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Coronavirus/Stocks when to buy

Remdesivir - Yes, the first drug that in trials has been effective, but so far only used in the sickest near-death patients. Expanding trials are now going on worldwide, and millions of doses it being produced as fast as possible. Trials yet to come on less severe patients.

The double-blind study has now stopped using the placedo portion and using it on everyone. It is not a cure and didn't prevent death for some folks, but it is the first break-thru as a safe and at least somewhat effective treatment. There is a lot more work to be done.
 

Smallcock

Active member
Jun 5, 2009
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I hope I didn't miss the boat :(
 

xix

Time Zone Traveller
Jul 27, 2002
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La la land
Watch this video only 16mins

March 23 was the big dip for CDN stocks. I can see another happening soon, but NOT as low as March 23 for most stocks. BMO hit 56.24, I can see next week or two get hit at 59-60. By historical stats it would go up after this second low hit. Reason is if we open June 1 ( I am talking big Industries) it should start to climb. How fast? is a lucky guess. I would buy and only hold for 3 months or starting August.

Use the stock prices for 2008 and see what happened to the ones you are interested in that year or two..
 

Ceiling Cat

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Feb 25, 2009
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riskybusiness

Member
Nov 2, 2019
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Market up again. I bought on the way down in late Feb/early March and now I have broken even with those buys. Banks stocks up quite a bit - I thought BNS reported 40% decline in profits the other day and their share price went up 5%! Waiting for the next correction to buy in.
 

Ceiling Cat

Well-known member
Feb 25, 2009
28,189
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I believe bank stocks have peaked. There are no fundamentals to prop the price up at these levels. The bad news is about to flood in. People are confident that the government will keep pumping out stimulus, I do not believe that they can do this continuously. Even the second round of stimulus had been delayed by the US congress. I have sold off most of my shares because I believ that there will be a second retreat of prices on the stock market on the horizon.
 

Butler1000

Well-known member
Oct 31, 2011
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I'm thinking REITs with the right mix of ownership could be a good buy.
 

decoy2673

Well-known member
Oct 31, 2010
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Bank stocks are safe, but worried about their uncertain future due to loan/credit/interest rate situation.

Been picking up some Enbridge, Brookfield, and Aritzia stock. Solid companies with good upside that are on sale.
 

Ceiling Cat

Well-known member
Feb 25, 2009
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Mixed opinions from the big players. Buffett is getting ready for another correction/crash according to this guy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7Jj6-esAlU
Warren Buffett did not get to where he is by being stupid or lucky, he knows what he is doing. He sold off the airlines because there is no chance they can make a profit in the short/medium term. The banks are about to take big hits with personal and commercial loan defaults.

Headline : Bank of Montreal Sets Aside $813 Million for Soured Loans

...........and so has every bank in the world setting money aside for bad loans. The banks will take a beating for a few years.

https://business.financialpost.com/...treal-sets-aside-813-million-for-soured-loans

If the Oracle of Omaha is hunkering down, you had better do the same.


Bank stocks are safe, but worried about their uncertain future due to loan/credit/interest rate situation. IMHO, banks are in for a beating.

Been picking up some Enbridge, Brookfield, and Aritzia stock. Solid companies with good upside that are on sale.
If you can wait 3-5 years on your investment Enbridge, Brookfield, and Aritzia are sure to pay off. In the short term we are in for a rough ride and there will be another event like the one on March 4 when the lemmings were running off a cliff, but the next time it may be worse. I would wait to buy my stocks after the lemming suicide fest.

BTW - Re : Aritzia

Aritzia Inc. expects 45% drop in net revenue in first quarter due to COVID-19

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/aritzia-inc-expects-45-drop-221357409.html
 

danmand

Well-known member
Nov 28, 2003
46,353
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The "Smart Money" Continues To Sell Stocks And Buy Gold, As Retail Investors Go Berserk

Fri, 05/29/2020 - 17:30

Another, week, another remarkable increase in the net short position in Emini S&P non-commercial futures futures - even as the S&P hits a new post-crisis high, closing the week at 3,044 - which in the latest week increased by 24k to a net -277K, nearly 3 standard deviations below the recent average and tying the biggest net short since the oil crisis and manufacturing recession of late 2015.



Separately, Bank of America today confirmed this trend of "smart money" selling stocks, with the bank's "private" high net worth clients not only selling stocks for 7 consecutive weeks, but last week recording the largest week of equity selling since June 19.

What are the private clients doing with the newly released cash? Why buying gold, with BofA's Michael Hartnett writing that over the "past four weeks exclusive buying of gold' as well as several other products including healthcare (covid hedge), TIPS (inflation hedge) and IG (fed-backstopped).





Incidentally, the continued bearish bias of institutional and high net worth clients is often cited as a key driver to the continued upward momentum for the broader market, with Goldman earlier today noting that "institutional investors, such as mutual funds, are among the investor categories with the most room to increase their equity allocations. CFTC net futures positioning has continued to decline from levels at the market trough and mutual fund cash positions jumped to a two-year high in March. US money market funds have experienced effectively no reversal of the $1.2 trillion of inflows experienced during the past three months. Money market mutual fund assets now total $6.0 trillion. Reduced outflows from active mutual funds could also support equity purchases by this cohort."

