I think support by both the Black and Latino communities has grown dramatically for Trump. That alone will make a huge difference in 2020.
There's no evidence of that. He seems to be up a couple of points among black voters (from about 8% to about 10%). It's small enough it is hard to tell if it is real but it definitely could be actual improvement. Among Latinos he seems to be right in the same 25-30% range he was in before.
No dramatic changes in either group.
Both African-American and Hispanic-American unemployment is at the lowest rate ever recorded. Trump also passed the criminal justice reform known as the First Step Act.
The criminal justice law is a solid win and it might have real effects. Hard to say right now.
Trump doesn't just tell people what they want to hear, he actually makes good, and improves their lives.
That's some good weed you have.
Trump does nothing but just tell people what they want to hear. It is what makes him a good salesman. As far as actual improvement in people's lives, that is a thing people will decide for themselves. (Lots don't think so.
https://www.ft.com/content/ce7e9f7c-fc13-11e9-a354-36acbbb0d9b6)
With how well the economy and people are doing, more people will want the trend to continue regardless if you like him or not.
Absolutely. But few people outside of his base think he is responsible for the economy doing well. It isn't doing any better than it was under Obama, it is just maintaining the trend. (Note, this is a good thing! Trump not fucking up the economy is a positive good.). If Trump can convince people that the Democrat is a risk for the economy he will get some more votes out of that, but he isn't winning new voters for not fucking up. He just didn't lose the ones he already had.
For me, that's the main point. He has absolutely done the things he needed to to hold on to most of his supporters. He isn't going to get fewer votes than last time. (I would be stunned by that.) He just hasn't done much to show he will get many more votes than last time.
He may not need them. He still has an electoral college advantage, third parties may be a big thing again, and there are all kinds of ways to suppress Democratic voters turn out. But I really don't see him winning more than 46% of the vote, much like last time.