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It turns out China is not a Painting contractor

WyattEarp

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I'll self-implicate. I can be very sarcastic if I think there's a laugh there. People on political threads seem to leave their sense of humor behind them and only want to be serious and severe in their tone.

You might notice I make silly, irreverant posts. I just think people take themselves too seriously on political threads.
 

smuddan

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Mar 7, 2007
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The following is a quote from the US-China Economics and Security Commission Report done in August 2018. "The United Front" is an outfit China uses to infiltrate and influence different walks of lives and government levels aboard. It helps to explain why so many, including many politicians are eager to speak for China and reject criticism.

"The United Front strategy uses a range of methods to influence overseas Chinese communities, foreign governments, and other actors to take actions or adopt positions supportive of Beijing’s preferred policies.5 A number of official and quasi-official entities conduct overseas activities guided or funded by the United Front including Chinese government and military organizations, cultural and “friendship” associations, and overseas academic groups such as Chinese Students and Scholars Associations (CSSAs) and Confucius Institutes.6 The UFWD also oversees influence operations targeting Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau that aim to suppress independence movements, undermine local identity, and promote support for Beijing’s political system.7 In all of these cases, United Front work serves to promote Beijing’s preferred global narrative, pressure individuals living in free and open societies to self-censor and avoid discussing issues unfavorable to the CCP, and harass or undermine groups critical of Beijing’s policies."

For anyone care to read the full report, here's the link :

https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/...ackground and Implications for US_final_0.pdf
 

Polaris

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Oct 11, 2007
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China's economy worsens in July, industrial growth at 17-year low as trade war escalates
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...year-low-as-trade-war-escalates-idUSKCN1V404X
China's rate of industrial growth, had been declining for a while, way before this trade war ever started.

The government there made a push to do two things, one is to get the consumer economy growing more ie comsuption, and two is to wean off the infrastructure spending.

So far this has worked. Consumption now is a bigger driver to China's economy than industrial output.

The lower growth rate of industrial output in China although true, not a motivating factor to do anything about it via the trade war. If the Americans and the Chinese come to a deal, then this growth rate of industrial output probably will not improve much at all. The American market is already saturated with Chinese goods, and the tariffs much will remain in place. American cannot make the Chinese industrial sector growth faster, hence a very lukewarm response to American overtures if they present this number.

The Chinese economy was still producing growth rates over 6% these past few years, all the while industrial growth going down. How did the economy manage to keep going forward when industrial growth retreated? Sooner or later, basic logic must be used.

Some data from an American source regarding what drives the Chinese economy.

GDP - composition, by end use:
household consumption: 39.1% (2017 est.)
government consumption: 14.5% (2017 est.)
investment in fixed capital: 42.7% (2017 est.)
investment in inventories: 1.7% (2017 est.)
exports of goods and services: 20.4% (2017 est.)
imports of goods and services: -18.4% (2017 est.)
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html

(If you want to see for yourself, click onto the economy and scroll down.)
 

Polaris

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Some data from an American source regarding what drives the Chinese economy.

GDP - composition, by end use:
household consumption: 39.1% (2017 est.)
government consumption: 14.5% (2017 est.)
investment in fixed capital: 42.7% (2017 est.)
investment in inventories: 1.7% (2017 est.)
exports of goods and services: 20.4% (2017 est.)
imports of goods and services: -18.4% (2017 est.)
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html

(If you want to see for yourself, click onto the economy and scroll down.)
Quoting my own post ... gotta say one thing ...

America is a weird country.

People believe, what they want to believe, no matter what. It does not matter if you are Joe Blow, or a reporter, or a PhD teaching economics like Navarro, or even the President. An American will believe whatever he/she wants to believe.

One look at these numbers from the CIA, should tell us a few things about the Chinese economy.

1. It is not export dependent.
2. It is consumption driven.
3. This data from 2017 and these trends have baked themselves in there real good. It is year 2019, like, you know.

Yet if we read anything about China in the Liberal media, we do not get this impression. And the CIA, one of the most American of American institutions, has it published right there in black in white.

Kind of glad that I replied in this thread. Made me look at the CIA factbook, something I have not done in a long time, lolz.

:ambivalence:
 

onthebottom

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wilbur

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I’d say China is an export dependent country:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/239rank.html

If you look at developed countries China’s consumption rate is quite low.
You will find that China is rapidly developing its consumer society, as its population is rapidly turning middle class. Domestic consumption will, to some extent, compensate for the rising cost of labour, and the loss of some export potential.

China never stays still.
 

onthebottom

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You will find that China is rapidly developing its consumer society, as its population is rapidly turning middle class. Domestic consumption will, to some extent, compensate for the rising cost of labour, and the loss of some export potential.

China never stays still.
They are a long way from that. Does anyone really think China will become a rich country in a straight line.... really?
 

wilbur

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I find it arrogant when a poster on a political thread insults a people or an electorate to be too stupid to know what's good for them.

