Blue Jays 2024

[maurice93]

It was mentioned above that the Jays are a small market team. That is clearly an erroneous statement. They have a top 8 payroll in 23, 24 (pre deadline), and will probably have it again in 2025. Even if they clearly have a budget as part of a public company.

They have some of the top revenues in the league. Probably top 5. Strong attendance, even when they stink. Most importantly is the TV revenues they generate for Rogers parent, as they have by far the largest local TV audience in baseball. As TV revenues from sports are monetized more than ever is significant.

Is it the most attractive market for FA's to want to go to. No, but they have attracted some big names who had success on the front end of their deals since 2020. Two pitchers who were runnerups for the CY. One fielder who made 2 all star teams. Ryu, Gausman, Springer. They have been able to help themselves in FA(although exposed themselves at the back end). They have also hurt themsevles in 23/24 by spending money they they hadin the wrong places.

We didn't get Ohtani... we won't get Soto. But there will be opportunity to get some bats and relievers to help in 2025. With 40 million or so to spend (my estimate). They should have decent depth to fill in spots 8-13 on the roster with minimum level players. But they need to add two bats to the top 7, add a starter, and at least one good reliever. They will probably need to trade for a cost controlled player, if they want to get it all with 40 million or so.

Will it be enough? Lots of holes to fill. It could work, but it may not-- see teams like Cleveland and Milwaukee who expected to be middling in 2024.
Personally I would have leaned to a rebuild.

 

[onomatopoeia]

A note regarding the Jays Budget. One of the things the Jays achieved at the trade deadline was that they got under the luxury tax line (barely). ...

I discussed this in post #1,307. Even a single dollar under the Luxury Tax threshold would have a huge impact, specifically because the Jays paid Luxury Tax in 2023, and the penalties are more severe for consecutive season offenders.

 

[onomatopoeia]

It was mentioned above that the Jays are a small market team. That is clearly an erroneous statement.

I called them a small market team because that's how they are perceived by US TV networks and by American potential free agents. Playing in Canada reduces their US media profile, and subsequently their endorsement income potential, plus they'd need to leave their handguns behind during the season.

It's even worse with NBA players, since many of them would have close friends or entourage members who are not permitted to cross the border!

 

[onomatopoeia]

Then they should probably trade Chris Bassitt and George Springer. So that they can keep Guerrero.

Ridding themselves of Springer's remaining two guaranteed years at $24 Million+ would certainly benefit the Blue Jays in both the short and long terms. What MLB General Manager would want to do that????

Bassitt has one year left at $22 Million. He'll be 36 during the 2025 season. If they had moved him at the end of June, when his ERA was 3.24, they could have received value in return. At the moment, he's essentially worthless, but not a millstone like Springer. $22 Million is WAAAY too much to pay to acquire a guy with 0.3 WAR this season, while giving away an asset of some value.

Bassitt has stretches where he's brilliant, but not recently. His main appeal is as an innings eater, and the Jays should probably keep him for at least part of next season, for that reason alone. Most of the rotation help at the Minor League level can't or won't be expected to go more than 4-5 innings per start, lest they, too require Tommy John surgery.

Ideally Chris willhave one of his hot stretches around the same time that next year's team is a write off for post season participation, (except for those with blind faith).

There will be teams who will want him before next year's trade deadline, but they won't want to pay all of his remaining salary, AND part with some talent. It will be one or the other, but not both.

 

[Toronto Passions]

A note regarding the Jays Budget. One of the things the Jays achieved at the trade deadline was that they got under the luxury tax line (barely). Not that this was some master class task by Atkins - it was just a matter of trading pending FA's in a failed season.

This is relevant going into 2025, since when they go over the luxury tax line in 2025 (which they will need to do to re-tool), this will reduce their luxury tax rate by 30% (it will be 20% instead of 50%). It may also help with draft pick comp if they lose a key FA after 2025, as they would not be a repeater during 2024. But the most relevant part of course is the luxury tax.

The luxury tax rate rules work as follows:
Year 1 - 20% over line (Jays hit this in 2023, and paid about $5M in tax)
Year 2 Repeater - 30%, (Jays would have hit this in 2024 if they did not suck)
Year 3 Repeater - 50%

So for 2025, they can reset back to 20%. This might save the team 5 to 10 million -- enough to get a decent reliever (if they sign the right one).

Rogers is a humungous Canadian corporation that somehow purchased the Blue Jays from Interbrew for peanuts on the dollar.. I hope they pay luxury a tax and I hope they pay it well….

Philip

 

[onomatopoeia]

Rogers is a humungous Canadian corporation that somehow purchased the Blue Jays from Interbrew for peanuts on the dollar.. I hope they pay luxury a tax and I hope they pay it well….