Which is not to say that every type of investor is bearish: in contrast to institutions and HNWs, hedge funds and retail investors "already appear relatively optimistic on the current market outlook" according to Goldman, which notes that while hedge funds have historically cut leverage and been left underexposed for the ensuing rebound, during the recent sell-off funds cut net leverage by less and stopped cutting at a higher level of exposure compared with previous drawdowns. As a result, net exposures calculated by GS Prime Services currently rank in the 92nd percentile in the past 10 years.
 

Ceiling Cat

Well-known member
Feb 25, 2009
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I have already sold all the stocks that need selling, weeks ago. The people that are selling are Buffett 'ing their money away for a rainy day. Can you really afford to be in the market the next time an event like March 4 hits, again? Stocks dropped 40 - 66%. How long will it take you to regain your losses? Going forward wouldn't be much better to have your money working full strength when there are buying opportunities?
 

saxon

Well-known member
Dec 2, 2009
4,748
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I continue to buy TD and BEP.UN, I’ve also been adding to my positions in Amazon and Clorox.
 

xix

Time Zone Traveller
Jul 27, 2002
3,650
1,104
113
La la land
Watch this video only 16mins

March 23 was the big dip for CDN stocks. I can see another happening soon, but NOT as low as March 23 for most stocks. BMO hit 56.24, I can see next week or two get hit at 59-60. By historical stats it would go up after this second low hit. Reason is if we open June 1 ( I am talking big Industries) it should start to climb. How fast? is a lucky guess. I would buy and only hold for 3 months or starting August. .

What is priced into the market prices up to now? Only the covid-19 pandemic and the near 2 month closing of the Canada.


My guess is not as optimistic as your guess. BMO has slid from the January price of $79 to today $44. the price of BMO as well as other stocks have fell off a cliff and now we are on a ledge. There will be a further slide, for BMO being one of the better stocks my guess is that it will hit mid 20s before it gets better. This will all play out in the next 18-24 months.
BMO today/ Friday $67.92
If the first week of June, BMo doesn't slide below 60-63 I will buy magic pills for a wise grumpy Cat.

Back in the day I bought this stock S&P/TSX 60 Index at around $60 3 months later I think, I sold it at 80 plus. Wish I have kept. Now it is $917. There is a difference of long terms definitions out there.
 

decoy2673

Well-known member
Oct 31, 2010
435
260
63
Warren Buffett did not get to where he is by being stupid or lucky, he knows what he is doing. He sold off the airlines because there is no chance they can make a profit in the short/medium term. The banks are about to take big hits with personal and commercial loan defaults.

Headline : Bank of Montreal Sets Aside $813 Million for Soured Loans

...........and so has every bank in the world setting money aside for bad loans. The banks will take a beating for a few years.

https://business.financialpost.com/...treal-sets-aside-813-million-for-soured-loans

If the Oracle of Omaha is hunkering down, you had better do the same.




If you can wait 3-5 years on your investment Enbridge, Brookfield, and Aritzia are sure to pay off. In the short term we are in for a rough ride and there will be another event like the one on March 4 when the lemmings were running off a cliff, but the next time it may be worse. I would wait to buy my stocks after the lemming suicide fest.

BTW - Re : Aritzia

Aritzia Inc. expects 45% drop in net revenue in first quarter due to COVID-19

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/aritzia-inc-expects-45-drop-221357409.html
Agreed, Im keeping mostly dry powder at the moment. Like buffet says the market likes to transfer money from the impatient to the patient. I liked aritzia because I notice alot of young women love their stuff lol. And I see a similar comparable to Lululemon which is an absolute rocket on the NYSE. A big revenue drop is expected but the 150% increase in online sales is encouraging. I got in at 16.5, its now 18.14 and with room to run as analysts are setting price targets between 21-23. I think overall Canada is much less affected by COVID so I think the sales will rebound sooner than later.
 

danmand

Well-known member
Nov 28, 2003
46,353
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Agreed, Im keeping mostly dry powder at the moment. Like buffet says the market likes to transfer money from the impatient to the patient. I liked aritzia because I notice alot of young women love their stuff lol. And I see a similar comparable to Lululemon which is an absolute rocket on the NYSE. A big revenue drop is expected but the 150% increase in online sales is encouraging. I got in at 16.5, its now 18.14 and with room to run as analysts are setting price targets between 21-23. I think overall Canada is much less affected by COVID so I think the sales will rebound sooner than later.
I am keeping liquidity, mostly cash, but I have parked some in Gold and silver ETF's for the short term. For long term I have physical Gold and Silver in vaults.

I expect the banks and REITs to hit the March lows again.
 

tribunus

Terror Belli Decus Pacis
May 26, 2008
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I expect the banks and REITs to hit the March lows again.
God help us if REITs get any lower. Empty malls, plazas and office space have been devastating. You don't want to know how much my REIT holdings have plummeted.
 

danmand

Well-known member
Nov 28, 2003
46,353
4,776
113
God help us if REITs get any lower. Empty malls, plazas and office space have been devastating. You don't want to know how much my REIT holdings have plummeted.
I already know. 30%
 

anon1

Well-known member
Aug 19, 2001
10,285
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