The U.S. has refrained from publicly supporting the HK dissidents. I'm sorry if it offends you that HK people are waving U.S. flags as a symbol of freedom.
Stating that you are gullible is a statement of fact. I could have said instead 'you will believe anything the mainstream media tells you'.

It is widespread, and the greatest example was the narrative gobbled up by the masses that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction. The US mainstream media was complicit in that lie, and Canadian mainstream media went along with it, since they too, tend to not question the current mainstream narrative. What happened in 2003 was the classic example of what Chomsky characterized as 'Manufacturing consent for war'. There was a huge bandwagon effect where the general population was whipped up into massive frenzy of hubris and wholeheartedly backed the invasion of Iraq... all based on a complete lie. The very few news media that dared to question this narrative (Night Ridder News Service) were ridiculed and labeled unpatriotic. France refused to go along and Americans started calling their chips Freedom Fries.

You may have freedom of the press in the US, but you don't have journalistic freedom. Corporate owners of mass media tell you what to believe by imposing on their editors an editorial policy, and its all for corporate profits.... war is profitable. As a journalist, if your articles do not reflect the narrative, then you simply do not get published, and eventually lose your job. Seymour Hersch, the greatest investigative reporter of all time, cannot get published in the US anymore. He goes through an obscure literary publisher in Germany.

The lessons of 2003 have not been heeded. It's business as usual. Corporate greed, especially the US military Industrial complex, steers US foreign policy through massive funding of Belt-Way think tanks like the American Enterprise Institute, where most of the original neocons came from, and those pundits influence politicians and viewers alike.

As for foreign meddling in Chinese/Hong Kong affairs, here's 2 articles, one from HK's South China Morning Post, and the second, a republish in Singapore's Straits Times of an article in Kuala Lumpur's The Star:

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3017613/course-foreign-forces-are-work-hong-kong

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/the-cost-of-the-hong-kong-protests-the-star-columnist

"Over the past month, the media has been reporting that groups involved in the protests have received significant funding from the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), "a CIA soft-power cut-out that has played a critical role in innumerable US regime-change operations, " according to writer Alexander Rubinstein.

The report claimed that the NED has four main branches, at least two of which are active in Hong Kong: the Solidarity Centre (SC) and National Democratic Institute (NDI).
"The latter has been active in Hong Kong since 1997, and NED funding for Hong Kong-based groups has been consistent, " Louisa Greve, vice president of programmes for Asia, Middle East and North Africa, was quoted.
While NED funding for groups in Hong Kong goes back to 1994, 1997 was when the British returned the territory to China, it was reported.
The report said in 2018, NED granted US$155, 000 (S$214,286) to SC and US$200, 000 (S$276,499) to NDI for work in Hong Kong, and US$90, 000 (S$124,424) to Hong Kong Human Rights Monitor (HKHRM), which isn't a branch of NED, but a partner in Hong Kong.
Between 1995 and 2013, HKHRM received more than US$1.9mil (S$2.6mil) in funds from the NED.
This isn't the first time the NED's name has cropped up either."

One need not believe 100% any news item. But the existence of a different point of view should be cause for reflection.
 

wilbur

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They are a long way from that. Does anyone really think China will become a rich country in a straight line.... really?

Have you ever even been there? On what do you base your conclusion?

One indication of the fast growing Chinese middle class is that 135 million Chinese travel abroad on tourism every year. In 2000, it was a mere 5 million. The 3rd largest group of foreign visitors to Canada last year was Chinese tourists, at 700,000, after the US and UK, and they spend more on average.

Another is the surge in domestic Chinese e-commerce, at 4 trillion dollars in 2018, compared to .7 trillion in 2010. Total internet users in China is over 800 million, and big cities populations operate in an almost cashless society. Cell phone users exceed 1 billion. Not a backward society anymore.
 

WyattEarp

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Have you ever even been there? On what do you base your conclusion?
No country on the planet has made the transition to a wealthy, developed country without big bumps in the trend line. There are mountains of economic papers written on the subject.

For some reason, Chinese leaders and their supporters believe that this time it will be different because either they are smarter or have more central control or both.
 

Darts

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Jan 15, 2017
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Not a backward society anymore.
Just look at the growth of their universities and the huge number of STEM graduates every year. Some people say at least one and perhaps as many as 20 of their universities are equivalent to MIT.
 

Darts

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Chinese leaders and their supporters believe that this time it will be different because either they are smarter or have more central control or both.
I think the PRC is following the "Singapore Model" to success.
 

wilbur

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No country on the planet has made the transition to a wealthy, developed country without big bumps in the trend line. There are mountains of economic papers written on the subject.

For some reason, Chinese leaders and their supporters believe that this time it will be different because either they are smarter or have more central control or both.
Nobody said that China is perfect. But China is growing so fast, that these academic papers get dated very fast. US originating articles often get tainted by the usual US hubris and exceptionalism, especially if they come from US mainstream media or certain branches of the US government; you cannot take at face value everything you read.

