I don't think there are any good outcomes at this time. I see nothing less than catastrophies.
There was an agreed upon solution to the situation, Minsk I and Minsk II, that were negotiated between The parties, and guaranteed by France and Germany. It turned out to have been negotiated in bad faith by.France and Germany.
Except that's not true.
Minsk I was violated almost instantly and Minsk II was never actually settled since both sides argued a different interpretation of how it was implemented.
"It turned out to have been negotiated in bad faith by.France and Germany" is just untrue, as people constantly posting those articles about how "it bought Ukraine time" keep proving.
You're right though - Russia's history of respecting the treaties it signs is
very bad.
That makes finding a new deal both sides will accept incredibly difficult.
Since then the situation, now full fledged war, has steadily escalated, such that I at least don't see any good outcomes.
Right. It is a full fledged war now.
Why you think this is the best time to strike a deal and "the best deal Ukraine will get" is very bizarre since Russia clearly doesn't want to offer a deal.
If you can think of a way to force Russia to negotiate in good faith, let's talk about a deal.
I just don't see how that is going to happen right now.
Neither side is at the negotiating stage.
Ukraine and many leaders in the west see no end to the war before Russia is defeated and there is regime change in Russia. The West has declared that it will continue arming and training Ukraine for as long as it takes.
Russia sees this as an existential struggle for survival and will not end the war before the Ukrainian army is soundly defeated. It is likely that Russia is preparing a winter offensive.
As I said, neither Ukraine or Russia expects negotiations to go anywhere right now and neither finds the other's position acceptable.
Which is why your "force a peace" is just "make Ukraine Surrender".
Somebody said:"In a war, every available weapon will eventually be used"
They were wrong, of course.