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Shocking document: How the US planned the war and energy crisis in Europe

oil&gas

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15 SEPTEMBER 2022
MARKUS ANDERSSON

In what appears to be an exceptional internal leak from the think tank RAND Corporation, known among other things to have been behind the American strategy for foreign and defence policies during the Cold War, a detailed account is given of how the energy crisis in Europe has been planned by the United States.

The document, which dates from January, acknowledges that the aggressive foreign policy that was being pursued by Ukraine before the conflict would push Russia into having to take military action against the country. Its actual purpose, it contends, was to pressure Europe into adopting a wide range of sanctions against Russia, sanctions which had already been prepared.

The European Union's economy, it states, “will inevitably collapse” as a result of this, and its authors rejoice in the fact that, among other things, resources of up to $9 billion will flow back to the United States, and well-educated young people in Europe will be forced to emigrate.

The key objective described in the document is to divide Europe - especially Germany and Russia - and destroy the European economy by placing useful idiots in political positions in order to stop Russian energy supplies from reaching the continent.

RAND Corporation’s think tank, which has a huge work force of 1,850 employees and a budget of $350 million, has the official aim of “improving policies and decision-making through research and analysis”. It is primarily connected to the United States Department of Defence and is infamous for having been influential in the development of military and other strategies during the Cold War.

A document signed RAND, under the opening heading of “Weakening Germany, strengthening the U.S.”, suggests that there is an “urgent need” for an influx of resources from outside to maintain the overall American economy, but “especially the banking system”.

“Only European countries bound by EU and NATO commitments can provide us with these without significant military and political costs for us.”

According to RAND, the main obstacle to this ambition is the growing independence of Germany. Among other things, it points out that Brexit has given Germany greater independence and made it more difficult for the United States to influence the decisions of European governments.

A key objective that permeates this cynical strategy is, in particular, to destroy the cooperation between Germany and Russia, as well as France, which is seen as the greatest economic and political threat to the United States.

”If implemented, this scenario will eventually turn Europe into not only an economic, but also a political competitor to the United States.”, it declares.

The only way: “Draw both sides into war with Ukraine”

In order to crush this political threat, a strategic plan, primarily focused on destroying the German economy, is presented.

“Stopping Russian deliveries could create a systematic crisis that would be devastating for the German economy and indirectly for the European Union as a whole”, it states, and believes that the key is to draw the European countries into war.

“The only possible way to ensure that Germany rejects Russian energy supplies is to draw both sides into the military conflict in Ukraine. Our continued actions in this country will inevitably lead to a military response from Russia. Russia is clearly not going to leave to the massive Ukrainian army’s pressure on the Donetsk People’s Republic without a military response. This would make it possible to portray Russia as the aggressive party and then implement the entire package of sanctions, which has already been drawn up”.

Green parties will force Germany to “fall into the trap”

The green parties in Europe are described as being particularly easy to manipulate into running the errands of American imperialism.

“The prerequisite for Germany to fall into this trap is the dominant role of green parties and European ideologies. The German environmental movement is a highly dogmatic, if not fanatical, movement, which makes it quite easy to get them to ignore economic arguments”, it writes, citing the current foreign minister of Germany, Annalena Baerbock, and the climate minister, Robert Habeck, as examples of this type of politician.

“Personal characteristics and lack of professionalism make it possible to assume that it is impossible for them to recognise their own mistakes in time. I will therefore be sufficient to rapidly form a media image of Putin’s aggressive war – and make the Greens into ardent and tough supporters of sanctions – a ‘war party’. This will make it possible to impose the sanctions without any obstacles”.

Baerbock is, i.a., well known for declaring that she will continue the suspension of Russian gas even during the winter – regardless of what her constituents think about the matter and the consequences for the German population.

– We will stand with Ukraine, and this means that the sanctions will stay, also in winter time – even if it gets really tough for politicians, she said at a conference in Prague recently.

“Ideally – a complete halt of supplies”

The authors express a hope that the damage between Germany and Russia will be so great that it will make it impossible for the countries to re-establish normal relations later on.