We are not talking about projections, but the present state of Chinese society. The Chinese leaders don't have to make any predictions at all: you just have to look at the statistics, and if you actually care to go there, look around. Every 10 years, China looks different, socially and economically. In 40 years, they went from a poor, centrally planned communist economy to a capitalist powerhouse with a GDP surpassing the US. In 15 years, most residents of the bigger cities have gone cashless, doing virtually all of their monetary transactions through their smartphones.
 

danmand

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Nov 28, 2003
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Nobody said that China is perfect. But China is growing so fast, that these academic papers get dated very fast. US originating articles often get tainted by the usual US hubris and exceptionalism, especially if they come from US mainstream media or certain branches of the US government; you cannot take at face value everything you read.

We are not talking about projections, but the present state of Chinese society. The Chinese leaders don't have to make any predictions at all: you just have to look at the statistics, and if you actually care to go there, look around. Every 10 years, China looks different, socially and economically. In 40 years, they went from a poor, centrally planned communist economy to a capitalist powerhouse with a GDP surpassing the US. In 15 years, most residents of the bigger cities have gone cashless, doing virtually all of their monetary transactions through their smartphones.
Indeed. I have gone there several times the last 15 years. Even as an (observant) tourist, you see phenomenal changes.
 

WyattEarp

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I think the PRC is following the "Singapore Model" to success.
Singapore is a city of 5 million. They are also a trading and financial service outpost for Asia.

The model doesn't come close to scaling to a 1.4 billion country.
 

WyattEarp

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Nobody said that China is perfect. But China is growing so fast, that these academic papers get dated very fast. US originating articles often get tainted by the usual US hubris and exceptionalism, especially if they come from US mainstream media or certain branches of the US government; you cannot take at face value everything you read.
That's all fine and true.

What we are saying is investment shocks, recessions and depressions are all inevitable. When those events occur, the Chinese people will be more inclined to question the one party state, inconsistent rule of law and political corruption. This puts stress on the body politic.

Some people have always labeled capitalism as American or Western economics. Economics is not a cultural phenomenon or philosophy. Even Chinese who study, research and teach it just call it Economics. Chinese economists' influence ebbs and flows within the government as it competes with other political influences.

To put it simply, China will not be able to avoid a major economic shock. It will test the Communist Party of China.
 

WyattEarp

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Just look at the growth of their universities and the huge number of STEM graduates every year. Some people say at least one and perhaps as many as 20 of their universities are equivalent to MIT.
Don't forget the Indian STEM graduates. There's one problem with your theory Darts. White pussy!

Every top of his class Indian and Chinese STEM graduate wants white pussy. White pussy is the prize that drives the global economy.

Okay, maybe that's a bit of an overstatement, but it's pretty damn good when you can get it.
 

wilbur

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That's all fine and true.

What we are saying is investment shocks, recessions and depressions are all inevitable. When those events occur, the Chinese people will be more inclined to question the one party state, inconsistent rule of law and political corruption. This puts stress on the body politic.

Some people have always labeled capitalism as American or Western economics. Economics is not a cultural phenomenon or philosophy. Even Chinese who study, research and teach it just call it Economics. Chinese economists' influence ebbs and flows within the government as it competes with other political influences.

To put it simply, China will not be able to avoid a major economic shock. It will test the Communist Party of China.
China mitigates economic shock by doing long range planning. China already made plans for a break with the US as a trading partner, and that's why they are counting on the rapidly growing middle class to make up for diminishing exports to pick up the slack, transforming China into more of a service economy; they have embarked on the One Belt One Road project, investing massively in transportation infrastructore, including towards and into Africa. The goal is to elevate basket case African country economics so that their population has the means to buy their products.... in other words elevate African populations to a consumer oriented middle class.

All the West ever did was invest just enough to be able to get resources out of foreign countries, and bribe local officials or install despots in order to keep their populations subservient and poor. That was called colonialism. The greatest example was India: During famines, they were forced to export their agricultural products while the populations starved; even British bureaucrats were punished for trying to keep enough for the locals. India had to buy all of their manufactured goods from England, gutting Indian industry. Churchill despised India.

China went through a difficult economic time in 2008, but people who lost their jobs just went back to the family farm until the economy picked up again.

The government is expanding social welfare including medical coverage so that people don't have to hoard their money so much in case they get sick; this way people will spend more on consumer goods. Public Provincial health plans are now portable into the other Provinces. Migrant workers can now use their public health benefits when working out of province, even they are there without proper papers.
 

wilbur

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Don't forget the Indian STEM graduates. There's one problem with your theory Darts. White pussy!

Every top of his class Indian and Chinese STEM graduate wants white pussy. White pussy is the prize that drives the global economy.

Okay, maybe that's a bit of an overstatement, but it's pretty damn good when you can get it.
What do you mean, white pussy?
 
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