NFL Football Thread - 2019 season

K Douglas said:

Textbook playoff win for Titans. Get pressure on the QB and force turnovers. Didn't help that Baltimore's starting RB Ingram was playing hurt while Titans RB Henry is running like a man possessed. Clearly Lamar still has lots to learn about how to win in the playoffs. First loss for Ravens since September 29, 2019.

The SF throttling of Minnesota didn't surprise me in the least.

Today's games

Texans +9.5 at Chiefs. I like the Chiefs to win the game but Texans to cover the spread.

Seahawks +4 at Packers. No question GB has the home field advantage and game time temperature is expected to be 23°F with chance of snow. The key for them is protecting Rodgers from Clowney pass rush. If Seattle wants to win Wilson better be on his game because their rushing game will likely be stymied. As a Packers fan I'm hopeful that they can secure this victory but not confident about it. Because of that I will take Seattle to cover the 4. I do like the under 47.5.

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My strategy worked pretty well this week. Take the home teams, better records and an extra week of rest. I was 3-1 (including both games today) without even considering the strengths and weaknesses of each team, aside from what I already mentioned. I don't pretend to know more about the details of each team than the oddsmakers. I try to look at their trends. I made $95.

After Balt got knocked out yesterday and before today's games I put money on SF to win the SB. I figured I might get slightly better odds with 6 teams still left instead of 4. I got 1.6:1 odds, so a bet of $100 would pay out $160. They need to win 2 games and I don't have to give any damn points. I think they are class of the last 4.

khufu said:

Late in the first half with the lead at 21, the Texans were faced with a 4&1 at the Chiefs 20. The Texans elected to kick a field goal. Then with the score at 24-14 and momentum clearly in favour of the Chiefs, the Texans elected to go for a fake punt on 4&4 in their own half, which was promptly stuffed and converted into a touchdown by the Chiefs. Those plays played key role in the Chiefs stunning comeback from a 24-point deficit. So go ahead shack, I am ready for your punches

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That all sounds pretty accurate.

NFL Conference Championships

NFL Divisonal Playoffs Scores
https://www.nfl.com/scores
#6 MIN (10-6) 10 @ #1 SF (13-3) 27
SF allowed 147 total yards (fewest in playoff game in SB era)
Cousins 21/29 172 Yards 1 TD 1 INT
Garoppolo 11/19 131 Yards 1 TD 1 INT

#6 TEN (9-7) 28 @ #1 BAL (14-2) 12 - BAL What Happened?
TEN advances to the AFC Championship for the first time since 2002
Tannehill 7/14 88 Yards 2 TDs 6 CAR 13 Yards 1 TD 2.2 AVG
Henry 1/1 3 Yards 1 TD 30 CAR 195 Yards 6.5 AVG
Jackson 31/59 365 Yards 1 TD 2 INTs 20 CAR 143 Yards 7.2 AVG

#4 HOU (10-6) 31 @ #2 KC (12-4) 51 - Tale of Two Halves
HOU was up 24-0, then KC scored 41 unanswered points
KC most points scored in playoff game in franchise history
Watson 31/52 388 Yards 2 TDs 6 CAR 37 Yards 1 TD 6.2 AVG
Mahomes 23/35 321 Yards 5 TDs (YES, 5) 7 CAR 53 Yards 7.6 AVG

Chiefs run out of fireworks at Arrowhead Stadium during 51-point scoring blitz in playoff win over Texans - https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...int-scoring-blitz-in-playoff-win-over-texans/

#5 SEA (11-5) 23 @ #2 GB (13-3) 28
Adams (8/160 Yards 2 TDs) most rec Yards by GB WR in playoff game in SB era
Wilson 21/31 277 Yards 1 TD 7 CAR 64 Yards 9.1 AVG
Rodgers 16/27 243 Yards 2 TDs 5 CAR 14 Yards 2.8 AVG

NFL Conference Championships
http://www.nfl.com/schedules/2019/POST
#6 TEN (9-7) @ #2 KC (12-4) Sunday 3:05 pm CBS - Mostly Cloudy
Last Game 11/10/19 KC 32 TEN 35
League Rankings
Offense TEN 12th KC 6th
Defense TEN 21st KC 17th
Passing TEN 21st KC 5th
Rushing TEN 3rd KC 23rd

Pick KC

#2 GB (13-3) @ #1 SF(13-3) 6:40 PM FOX - Mostly Sunny
Last Game 11/24/19 GB 8 SF 37
League Rankings
Offense GB 18th SF 4th
Defense GB 18th SF 2nd
Passing GB 17th SF 13th
Rushing GB 15th SF 2nd

Pick SF



***DO YOUR JOB***

K Douglas said:

I like SF to win as well. Don't see my Packers faring well against them next weekend. The weakness with SF is their secondary so the team I'd see them having the most trouble against is KC.

