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The bad economic news has begun, and there is more coming. Much more.

Ceiling Cat

Well-known member
Feb 25, 2009
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Hertz has asked their bankers and suppliers to give them concessions and special terms or they will file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The sheiss will hit the fan when banks report on their first and second quarter. There will be a lot of personal and business loan defaults and the news will be stretched out for 18-24 months. Get ready for another dip in the stock market.
 

Malibuk

Well-known member
Jan 9, 2017
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Thank you Captain Obvious.

Just kidding, as there as still many people who are ignorant to the devastation that is happening.

I want to know what will happen when eviction halting orders are lifted and massive numbers of people are several months rent in the hole.
Bailing them out would outrage the people who have struggled to pay their rent.
 

waynec

Member
Nov 23, 2008
112
16
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Hertz has asked their bankers and suppliers to give them concessions and special terms or they will file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The sheiss will hit the fan when banks report on their first and second quarter. There will be a lot of personal and business loan defaults and the news will be stretched out for 18-24 months. Get ready for another dip in the stock market.
i took your advise and sold all my stock in my active trading accounts and paid down my debt. the fundamentals of the market are not sound. having said that, i am keeping my eyes open to good opportunities. This just came out...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/05/politics/what-matters-may-5/index.html
 

Ceiling Cat

Well-known member
Feb 25, 2009
28,189
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The tsunami of bad news is on the way!
 

CLOUD 500

Active member
Jan 10, 2005
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Golds gym has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Reitmans is not too far away from declaring bankruptcy. The media created so much fear that no one is thinking clear at all the economic destruction that is coming their way.
 

Fradi

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Mar 22, 2017
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Chibougamau
Golds gym has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Reitmans is not too far away from declaring bankruptcy. The media created so much fear that no one is thinking clear at all the economic destruction that is coming their way.
Reitmans would have gone bankrupt anyway, it was struggling before the pandemic.
Gyms have a lot of competition, businesses come and go all the time, just like they will after the pandemic will be over.
It is not the media that created the fear. The fear is real, so are the deaths all over the world, it is China that created it and most of the world’s governments were unprepared for it and now they are suffering the consequences.
 

Butler1000

Well-known member
Oct 31, 2011
28,714
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I said this before and I will say it again.

Alot of businesses were run poorly, didn't plan for a downturn. Lots of publicly traded companies doing stock buybacks up to 90% of profit to boost the price.

No long term planning.

I'm not mourning many of them.
 

Ceiling Cat

Well-known member
Feb 25, 2009
28,189
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Canadian Tire reports Q1 profit loss of 87.5%. CDN Tire is the best retailer in Canada, the ones at the bottom of the list will go belly up. When the news of these bankruptcies come to light it will cause a panic.
 

Anbarandy

Bitter House****
Apr 27, 2006
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Canadian Tire reports Q1 profit loss of 87.5%. CDN Tire is the best retailer in Canada, the ones at the bottom of the list will go belly up. When the news of these bankruptcies come to light it will cause a panic.
An 87.5% Q1 profit loss of what?

Do you mean a drop in Q1 profit of 87.5% compared to prior year Q1 profit; compared to prior Quarterly profit; a Q1 profit loss of 87.5% of Q1 revenue?
 

Ceiling Cat

Well-known member
Feb 25, 2009
28,189
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An 87.5% Q1 profit loss of what?

Do you mean a drop in Q1 profit of 87.5% compared to prior year Q1 profit; compared to prior Quarterly profit; a Q1 profit loss of 87.5% of Q1 revenue?
Umm, yes!
 

Ceiling Cat

Well-known member
Feb 25, 2009
28,189
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Over confidence. If you are in the market now, as the bad news is pouring in then you risk getting your pecker chopped off. We are getting bad new by the hour, watch BNN and NBR. Some people just can not decode the message that things are bad and getting worse. The stock market slump to 25-33% on March 4 was the covod-19 slump. the expected recession has not happened yet. The stock market recovery back to the 33-50% level gave some people the idea that things are not as bad as it really is. The second dip will come and it will be enhanced by the covid-19 shut down. There will be loss of jobs, and businesses that will cut back to bare minimum to survive. The onslaught of personal and business loan defaults will cause the banks to be batten down the hatches .

I am waiting for the big tsunami to come in, so head to high ground now. The people that are still buying are :

a) People that have been hurt bad in the stock market and are trying to regain their losses.
b) People that believe the March 4th slump was the one and only hit we will take.

The buyers of today are the big institutions that can wait for a profit or inexperienced unsophisticated buyers that see profit and not see the danger. Will the buyers of today still be buyers when they get kicked in the nuts?
 

Malibuk

Well-known member
Jan 9, 2017
1,127
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This bear market rally is running on tired legs.
 
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Allegra Escorts

Supporting Member
Feb 27, 2014
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I don't think anyone disagrees that a large economic downturn is upon us, and I don't think anyone expects it will improve quickly, or soon. But the recession isn't affecting everything equally, and it seems pretty clear by now which stocks are hurting, and which ones are booming. Maybe the upswing is because the market has mostly priced all that in already?

If not, which sectors specifically do you think are heavily overvalued, and why? I'm an amateur at this so guidance is appreciated. :)
 

riskybusiness

Member
Nov 2, 2019
72
2
8
Over confidence. If you are in the market now, as the bad news is pouring in then you risk getting your pecker chopped off. We are getting bad new by the hour, watch BNN and NBR. Some people just can not decode the message that things are bad and getting worse. The stock market slump to 25-33% on March 4 was the covod-19 slump. the expected recession has not happened yet. The stock market recovery back to the 33-50% level gave some people the idea that things are not as bad as it really is. The second dip will come and it will be enhanced by the covid-19 shut down. There will be loss of jobs, and businesses that will cut back to bare minimum to survive. The onslaught of personal and business loan defaults will cause the banks to be batten down the hatches .

