Russell Brand Goes Off On John Heilemann Of MSNBC...Classic Exposure

[Valcazar]

No Ukraine will never be a member of NATO. I just dont see that happening. The only way this war stops is if there are guarantees that Ukraine wont join NATO. Your point about Ukraine wanting guarantees is reasonable, but I a not sure what the solution is. Russia will never agree to NATO. Outside of NATO I dont know what other options exist.

The problem is that as long as Russia feels its only option is to control Ukraine, a settlement is difficult.
If Russia wins completely, then it isn't an issue. They either annex the country or set up a true puppet regime.

Russia probably would accept a set up where Ukraine is more or less independent, but Russia has a veto over it's foreign policy.
At this point, though, that would be very hard to get Ukraine to accept.

Any version in which there is any part of Ukraine that can claim independence is going to require a security guarantee unless Ukraine gives up completely.

It is just too existentially dangerous for Ukraine to agree to anything that doesn't give them some hope of deterring Russia the next time Russia decides military force is the solution.

Russia accepts NATO membership only if it thinks it has no way to stop it - then maybe it takes some land for it.

Russia agreeing to any other security guarantee that has teeth is pretty much the same thing.

So long as this regime thinks Ukraine having the ability to resist it or to be the "danger of a good example" it will not want to accept any agreement that doesn't let it invade or interfere with Ukraine again whenever it feels it is necessary.

Why is that a disagreement with Chomsky? I dont think Russia is blocking Ukraine form joining EU or it is even part of Russia's agenda. NATO yes. EU no. Or are you conflating EU and NATO?

The very clip you posted has Chomsky saying he doesn't think Russia will allow Ukraine to join the EU.

Agreement on measures to ensure the security of The Russian Federation and member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization

mid.ru

Here are the Russian demands. Where in that are they saying anything about EU?

They aren't in that.
They invaded in 2014 over it, though. And said repeatedly that they oppose it. And that was just "move closer to the orbit and maybe qualify for membership in 2030 or even later".
Yes, last year, when the war started to go badly they just said they don't care about it but would have to review all the security implications, but that is nice and vague.

Russia does not want Ukraine joining the EU.

 

[krealtarron]

The problem is that as long as Russia feels its only option is to control Ukraine, a settlement is difficult.
If Russia wins completely, then it isn't an issue. They either annex the country or set up a true puppet regime.

Russia probably would accept a set up where Ukraine is more or less independent, but Russia has a veto over it's foreign policy.
At this point, though, that would be very hard to get Ukraine to accept.

Any version in which there is any part of Ukraine that can claim independence is going to require a security guarantee unless Ukraine gives up completely.

It is just too existentially dangerous for Ukraine to agree to anything that doesn't give them some hope of deterring Russia the next time Russia decides military force is the solution.

Russia accepts NATO membership only if it thinks it has no way to stop it - then maybe it takes some land for it.

Russia agreeing to any other security guarantee that has teeth is pretty much the same thing.

So long as this regime thinks Ukraine having the ability to resist it or to be the "danger of a good example" it will not want to accept any agreement that doesn't let it invade or interfere with Ukraine again whenever it feels it is necessary.

All good points. This is why I also keep saying that this war is bad for Ukraine more than it is for Russia. They truly are in a difficult spot and the only way I see this ending is through a long protracted war that goes on for several years. Its not going to end in 2023. I wont be surprised if this goes on for another 5 years with low grade, stalemated violence. Eventually war fatigue will set in and something will transpire that is a compromise.

 

[Valcazar]

All good points. This is why I also keep saying that this war is bad for Ukraine more than it is for Russia. They truly are in a difficult spot and the only way I see this ending is through a long protracted war that goes on for several years. Its not going to end in 2023. I wont be surprised if this goes on for another 5 years with low grade, stalemated violence. Eventually war fatigue will set in and something will transpire that is a compromise.

I agree the war isn't going to end quickly unless something unexpected happens.

It's why all these calls for ceasefires and what not are so ludicrous.

Negotiation happens when the belligerents think negotiation is going to get them a better deal than further fighting.
Neither side is anywhere near that and they may not be there for years.

 

[Frankfooter]

All good points. This is why I also keep saying that this war is bad for Ukraine more than it is for Russia. They truly are in a difficult spot and the only way I see this ending is through a long protracted war that goes on for several years. Its not going to end in 2023. I wont be surprised if this goes on for another 5 years with low grade, stalemated violence. Eventually war fatigue will set in and something will transpire that is a compromise.

The only way its sustainable for Russia is if Xi starts supporting them less covertly.
Ukraine will eventually run out of western ammunition but we'll see how long that takes.

Its still mud season, the latest rounds of tanks and ammunition for Ukraine are just arriving while Russia is down to using tanks from the 1950's.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1639247973111697411

 

[krealtarron]

The only way its sustainable for Russia is if Xi starts supporting them less covertly.
Ukraine will eventually run out of western ammunition but we'll see how long that takes.