“A reduction in Russian energy supplies – ideally, a complete halt of such supplies– would lead to disastrous outcomes for German industry. The need to divert significant amounts of Russian gas for winter heating will further exacerbate the shortages. Lockdowns in industrial enterprises would cause shortages of components and spare parts for manufacturing, a breakdown of logistics chains and, eventually, a domino effect”.

Ultimately, a total collapse of the economy in Europe is seen as both probable and desirable.

“Not only will it deliver a devastating blow to the German economy, the entire economy of the entire EU economy will inevitably collapse.”

It further points out that the benefits of US-based companies having less competition on the world market, logistical advantages and the outflow of capital from Europe, would mean that they would be able to contribute to the economy of the United States by an estimated 7-9 trillion dollars. In addition, it also emphasises the important effect of many well-educated and young Europeans being be forced to immigrate to the USA.

RAND denies originating the report

RAND Corporation issued a press release on Wednesday denying that the report originates from them. No comments are made regarding what parts of the report are false or what is accurate, apart from simply writing that the content is “bizarre” and that the document is “fake””.

 
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oil&gas

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Neither Germany or France were U.S. rivals. It is just that demise
of their export industry could benefit the U.S. Manufacturing
industry of the U.S. does have a significant advantage over
Europe in terms of energy and material cost. Without the
security of supply of low cost oil, gas and other commodities
from Russia a large part of Europe is going to disintegrate
and will be in no place to compete with the U.S. And who
cares about China. If not for its significant advantage
of low labour cost and low energy cost (through coal
burning) the U.S. can easily beat China in hi-tech exports.

The U.S. is not turning into the enemy of France and Germany.
They will remain allies. It is just like sometimes you have to
resort to backstabbing of your trusting friends or collaborators
for personal gains.
 

HungSowel

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Mar 3, 2017
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The US does not have a free trade deal with the EU yet, if the US were to backstab they would do it after the free trade agreement as it will facilitate the displacement of exports from France and Germany to other EU countries.
 

oil&gas

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Barring the conquest and democratisation of Russia as the
outcome of the Ukraine war or Europe is going to make nice
with Putin exports from France and Germany and much of the
rest of Europe will be displaced by the U.S. Even the world's
most advanced economy and most developed society will
disintegrate in a permanent energy crunch.
 

JohnLarue

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That's a pretty suspicious-looking document to be some kind of official working paper from RAND.
Fake RAND Report on 'Weakening Germany' | RAND


FOR RELEASE
Wednesday
September 14, 2022
A supposedly leaked RAND report about a bizarre U.S. conspiracy to “weaken Germany” is fake.

Genuine RAND research, analysis, and commentary on the war in Ukraine may be found at this page.

Given the potential origins of this fake document, we encourage you to explore this resource on the “firehose of falsehood” approach to propaganda and RAND's extensive research on “Truth Decay,” a phenomenon driven in part by the spread of disinformation.
So according to Rand the supposed internal documents is a fake
That said, all governments have analysts/ consultants examine a wider range of scenarios
ie the US Department of defense likely has high level scenario analysis for the invasion of every other country including Canada
I recall seeing a video about a declassified Canadian govt scenario of Canada invading the northern USA in the 1930s

Here is a RAND paper from their website
Overextending and Unbalancing Russia: Assessing the Impact of Cost-Imposing Options | RAND
a report that comprehensively examines nonviolent, cost-imposing options that the United States and its allies could pursue across economic, political, and military areas to stress—overextend and unbalance—Russia’s economy and armed forces and the regime's political standing at home and abroad.

People dreaming up scenarios and the potential costs , benefits for their country does not make it an official or even clandestine policy objective
 

Valcazar

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Exactly - RAND makes all kinds of policy papers all the time. And while they have less influence than they once had, they are still influential.
The paper LaRue linked to above was used to "prove" that the US provoked Russia.
I guess it wasn't enough, so now we have this new fake-looking one that is tailored with a lot more buzzwords to "prove" the US did it.


