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Current estimates say 50% of population has natural Covid immunity

Phil C. McNasty

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Dec 27, 2010
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So this is a US article, but I'm assuming Canadian numbers are similar.
This is from NIH: National Institutes of Health (NIH) | Turning Discovery Into Health

Its from last month, so numbers are probably slightly higher by now


I will say that — trusting estimates that perhaps roughly 50% of the population now has some degree of natural immunity — we should probably expect that pretty soon we will begin to see longer-term resistance to disproportionately bad outcomes from this disease. At least, I should hope this is true. Vaccination may be a short- to medium-term solution when this is all said and done, but natural immunity will hopefully persist and help prevent more severe outcomes (and, according to some recent research, maybe a significant percentage of symptomatic cases) in the longer run also.

My hope is that Delta is the final really nasty wave we see of this pathogen. Probably I’m wrong, and probably it’s wishful thinking, but given the growth in overall infection/recovery rates + vaccination it all has to add up to more community resistance to the disease going forward
 
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jcpro

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I can very easily accept the 50% estimate. The conservative estimates from last spring put that rate at at least 1/3 of the entire population.
 

lomotil

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Oblivion
So this is a US article, but I'm assuming Canadian numbers are similar.
This is from NIH: National Institutes of Health (NIH) | Turning Discovery Into Health

Its from last month, so numbers are probably slightly higher by now

The pandemic still rages globally and the USA is only a little over 5% of the world’s population. There is still much potential for further more contagious and more virulent strains which can develop anywhere on the planet. The delta variant is already significantly different than the original SARS-CoV-2 detected in Wuhan, with break through infections possibly in the double vaccinated requiring hospitalization although at a much lower percentage than the non vaccinated.

Much is uncertain including the effect of mRNA vaccines on those with the so called “natural immunity “. Overall the vaccine effort appears to be having a positive effect and the pandemic is cresting but I think there is still more turbulence and waves on the way for a while yet.
 
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benstt

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Jan 20, 2004
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So this is a US article, but I'm assuming Canadian numbers are similar.
Given the Canadian studies showed the infections were so low up to April (2.6%), and we've had masking, distancing and massive vaccination uptake since then, 50% doesn't sound right for Canada.


Overall, 3.6%, or fewer than 1 in 25 Canadians, had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in their blood from a previous infection or vaccination, which may indicate some degree of protection against future infection from SARS-CoV-2. About 2.6% of Canadians had antibodies due to a past infection, while about 1% of Canadians had antibodies due to a vaccination, reflecting the fact that vaccination was not widespread during the survey period.
 

Phil C. McNasty

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Dec 27, 2010
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Given the Canadian studies showed the infections were so low up to April (2.6%), and we've had masking, distancing and massive vaccination uptake since then, 50% doesn't sound right for Canada.


Overall, 3.6%, or fewer than 1 in 25 Canadians, had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in their blood from a previous infection or vaccination, which may indicate some degree of protection against future infection from SARS-CoV-2. About 2.6% of Canadians had antibodies due to a past infection, while about 1% of Canadians had antibodies due to a vaccination, reflecting the fact that vaccination was not widespread during the survey period.
I dont know about the rest of Canada (since we are so sparsely populated), but I can easily accept that 50% figure for Toronto. I wouldnt be surprised if its higher (around 60% or so)
 

jcpro

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People accepting beliefs as fact in the absence of evidence is a big thing here.
More secrecy and misdirection is not going to make things any better.

 

Rako3

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Jan 24, 2006
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So this is a US article, but I'm assuming Canadian numbers are similar.
This is from NIH: National Institutes of Health (NIH) | Turning Discovery Into Health

Its from last month, so numbers are probably slightly higher by now

"Natural Immunity" makes it sound like some people have super-immune systems and have nothing to fear. What it really means is people get Covid, and (roll the dice) survive or die.

Sure, if everyone ignored the pandemic and got covid, a large segment would be unaffected -- minor symptoms, shaken off in a few days. Hooray! But a huge number of people would suffer greatly, be hospitalized, get long-Covid, and/or would die. The ones who survived could dance in the street and say ha ha ha, that was nothing! And the dead would...well, be dead. That's how pandemics were handled in medieval times. Smallpox was no big deal to the folks who survived it.

Having vaccines that can prevent that illness is wonderful, and saves countless lives. Spreading silly rumors like it changes your DNA or has microchips in it or makes your balls turn into grapefruits, that's just sinful. It's like reassuring people that cigarettes are healthy for you, that wearing seat belts is pointless, that five-out-of-six people who play Russian Roulette don't have anything to worry about.

So STOP IT.
 

Phil C. McNasty

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Sure, opinionate all you want. Some folks have the opinion that the earth is flat.

But opinions, even a huge stack of them, don't balance the scales of true scientific studies
Read the scientific studies I posted above
 

Rako3

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Jan 24, 2006
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Not true. Read this: https://archive.vn/ua9UF#selection-4295.130-4307.443

And please do your research before you spout bullshit
Here's what your article says: "Only around 10% of Americans have had confirmed positive Covid tests, but four to six times as many have likely had the infection. " In other words, exactly as I said -- people have had the infection. They lived or died. Maybe the percentages of people who die from the disease are less, but millions have still died.

There is no "natural immunity" without contracting the disease. Which means you suggest the best path forward is for EVERYONE to get it, don't worry about it, and get it over with.

With vaccines available, those who choose to opt out of the potential bloodbath can -- so I suppose that might indeed be a good path forward. Let everyone who wants to dodge the disease get vaccinated, and then give covid viruses to everyone. The pandemic will be over in a month.

And spare me the sermon about doing the research.
 

Phil C. McNasty

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Dec 27, 2010
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Here's what your article says: "Only around 10% of Americans have had confirmed positive Covid tests, but four to six times as many have likely had the infection. " In other words, exactly as I said -- people have had the infection. They lived or died. Maybe the percentages of people who die from the disease are less, but millions have still died.

There is no "natural immunity" without contracting the disease. Which means you suggest the best path forward is for EVERYONE to get it, don't worry about it, and get it over with
I never said that. I said allow vaccine passports for natural antibodies as well, not just vaccines (like Italy has done)
 

basketcase

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Dec 29, 2005
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I never said that. I said allow vaccine passports for natural antibodies as well, not just vaccines (like Italy has done)
How do you want to run this when studies show previously infected people have hugely varied antibody levels? Add in the studies that have shown that covid survivors have much better immunity if they also get vaccinated then there is no reasonable justification for your 'thoughts'.
 

Phil C. McNasty

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Dec 27, 2010
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How do you want to run this when studies show previously infected people have hugely varied antibody levels? Add in the studies that have shown that covid survivors have much better immunity if they also get vaccinated then there is no reasonable justification for your 'thoughts'.
You didn't read the link, did you??

 

basketcase

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Dec 29, 2005
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You didn't read the link, did you??

Did you? It's an op/ed, not a study and it is based on assumption of the infection rate, not actual tests.

More importantly, the studies that keep getting quoted about natural immunity say that the gained immunity is quite varied but it is quite improved by at least 1 vaccination.