Belicheck destroys 1st or 2nd year QB's under age of 24. All those wise guys taking the Ravens at +3.5 are bucking the trend. Pats win the game 23-17.
IMO, trends of teams and matchups are meaningless because over even a 2 year period, there is usually a lot of turnover in rosters and coaching staffs and philosophies. The only trends I ever tracked were the trends of how the oddsmakers do in particular situations. I know that home dogs cover over 50% of the time. Teams that are favoured by more than 10 cover more often than teams favoured between 7 and 10. I know that when AFC plays NFC, AFC covers more often. (My theory is that there are more big markets in the NFC, so there is more sentimental betting going on for those teams which skews the lines.)
Whatever game/team factors that we use to rationalize a pick, the oddsmakers have already taken that into account. We cannot possibly know more than they do. If you can find an oddsmaker trend that gives you even a 52-48% advantage, you probably won't find better. They are that good. I tracked about 12-15 trends of the lines for about 20 years and home dogs were consistently the best bet, but just by 3-4%
As far as tonight's trend of which you speak, I put $30 on the Ravens. I also won with the home dog KC, but fucking Vinatieri cost me the sweep. Colts were actually a sentimental, not analytical, pick. I took them because they are my son's favourite team.
