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Investing : It is time to get out now. Come back in better times. Go to cash, now!

Ceiling Cat

Well-known member
Feb 25, 2009
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2EX4qTwP58

I am going to cash, I suspect that what we have seen so far is just the beginning. When the sheiss hits the fan it will not be pleasant. In a few weeks we will see what the true devastation is, the loss of jobs.
There will be a recession, we were already expecting it before the covid-19 crisis. I am expecting 18-24 months of hard time before we even start to climb back up. The reality is that the whole world has been shut down, and that has to have some profound effect on the global economy. The stock markets in the last few weeks have given us a preview of what is to come. We will see a big hit soon, in the next 2-4 months. When it hits it will be too late.
 
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Malibuk

Well-known member
Jan 9, 2017
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If this is a bear market rally, as many suspect, then yes now would be a good time to get out, as such a rally would be getting long in the tooth very soon.
 

bazokajoe

Well-known member
Nov 6, 2010
9,263
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I'm staying in.Nobody can time the market. The so called experts have been calling for a market correction for the last 2 years. Only Covid-19 made it come true.
 

waynec

Member
Nov 23, 2008
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2EX4qTwP58

I am going to cash, I suspect that what we have seen so far is just the beginning. When the sheiss hits the fan it will not be pleasant. In a few weeks we will see what the true devastation is, the loss of jobs.
There will be a recession, we were already expecting it before the covid-19 crisis. I am expecting 18-24 months of hard time before we even start to climb back up. The reality is that the whole world has been shut down, and that has to have some profound effect on the global economy. The stock markets in the last few weeks have given us a preview of what is to come. We will see a big hit soon, in the next 2-4 months. When it hits it will be too late.
Interesting move as i am contimplating the same given the recent bull run. its going to take at least til 4Q if not 2021 to get back to normal. Florida just reopened beaches and some US States will reopen next month. Hopefully they dont see another outbreak. i have some debt, so thinking of cashing in to pay it all down.
 

Carvher

Well-known member
Apr 13, 2010
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I have never seen the market as disconnected as it is from reality. Things were starting to slow down before the virus. I started shorting on Thursday and added to my short positions on Friday. I will continue to short into an extended rally. The next leg down will be ugly. Markets are looking ahead as if we will be back to normal by q3. Even if a vaccine were to come out tomorrow (which is not happening) it will take a year to get back to 80% of where we were. I think this will take 9 to 18 months to play out. Bottom will be hit somewhere in that time. Good strategy us to short against your holdings to ensure your valuations will stay about the same while collecting dividends on what you still have. Be patient and cover your shorts when you think we are close to bottom and then go long. Won't be able to time the bottom but don't really need to
 

Carvher

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Apr 13, 2010
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Most stocks I follow have gone up with this rally but on volumes of 40 to 70 percent of average. This has been a very weak rally volume wise which tells me that it won't hold long
 

HEYHEY

Well-known member
Nov 25, 2005
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Why would you go to cash? Governments around the world are printing money at an insane rate. If you want a safe investment go with gold
 

escortsxxx

Well-known member
Jul 15, 2004
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Tdot
Why would you go to cash? Governments around the world are printing money at an insane rate. If you want a safe investment go with gold
orbit coin lol
 

Ceiling Cat

Well-known member
Feb 25, 2009
28,189
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I suspect this is the quiet before the storm. The economy will be in flux for the next 24 months. The world has to break the covid-19 cycle and get back in business as best we can. The fear of covid-19 returning will be in the back of peoples minds. Any flair up and we will go into panic mode. People believed that this can not happen to us now live in a world where it happened to everyone. Even if there is a break through and a vaccine is available it enough will be made for everyone and it can not be distributed quickly. There is also the U.S. presidential elections this fall, will a madman be at the helm for another four years in the worse times? So the rough ride is coming no matter how things go.

A simple way to make your choice. Ask yourself, will you be able to buy back the stock you sell today for less than it is worth now when things go bad? I think several bad thing will happen in the next couple of years.
 

Insidious Von

My head is my home
Sep 12, 2007
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My medical technologies fund is doing well but the air is going out of the markets. The bears are eating the unicorns already. We are now it the age of accelerated contagion, it took 17 years for SARS to mutate from it's 2003 configuration, it won't take that long a third time. At the moment I'm following Larry Fink's approach, investing in the future - I'll take the blows as they come. I moved some of my money out of the market last month but I still want to stay in the game.

 

malata

RockStar
Jan 16, 2004
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Paradise by the dashboard light.
My medical technologies fund is doing well but the air is going out of the markets. The bears are eating the unicorns already. We are now it the age of accelerated contagion, it took 17 years for SARS to mutate from it's 2003 configuration, it won't take that long a third time. At the moment I'm following Larry Fink's approach, investing in the future - I'll take the blows as they come. I moved some of my money out of the market last month but I still want to stay in the game.

great video. i agree with the portfolio mix at low-medium risk under these conditions

 

malata

RockStar
Jan 16, 2004
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Paradise by the dashboard light.
If you have a long-term horizon, would now not be a decent time to buy? The whole dollar-cost averaging thing?
absolutely. that's the whole point of a diverse ETF portfolio dollar-cost averaging. dudes who invest in individual stocks, play at their own risk

 

Malibuk

Well-known member
Jan 9, 2017
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A V-shaped recovery would seem to be virtually impossible.

Fasten you seat belts.
 

Malibuk

Well-known member
Jan 9, 2017
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If you have a long-term horizon, would now not be a decent time to buy? The whole dollar-cost averaging thing?
Perhaps, but there will be better opportunities than the peak of this bear market rally.
 

malata

RockStar
Jan 16, 2004
3,829
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Paradise by the dashboard light.
A V-shaped recovery would seem to be virtually impossible.

Fasten you seat belts.
Perhaps, but there will be better opportunities than the peak of this bear market rally.

things don't go straight up or straight down, thus the law of dollar-cost averaging

 

Malibuk

Well-known member
Jan 9, 2017
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things don't go straight up or straight down, thus the law of dollar-cost averaging
For people who contribute every paycheque, it doesn`t matter.
For people who put in lump sums from time to time, there are times when one can be more selective.

For someone looking to get into the market now, there is no rush to go long.
For sure the recent lows will be retested, and most likely not hold.
I hope I am wrong, but I doubt it.
 

malata

RockStar
Jan 16, 2004
3,829
172
63
Paradise by the dashboard light.
For people who contribute every paycheque, it doesn`t matter.
For people who put in lump sums from time to time, there are times when one can be more selective.

For someone looking to get into the market now, there is no rush to go long.
For sure the recent lows will be retested, and most likely not hold.
I hope I am wrong, but I doubt it.
a lot more to do with the investment product and time period in reference to goodoer's statement and IV's video. with short-term isolated stock picks, then timing is key
 

Ceiling Cat

Well-known member
Feb 25, 2009
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I do not think it will be a V , U , W or hockey stick recession. It is going to be a WWWW recession.
 

Insidious Von

My head is my home
Sep 12, 2007
38,093
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I do not think it will be a V , U , W or hockey stick recession. It is going to be a WWWW recession.
Governments don't tell you the full story when it comes to recession. We are lead to believe that the Great Recession lasted from 2007 to 2010, it was much longer than that. The stock market went WWWW until 2015.
 
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