And I also agree a think tank pitching ideas and looking at scenarios is not proof that a policy happened. (It can be part of the evidence, sure, but on its own it is just a think tank dreaming up scenarios or exploring options.)
 
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Pleasure Hound

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If Otto Von Bismarck were still alive, I would blame him for this.....

I don't think that anyone else would have been intelligent enough to plan and execute such a strategy.....and get it right.....
 

JohnLarue

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Exactly - RAND makes all kinds of policy papers all the time. And while they have less influence than they once had, they are still influential.
The paper LaRue linked to above was used to "prove" that the US provoked Russia.
I guess it wasn't enough, so now we have this new fake-looking one that is tailored with a lot more buzzwords to "prove" the US did it.


And I also agree a think tank pitching ideas and looking at scenarios is not proof that a policy happened. (It can be part of the evidence, sure, but on its own it is just a think tank dreaming up scenarios or exploring options.)
just like how an internal report within Exxon Mobil, is not the "smoking gun" proving 'they knew" and most certainly not the smoking gun to prove the AGW hypothesis,
despite what some (not necessarily you) have claimed
 

squeezer

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What a bunch of nonsense and bullshit!

Sure, the Dems get in, omicron, vaccines and treatments are washing away the threat of Covid. BIden pulls out of Afghanistan and now decides it is a great idea to force inflation and higher gas prices by triggering Russia to attack it's neighbor. Brilliant idea considering mid terms are 2 years away.

NONSENSE AND BULLSHIT
 
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Frankfooter

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just like how an internal report within Exxon Mobil, is not the "smoking gun" proving 'they knew" and most certainly not the smoking gun to prove the AGW hypothesis,
despite what some (not necessarily you) have claimed
Lets add the Exxon report to the list of things you don't understand.
Like the role of IR and CO2 in the atmosphere and the difference between forcing and feedback effects.
 

oil&gas

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Apr 16, 2002
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Ghawar
If Otto Von Bismarck were still alive, I would blame him for this.....

I don't think that anyone else would have been intelligent enough to plan and execute such a strategy.....and get it right.....
I think the U.S. didn't have to plan and execute. It only has to
wait and see. Putin's aggression and Europe's wokeness and
climate plan underlying the crisis were a given. So far the U.S.
looks increasingly likely to emerge as one beneficiary of the
Ukraine war.
 
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mandrill

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I think the U.S. didn't have to plan and execute. It only has to
wait and see. Putin's aggression and Europe's wokeness and
climate plan underlying the crisis were a given. So far the U.S.
looks increasingly likely to emerge as one beneficiary of the
Ukraine war.
Except no one thinks that the Russian attempt at an oil blockade will last more than a few weeks, given the fact that it will fuck Russia's economy as well and the other fact that Putin's military aggression is so blatant and dangerous that Europe will shiver rather than do what he wants.
 

oil&gas

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It is in the interest of the U.S. to see Russia's oil and
gas industry end in devastation. In the near term rising
oil prices will hurt. But it won't be long before energy demand
of Europe ends in collapse leading to relief in global energy
prices. Canada could also redirect all of its energy export to
the U.S. Stepping up drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and the
Permian basin will also bring further relief in energy prices.

Russia's energy industry will be hit so hard any surplus
production might likely only meet the demand of China
and other Asian nations. That is fine with the U.S. So long
as China, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam along with its southern
neighbour Mexico can continue exporting low price goods for
Walmart at low energy cost the manufacturing industry
of the U.S. would also be given a new life with the demise
of France and Germany.

Devastation of Russia's oil and gas industry will also
become a blessing of Big Oil in the U.S. Putin (or Putin II)
will eventually have to make nice with the U.S. to bring
back ExxonMobil and Haliburton to rescue their dying
oil fields from permanent decline which the WH will
happily oblige. It is the pursuit of 'profit' not 'freedom'
that made the U.S. the world's greatest nation.
 

Frankfooter

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It is in the interest of the U.S. to see Russia's oil and
gas industry end in devastation. In the near term rising
oil prices will hurt.
Not at all, short term the EU needs Russian gas until transition is completed.
Then they won't need Russian oil.
 
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