Its still mud season, the latest rounds of tanks and ammunition for Ukraine are just arriving while Russia is down to using tanks from the 1950's.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1639247973111697411

None of the actual news in MSM regarding what Russia is losing or Ukraine is gaining is true. It depends on which news outlet you use. Logistics and manpower are the single most important thing and Russia has that in more numbers than Ukraine. Maybe Ukraine will use costlier ammunition from the west against old tanks which is a waste? Idk.

 

[squeezer]

None of the actual news in MSM regarding what Russia is losing or Ukraine is gaining is true. It depends on which news outlet you use. Logistics and manpower are the single most important thing and Russia has that in more numbers than Ukraine. Maybe Ukraine will use costlier ammunition from the west against old tanks which is a waste? Idk.

So only Russian news and information are correct?

 

[krealtarron]

So only Russian news and information are correct?

No they cant be trusted either. They will say stuff that is pro-Russia. Western media will say stuff that is pro-Ukraine. That is why we dont see any agreement on "losses". Everyone has an "estimate". No one actually knows.

 

[krealtarron]

I agree the war isn't going to end quickly unless something unexpected happens.

It's why all these calls for ceasefires and what not are so ludicrous.

Negotiation happens when the belligerents think negotiation is going to get them a better deal than further fighting.
Neither side is anywhere near that and they may not be there for years.

Sure, but we should not stop calling for a ceasefire or negotiations. We cant just say "Oh the war still needs to grind on for another 5 years. Its too early for a ceasefire", while people are dying.

 

[Frankfooter]

Sure, but we should not stop calling for a ceasefire or negotiations. We cant just say "Oh the war still needs to grind on for another 5 years. Its too early for a ceasefire", while people are dying.

If Ukraine calls for a ceasefire they lose 1/5 of their country.

 

[krealtarron]

If Ukraine calls for a ceasefire they lose 1/5 of their country.

You cant be sure of that unless you negotiate.

 

[Frankfooter]

You cant be sure of that unless you negotiate.

How does that work?
Does Zelensky say 'we'll stop defending ourselves if you give us back Donbas and maybe Crimea?'

 

[Valcazar]

Sure, but we should not stop calling for a ceasefire or negotiations. We cant just say "Oh the war still needs to grind on for another 5 years. Its too early for a ceasefire", while people are dying.

People are negotiating all the time and seeing what lines of communication can and cannot be kept open.
That's never stopped.

It's the idiots just demanding a ceasefire on whatever random terms that are being ridiculous and playacting at moral superiority.
You have people saying the US should "force" Ukraine to accept specific terms.
Or people who just say "they should have a ceasefire because war is bad" as if this is some kind of insight and not the equivalent of saying "puppies are cute".

Yes, if both sides agreed they shouldn't be fighting then they wouldn't be fighting. Good job, have a fucking cookie.
One of the reasons people say initiating a war is bad is because once you have, it is very fucking hard to get it to stop.

 

[krealtarron]

People are negotiating all the time and seeing what lines of communication can and cannot be kept open.
That's never stopped.

It's the idiots just demanding a ceasefire on whatever random terms that are being ridiculous and playacting at moral superiority.
You have people saying the US should "force" Ukraine to accept specific terms.
Or people who just say "they should have a ceasefire because war is bad" as if this is some kind of insight and not the equivalent of saying "puppies are cute".

Yes, if both sides agreed they shouldn't be fighting then they wouldn't be fighting. Good job, have a fucking cookie.
One of the reasons people say initiating a war is bad is because once you have, it is very fucking hard to get it to stop.

I think Putin said after Xi's visit that he was open to talks. Yet to see any response from Ukraine or the west.

 

[toguy5252]

It absolutely is. Unless you are being naive, any country of the stature of US, Russia or China will definitely consider that a threat. We see that even with China in the South China sea. Interestingly the country that all these countries have a problem with, is the United States. And interestingly all these conflicts exist, right outside these countries borders and not anywhere near US international borders. Think about that for a second.

Is every problem in the world the fault of the US?

I think Putin said after Xi's visit that he was open to talks. Yet to see any response from Ukraine or the west.

Of course he is open to talks. As long as they result in him staying in Crimea and Donbask etc.

 

[krealtarron]

Is every problem in the world the fault of the US?

May be.

 

[toguy5252]

May be.

LOL.

 

[Valcazar]

I think Putin said after Xi's visit that he was open to talks. Yet to see any response from Ukraine or the west.

Zelensky immediately said he was open to a negotiation that took Ukraine's interests seriously.

He has since followed up with pointing out that he did not receive an offer from China to mediate, did not receive an offer to meet, and got no response from a request to meet with Xi.
So it doesn't look promising from the front of Xi was doing anything than trying to shore up his image.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1639578707869290497

The Chinese "plan" is vague talking points at this stage - and that's fine - you don't lay out a fully defined "this is what has to happen" as a prelude to negotiation and also no one will take you seriously if you say you want to mediate and then say exactly what the result has to be.

But if we don't see any follow up from China, then I wouldn't hang my hat on it.

(Hopefully, if they are serious, China is at least keeping diplomatic overtures open to both sides on some level to see if an opening for real negotiation happens later.)