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Iran Leaves Nuclear Deal

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basketcase

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kstanb said:
According to this
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/01/how-close-is-iran-to-a-nuclear-bomb-really/

"Tehran would need 1,050 kilograms of low-enriched uranium to make the core of one bomb, according to Joe Cirincione, the president of the Ploughshares Fund. Then, Iran would have to further enrich it, to 90 percent purity, using centrifuges until it had about 25 kilograms of what is called “highly enriched uranium.”

so with your #s they are not there yet.
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As I said (and according to the article), they could do it with their enrichment capacity. They don't have enough to make a bomb RIGHT NOW but have stated they are ramping up their enrichment capacity.
Experts estimate that it would take about a year for Tehran to enrich enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb, also called the “breakout point”—potentially faster if Iran violates other parts of the 2015 accord.
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Also according to the article, before the deal, Iran had enough low grade uranium to make 10 bombs.

p.s. Other sources say 15 kg, not 25.
https://www.livescience.com/5752-hard-nuclear-weapons.html
 
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kstanb

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they can't do it now, I doubt they will be able to do it in the next few days or weeks before their revenge and US retaliation
 
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onthebottom

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Frankfooter

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basketcase said:
They have a shit load of centrifuges so if they wanted to they could produce one.

According to the last IAEA report (Nov 2019) says they have 216 kg at 3.67% and 160 kg at 4.5%. My quick mental math has that equivalent to 16 kg at 90% which is enough for 1 bomb and a bit left over.
https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/19/11/gov2019-55.pdf
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So Trump should shut the fuck up, take whatever reprisal Iran is allowed to give back and get the JCPOA going again.
Oh, unless you're here arguing that we need yet another stupid middle east war.
 
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nottyboi

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jcpro said:
Trump will go after the oil infrastructure and exclude any international commercial concerns doing business with Iran from the American market. Up to the travel bans for their principals.
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If Trump goes for Irans oil infrastructure, there is a MASSIVE amount of oil infrastruture Iran can target that is owned by western oil companies..and they will.
 
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nottyboi

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kstanb said:
According to this
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/01/how-close-is-iran-to-a-nuclear-bomb-really/

"Tehran would need 1,050 kilograms of low-enriched uranium to make the core of one bomb, according to Joe Cirincione, the president of the Ploughshares Fund. Then, Iran would have to further enrich it, to 90 percent purity, using centrifuges until it had about 25 kilograms of what is called “highly enriched uranium.”

so with your #s they are not there yet.
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His numbers are never there.. there is always some crazy scenario that has Iran building a bomb. Well the scenario now is they NEED a BOMB. Trump has created circumstances where they really have no choice but to develop nuclear weapons. If I were Kahmani I would have those centrifuges spinning 7x24. I would name the first bomb ORANGE MAN. lol
 
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kstanb

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it is not that simple or easy, even after they have the enriched uranium they would need to weaponize it, it is supposedly very difficult to make a nuclear-tipped missile, and a Hiroshima-like free fall atomic bomb, which is a lot easier to make, is not feasible because an Iranian bomber has no chance to reach its target without being intercepted. Does they have the time to build this all before the start of an imminent war? would they postpone their vengeance for a few years?

then, a bomb at most give them a bit of deterrence, they would have a couple, crude devices vs the biggest arsenal... so Iran or proxies use it and retaliation would be the end of the Persian civilization
 
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onthebottom

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nottyboi said:
His numbers are never there.. there is always some crazy scenario that has Iran building a bomb. Well the scenario now is they NEED a BOMB. Trump has created circumstances where they really have no choice but to develop nuclear weapons. If I were Kahmani I would have those centrifuges spinning 7x24. I would name the first bomb ORANGE MAN. lol
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Given Irans rabid views of Israel and their proximity I don’t think Israel would let it happen.
 
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nottyboi

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kstanb said:
it is not that simple or easy, even after they have the enriched uranium they would need to weaponize it, it is supposedly very difficult to make a nuclear-tipped missile, and a Hiroshima-like free fall atomic bomb, which is a lot easier to make, is not feasible because an Iranian bomber has no chance to reach its target without being intercepted. Does they have the time to build this all before the start of an imminent war? would they postpone their vengeance for a few years?

then, a bomb at most give them a bit of deterrence, they would have a couple, crude devices vs the biggest arsenal... so Iran or proxies use it and retaliation would be the end of the Persian civilization
Click to expand...
They have ballistic missiles with sufficient payload to hoist a bomb. I have little doubt they have amassed the intellectual property to build a device at this point. They don't need to develop it all themselves. Between Pakistan, NK, Russia they probably have all the knowledge they need. A bomb would give them a shit load of deterrence
 
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basketcase

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Frankfooter said:
So Trump should shut the fuck up, take whatever reprisal Iran is allowed to give back and get the JCPOA going again.
Oh, unless you're here arguing that we need yet another stupid middle east war.
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You must have forgotten to bash Iran for now rejecting the deal after months of small violations.
 
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basketcase

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onthebottom said:
Given Irans rabid views of Israel and their proximity I don’t think Israel would let it happen.
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Did anyone else notice how Iran's comments about retaliating included threats to two Israeli cities? I know that the "anti-zionist" anti-semites buy into all sorts of racist tropes about Jews and Israel controlling America but them threatening to hit Israel because of an American attack is just as unhinged as Trump promising to hit cultural sites if Iran responds.
 
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basketcase

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nottyboi said:
They have ballistic missiles with sufficient payload to hoist a bomb. I have little doubt they have amassed the intellectual property to build a device at this point. They don't need to develop it all themselves. Between Pakistan, NK, Russia they probably have all the knowledge they need. A bomb would give them a shit load of deterrence
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And do you think Iran's leaders controlling nukes is a good thing?
 
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