Philip

Rogers is not the right kind of ownership for a team with Championship aspirations. Championships are usually won when the ownership cares more about winning than anything else, and the big decisions are made by a single individual, accountable to themselves and their investment partners. They don't always succeed, but the focus is ALWAYS on winning at any cost. They already have enough money, but not enough toys. An Arab Sheikh who buys original Vincent Van Gogh paintings to hang in his bathroom makes a good team owner. A committee focused on earning dividends for shareholders does not.

When Toyota had a Factory Team in Formula 1, (2002-09), they never won a race, from 140 entered. No one person was in charge making the decisions; it was always a committee consensus, which means a compromise.

Mark Cuban became a Billionaire in the original 1990's 'dot com boom'. In 2000, he bought a majority stake in the Dallas Mavericks for $285 Million, and he finally won an NBA Championship in 2011. One of the things he did was to give the home team's locker room every imaginable luxury. This went a long way in acquiring free agent talent.

The Baltimore Orioles are now owned by David Rubenstein , one of the World's most wealthy individuals*. He's also Team President/ CEO, and a Baltimore native.

*He's co-founder and co-chairman of The Carlyle Group. To certain conspiracy theorists, The Carlyle Group are 'the true Illuminati'. They literally have their finger in almost every pie, everywhere, and when they tell a World leader to jump, that leader says 'How high, sirs?'. Justin Trudeau? If he was even invited to one of their meetings, he'd be expected to buss the tables after the meal.

 

[Toronto Passions]

The Baltimore Orioles are now owned by David Rubenstein , one of the World's most wealthy individuals*. He's also Team President/ CEO, and a Baltimore native.

*He's co-founder and co-chairman of The Carlyle Group. To certain conspiracy theorists, The Carlyle Group are 'the true Illuminati'. They literally have their finger in almost every pie, everywhere, and when they tell a World leader to jump, that leader says 'How high, sirs?'. Justin Trudeau? If he was even invited to one of their meetings, he'd be expected to buss the tables after the meal.

Reminds me of the movie Fahrenheit 911 with George Bush senior on the Board of Directors for the Carlyle Group.

I think the Baltimore Orioles have such a cool history. Deep rooted generation after generation of support. Started in the 1800s as the original Milwaukee Brewers, then became the St. Louis Browns for 50 years and then moved to Baltimore in the 50s. We can’t even comprehend the level of support and generations of families and loyalty to these franchises. The Blue Jays since 1977 seems like a Pop-tart in comparison.

Philip

 

[Big Rig]

Rogers is not the right kind of ownership for a team with Championship aspirations. Championships are usually won when the ownership cares more about winning than anything else, and the big decisions are made by a single individual, accountable to themselves and their investment partners. They don't always succeed, but the focus is ALWAYS on winning at any cost. They already have enough money, but not enough toys. An Arab Sheikh who buys original Vincent Van Gogh paintings to hang in his bathroom makes a good team owner. A committee focused on earning dividends for shareholders does not.

When Toyota had a Factory Team in Formula 1, (2002-09), they never won a race, from 140 entered. No one person was in charge making the decisions; it was always a committee consensus, which means a compromise.

Mark Cuban became a Billionaire in the original 1990's 'dot com boom'. In 2000, he bought a majority stake in the Dallas Mavericks for $285 Million, and he finally won an NBA Championship in 2011. One of the things he did was to give the home team's locker room every imaginable luxury. This went a long way in acquiring free agent talent.

The Baltimore Orioles are now owned by David Rubenstein , one of the World's most wealthy individuals*. He's also Team President/ CEO, and a Baltimore native.

*He's co-founder and co-chairman of The Carlyle Group. To certain conspiracy theorists, The Carlyle Group are 'the true Illuminati'. They literally have their finger in almost every pie, everywhere, and when they tell a World leader to jump, that leader says 'How high, sirs?'. Justin Trudeau? If he was even invited to one of their meetings, he'd be expected to buss the tables after the meal.

Carlyle, founded by Rubenstein, is a private equity firm with $293 billion of assets under management and Rubensteins thoughts are paraphrased in the movie "Margin Call" which is a term for when an investor must increase the securities or other assets used as collateral for a loan when their value falls below a certain threshold. It is a film about the 2008 financial collapse

His thoughts on the 2008 financial collapse -

"Right now we're operating as if the music's not going to stop playing and the music is going to stop. I am more concerned about this than any other issue".

"But once this period is over, once the debt on the books of the banks is sold and new lending starts, I think you'll see the private equity industry coming back in what I call the Platinum Age – better than it's ever been before. I do think that the private equity industry has a great future and that the greatest period for private equity is probably ahead of us."

Look how prescient his thoughts are. They made a movie based on his thoughts, IMHO . Jeremy Irons was playing the role of Rubenstein.
It is of no surprise his ownership has made Baltimore a contender.

His leadership and acumen are what the Jays need.

