Yes, thats exactly what you do. You buy when its extremely low and nobody else wants to touch it.
Look at the 20-year pattern. It just got a $50 billion cash infusion.
The chances of it going back up to 20 CHF is reasonably good.
So if you buy at 2 CHF now, and wait 5 to 10 years, you could possibly make 10 times ROI.
You could turn $1 million into $10 million relatively quickly.
IMO the odds of them going bankrupt are low


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Anbarandy said:
Seriously?

It looks like a dog. It has not recovered from 2008; 2010; 2013-2016; 2017-2020.

Keeps dropping. No amount of Swiss Nat'l Bank intervention will get it anywhere 10x ROI, let 8x, 6x, 4x, 2x ....

This a "catch a falling knife" investment.
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Phil C. McNasty said:
Quote me in 5 years and lets see who's right
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I don't have to wait 5 years.

I'll quote you in 4 days.

Credit Suisse is a goner:

ubs takeover credit suisse - Search (bing.com)

I have absolutely no idea how some people ..... when there is a 15 or 20 year history of an unwinding, unhinged company reflected in it's share price .... believe that a company stock is a strong buy.
 
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Anbarandy

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WyattEarp said:
I think Credit Suisse is more of a global investment bank and private wealth management. I think most people in Switzerland will not notice any less choice.
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It's also a prime catch a falling knife choice here on TERB
 
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Phil C. McNasty

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Anbarandy said:
I don't have to wait 5 years.

I'll quote you in 4 days.

Credit Suisse is a goner:

ubs takeover credit suisse - Search (bing.com)

I have absolutely no idea how some people ..... when there is a 15 or 20 year history of an unwinding, unhinged company reflected in it's share price .... believe that a company stock is a strong buy.
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Its not a goner.
Check post #102 of this thread.

Its currently down 60% https://www.google.ca/search?as_q=c...ch=&as_occt=any&safe=images&as_filetype=&tbs=
 
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Anbarandy

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Phil C. McNasty said:
Its not a goner.
Check post #102 of this thread.

Its currently down 60% https://www.google.ca/search?as_q=c...ch=&as_occt=any&safe=images&as_filetype=&tbs=
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Ok.

Your $1million dollar 'catch a falling knife' investment folly is now worth $0.4million at the moment, 4 days later.

So employing your theory of financial alchemy which magically transforms a falling knife into a goldmine in a short time, NOW is the time to double, triple down and buy another million or so shares or should you wait for it to lose another 50% or 88% of it's value?
 
WyattEarp

WyattEarp

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Anbarandy said:
It's also a prime catch a falling knife choice here on TERB
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That's why I was cautious and said I don't like investing in banks/businesses that depend on the whims of the government as an investor.

You're subject to the vagaries of the central bank and the government. They tire of your enterprise or they don't like the people behind it and decide they're done with you. Then when the government regulators rolls the weak bank up into a healthy bank, they basically decide how much you win or lose.

Case and point........the Credit Suisse AT1 bondholders are being wiped out. However, the shareholders are receiving something from the UBS deal. The Swiss bank regulator says this should be expected by the nature of the AT1 bonds, but the European Union regulators state they would have handled this differently. So even if you play distressed penny stocks and penny bonds how do you know how the bank regulators will call it?

I'm not an expert on banking, but know a bit more than most. In these liquidity crises, some banks have decent balance sheets and need some money to calm the markets. Others with far less than spectacular balance sheets benefit greatly from extremely cheap government money. It's not hard to figure out that if someone lends you money at ridiculously low rates that you will be able to turn around invest it and make some profits hence building back equity.

That was the legitimate beef with the global 2008-2009 bank bailouts. If I recall, weren't some banks taking cheap emergency money lent from the government then turning around and investing the money in government treasuries. Not a bank operation that was exactly investing in and stimulating the weak economy.
 
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Phil C. McNasty

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Dec 27, 2010
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Anbarandy said:
Ok.

Your $1million dollar 'catch a falling knife' investment folly is now worth $0.4million at the moment, 4 days later.

So employing your theory of financial alchemy which magically transforms a falling knife into a goldmine in a short time, NOW is the time to double, triple down and buy another million or so shares or should you wait for it to lose another 50% or 88% of it's value?
Click to expand...
First of all, I never bought any CS stock.
Second of all, when investing in stocks you have to be patient and give it years instead of 4 days
 
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danmand

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Nov 28, 2003
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WyattEarp said:
That's why I was cautious and said I don't like investing in banks/businesses that depend on the whims of the government as an investor.

You're subject to the vagaries of the central bank and the government. They tire of your enterprise or they don't like the people behind it and decide they're done with you. Then when the government regulators rolls the weak bank up into a healthy bank, they basically decide how much you win or lose.

Case and point........the Credit Suisse A1 bondholders are being wiped out. However, the shareholders are receiving something from the UBS deal. The Swiss bank regulator says this should be expected by the nature of the A1 bonds, but the European Union regulators state they would have handled this differently. So even if you play distressed penny stocks and penny bonds how do you know how the bank regulators will call it?

I'm not an expert on banking, but know a bit more than most. In these liquidity crises, some banks have decent balance sheets and need some money to calm the markets. Others with far less than spectacular balance sheets benefit greatly from extremely cheap government money. It's not hard to figure out that if someone lends you money at ridiculously low rates that you will be able to turn around invest it and make some profits hence building back equity.

That was the legitimate beef with the global 2008-2009 bank bailouts. If I recall, weren't some banks taking cheap emergency money lent from the government then turning around and investing the money in government treasuries. Not a bank operation that was exactly investing in and stimulating the weak economy.
Click to expand...
It was quite unprecedented that the At1 bondholders was wiped out, while shareholders got some crumbs.
But the At1 bonds were created as bail in bonds after 2009.
I believe the European bank regulated have said they will have precedence over stock.
 
WyattEarp

WyattEarp

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danmand said:
It was quite unprecedented that the At1 bondholders was wiped out, while shareholders got some crumbs.
But the At1 bonds were created as bail in bonds after 2009.
I believe the European bank regulated have said they will have precedence over stock.
Click to expand...
I read the European bank regulators in a similar situation would not necessarily subordinate AT1 bondholders to stockholders in Reuters. Reuters did not cite a quote or an official statement. In fact, before I posted that here I double-checked the article. I went back and the article had been edited.

In any event, AT1 debt securities in other bank names dropped as a result of Credit Suisse.
 
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