I am waiting for the big tsunami to come in, so head to high ground now. The people that are still buying are :

a) People that have been hurt bad in the stock market and are trying to regain their losses.
b) People that believe the March 4th slump was the one and only hit we will take.

The buyers of today are the big institutions that can wait for a profit or inexperienced unsophisticated buyers that see profit and not see the danger. Will the buyers of today still be buyers when they get kicked in the nuts?
I think NBR ended a few years ago...shame I liked watching it.

I've got a load of cash waiting for the crash. Might also start cashing out on some of my positions too after another one of those days where the market goes up 2%

Are the dividends safe though for the banks ?
 

Ceiling Cat

Well-known member
Feb 25, 2009
28,189
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Are the dividends safe though for the banks ?
The dividends are safe for the banks, BMO dividends were safe in January when the stock was $77 and it is safe today @ $49. When there is a second retraction and it goes to $30 it well still be safe, you will get your dividend but at a much lower rate. Along with the diminished worth of your stock.

My guess is that the bad news will keep on coming and at a much faster pace in the next few weeks/months. It will be 6 months before the storm starts to subside and it will take another 6 months before there is the faintest glimmer of change for the better.

The Bank of England is warning of the worse economic condition ever in the history of the UK. ( This after Brexit )

US unemployment was at its lowest in a century in December @ 3.6% now they are predicting a minimum of 15% unemployment.
 
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Allegra Escorts

Supporting Member
Feb 27, 2014
3,167
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The dividends are safe for the banks, BMO dividends were safe in January when the stock was $101 and it is safe today @ $67. When there is a second retraction and it goes to $35 it well still be safe, you will get your dividend but at a much lower rate. Along with the diminished worth of your stock.

My guess is that the bad news will keep on coming and at a much faster pace in the next few weeks/months. It will be 6 months before the storm starts to subside and it will take another 6 moths before there is the faintest glimmer of change for the better.

The Bank of England is warning of the worse economic condition ever in the history of the UK. ( This after Brexit )

US unemployment was at its lowest in a century in December @ 3.6% now they are predicting a minimum of 15% unemployment.
I agree with you on the financials, the high yield makes them a decent long-term play. That might be the one thing buoying their stock price, because I don't think the full impact will hit that sector until we see mass foreclosures and a property crash... But will that be enough to cause the whole market to dive? And where will the money go instead, bonds? Metals? Or back into cash again?

I figure that tech stocks are about where they should be (doing well or holding their own), and travel and entertainment are also about where they should be (mostly in the gutter). But which sectors are overvalued enough to cause another run, and another deep drop?

I'm not saying you're wrong; I agree, the economy looks baaaaaaad. But if the market hasn't already priced that into current projections, then I'd love to know which sectors have the most glaring examples of overconfidence. :)
 

nottyboi

Well-known member
May 14, 2008
22,447
1,325
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Are you prediciting banks will cut their divvy? On the whole I am staying away form banks because debt defaults WILL happen. It is ineivtable, The govt, however, will purchase a lot of the debt for banks to inject liquidity into them.


The dividends are safe for the banks, BMO dividends were safe in January when the stock was $101 and it is safe today @ $67. When there is a second retraction and it goes to $35 it well still be safe, you will get your dividend but at a much lower rate. Along with the diminished worth of your stock.

My guess is that the bad news will keep on coming and at a much faster pace in the next few weeks/months. It will be 6 months before the storm starts to subside and it will take another 6 moths before there is the faintest glimmer of change for the better.

The Bank of England is warning of the worse economic condition ever in the history of the UK. ( This after Brexit )

US unemployment was at its lowest in a century in December @ 3.6% now they are predicting a minimum of 15% unemployment.
 

Ceiling Cat

Well-known member
Feb 25, 2009
28,189
1,103
113
But if the market hasn't already priced that into current projections, then I'd love to know which sectors have the most glaring examples of overconfidence. :)
I think that on March 4 when all the market dropped to 35-40% of its value that is where it should have stayed. The rebound of 10-15% is inexperience, speculation or false hope. Buying at this point for the mid to long term will get you a profit but you may have to wait 24 -36 months before the prices move towards previous levels. IMHO what is priced into the markets at this time is the covid-19 shut down of Canada / the world. What is not priced in is the massive spending by governments so far with more spending to come. The expected recession that has not happened yet. The announcements of mass unemployment after the shut down. ( projections of 11% unemployment for the GTA and 18% for Montreal ) The taxes not collected from the coming unemployment and the employment insurance that has to be paid out by governments.

Are you prediciting banks will cut their divvy? On the whole I am staying away form banks because debt defaults WILL happen. It is ineivtable, The govt, however, will purchase a lot of the debt for banks to inject liquidity into them.
In the great recession of 2007-2009 The Bank of Montreal dropped from $66.50 to $22.00 in 16 months, it took 4 years for the prices to recover to previous levels. You will get your dividend, but at a diminished stock price. BMO is a blue chop stock and may pay you the dividend, but other companies may reduce or cut dividends to survive.
 

decoy2673

Well-known member
Oct 31, 2010
435
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I think Trump being president has given investors supreme confidence in the market. IE he won't let it drop one way or another. I believe that's what caused the monster rally from the march 23 "bottom". But who knows if he will still be in power come November. Me personally as an investor with a long term investor im sitting on the sidelines until the election while simultaneously seeing how the Covid situation has evolved by then. With 293 SPY right now im definitely not in a hurry to get in anyways.
 
Ashley Madison
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