This is a leadership we do not have under Rogers and will not have for the forseeable future

This seasons collapse demonstates the Jays lack of acumen and their deadline trades mean they will continue to pursue a WC which means they will continue to build a pretender, not a contender , as they have for the last 20 years

 

[Insidious Von]

So the Baltimore Orioles are owned by a carpetbagger, good to know. Private Equity exploits the economy, not help it grow.

 

[mitchell76]

Blue Jays now 58-66!!

 

[tml]

Ridding themselves of Springer's remaining two guaranteed years at $24 Million+ would certainly benefit the Blue Jays in both the short and long terms. What MLB General Manager would want to do that????

This reminds me of 2011 when Alex Anthopoulos traded Vernon Wells and his 4 years remaining at $86 million to The Angels. Absolutely NOBODY thought it was possible to find a buyer for Wells, but AA did it.

 

[tml]

View attachment 351745

Blue Jays now 58-66!!

Even our offence couldn't screw up this one.

 

[tml]

When I, or others, get frustrated with Rogers I just think back to the days of Interbrew SA. Then, I fall on my knees and thank the Lord for Ted Rogers. Poor Gord Ash.

 

[Toronto Passions]

Who would take Springer's contract.

Maybe some Astros sentimental value will take him on? Especially after a possible free agent signing departure of Alex Bregman? *** my wishful thinking ….That Springer contract is a real handcuff. I wish that wasn’t an issue. Maybe he could be the teams only veteran in 2025 and 2026 and bat sixth in the order.

They should be extending Guerrero and giving him 10 years… and also signing a big stud real cleanup hitter, prepping Bo Bichette as the new lead off hitter and extend him by three years as well right now. Grab a real stud bullpen arm……. trade Chris Bassitt if you have to…… and then just let the chips fall where they may.

As i mentioned, I have zero sympathy for Rogers and the budget they need to work with. They should be going big and they should be going hard and marketing the hell out of it every step of the way. Rogers needs to be making power moves!

Philip

 

[Toronto Passions]

….. re-assign John Schneider, hire John Gibbons as your new manager…. his third tenure with the club ala Billy Martin style.

I wish I was the GM because in my mind this team I am describing, wins 100 games lol.

Philip

 

[roddermac]

Maybe some Astros sentimental value will take him on? Especially after a possible free agent signing departure of Alex Bregman? *** my wishful thinking ….That Springer contract is a real handcuff. I wish that wasn’t an issue. Maybe he could be the teams only veteran in 2025 and 2026 and bat sixth in the order.

They should be extending Guerrero and giving him 10 years… and also signing a big stud real cleanup hitter, prepping Bo Bichette as the new lead off hitter and extend him by three years as well right now. Grab a real stud bullpen arm……. trade Chris Bassitt if you have to…… and then just let the chips fall where they may.

As i mentioned, I have zero sympathy for Rogers and the budget they need to work with. They should be going big and they should be going hard and marketing the hell out of it every step of the way. Rogers needs to be making power moves!

Philip

Rogers gave Shatkins a blank check and they spent like a drunken at the nudy bar. They had the 7th highest payroll in MLB this season and are paying in American dollars. It's not their fault Atkins and Shapiro have no eye for talent.

 

[Toronto Passions]

Rogers gave Shatkins a blank check and they spent like a drunken at the nudy bar. They had the 7th highest payroll in MLB this season and are paying in American dollars. It's not their fault Atkins and Shapiro have no eye for talent.

The budget is such a mysterious number with this team. I guess it’s fair to assume it’s in that range that it started 2024 with….. it was completely mismanaged.

Philip

 

[Zoot Allures]

So the Baltimore Orioles are owned by a carpetbagger, good to know. Private Equity exploits the economy, not help it grow.

Off topic but, I believe what Buffet is saying is invest your money in index funds and stop giving a percentage to mutual funds or a private equity firm and do not listen to their sales pitch FFS!

This goes for pension funds investing as well as individuals but, while Rubenstein runs an equity firm so you should not give him your money, he still is the type of guy the Jays need.

He did to the Orioles what Rogers tries, but fails, to do with the Jays

 

[Zoot Allures]

Vlad has become the best hitter ever on his extended hot streak because he stops hitting ground balls IMHO.

Everyone knew he had the talent because he hits the ball harder than anyone else.

All he had to do was get the ball off the ground.

So, what has he done to do that and why did it take so long to do it?

 

[Insidious Von]

Rubenstein may not deserve credit for the Orioles turnaround, how many 100 loss seasons did they endure prior to this year?

The influence of their fathers had the opposite effect on Bo and Vladdy. Bo's swing was too violent, eventually his career would be cut short by back problem. A year ago Vladdy started hitting like his father, he would get pitched outside SO or hitting into DP. His swing is more relaxed now, hitting like SR was not his game.

Who;s going to pay him the $300 million: the Jays, Red Sox or Giants?