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I view KC the same way, but going down by 24 to Hous shows significant weaknesses on their defense and it would be highly unlikely for KC to make that kind of comeback against Frisco.

Not a big deal, but I specifically instructed my friend (who makes the bets for me) to put in the SB bet before Sunday's results because I figured the odds would come down when just 4 teams were left instead of 6. He didn't listen and placed my bet on Monday morning and I was right and instead of getting the 1.6:1 that I'd mentioned earlier it went down to 1.5:1

khufu said:

Luke Kuechly, linebacker for the Carolina Panthers, announced his retirement from the NFL. He is only 28 years old. Praised for his ferocious hitting, he suffered multiple concussions and is a prime candidate for CTE, the debilitating brain disease caused by repeated blows to the head.

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The way RockyDarts said Bianca most likely got injured due to overtraining, I'll say that Kuechly most likely retired due to his wife bugging him (not that she's wrong). The difference between me and RockyDarts is that I can admit that I have no evidence and am just making a wild guess. Actually, I believe there is more chance that I am correct than he.

I also hope that khufu is not upset by my mention of and comparison to RockyDarts.

The spreads are currently KC by 7 and SF by 7.5

I find those a little curious as I would have expected the explosive Chiefs to be bigger faves over the overachieving Titans, than Frisco is over the Pack. Maybe 2 points more than SF instead of 1/2 point less. Gonna take some time to ponder how to interpret that (my preferred approach of analysing why the oddsmakers do what they do as opposed to analysing the teams) and see if there is any movement on the spreads. I'll probably make my bets Sat and then let you know. I know you guys are waiting with baited breath (or is it bated breath?) to see what my picks are. LOL

The spread looks right for SF but not KC.

For the Packers to have a chance Rodgers has to find his receivers and release the ball quickly, SF's young and hungry defense will close the pocket fast.

Mahomes is better at reading defenses than Jackson, if the Titans Safety blitz indiscriminately, they'll get burned on screen plays. However the Titans OL has been ripping gaping holes in opposing defenses all playoffs, which the 245lbs Derrick Henry has gratefully accepted. If it continues, he will break John Riggins playoff rushing record.

Insidious Von said:

The spread looks right for SF but not KC.

For the Packers to have a chance Rodgers has to find his receivers and release the ball quickly, SF's young and hungry defense will close the pocket fast.

Mahomes is better at reading defenses than Jackson, if the Titans Safety blitz indiscriminately, they'll get burned on screen plays. However the Titans OL has been ripping gaping holes in opposing defenses all playoffs, which the 245lbs Derrick Henry has gratefully accepted. If it continues, he will break John Riggins playoff rushing record.

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So I am not sure if you are saying that KC should be favoured by more or by less?

K Douglas said:

I'm a bit surprised that SF is not a 9.5 point favorite they are clearly a better all around team than GB. I guess maybe the oddsmakers are giving GB the Rodgers factor.
I think the KC line is about right they were exposed a bit on the defensive end last week after a few game stretch of very good defensive performances.
My picks.
1) SF -7.5. I don't see any way that GB keeps this game close unless SF comes out and shits the bed.
2) Titans +7. Their record with Tannehill under centre is 9-3. That isn't a fluke. Dangerous on the ground and in the air. I wouldn't be shocked to see them win outright tbh.

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I'm giving the points in both, but definitely not confident in either. I don't think either are locks.

From my whole season of betting this season, about 35-40 regular season games at $30/gm and 8 playoff games at $50/gm, I am up $49. That's approx. $1,500 of wagers over that time. Pretty much a break even proposition so far.

shack said:

I'm giving the points in both, but definitely not confident in either. I don't think either are locks.

From my whole season of betting this season, about 35-40 regular season games at $30/gm and 8 playoff games at $50/gm, I am up $49. That's approx. $1,500 of wagers over that time. Pretty much a break even proposition so far.

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Got through that won. Now it's time to root for the 'Niners.

shack said:

I'm giving the points in both, but definitely not confident in either. I don't think either are locks.

From my whole season of betting this season, about 35-40 regular season games at $30/gm and 8 playoff games at $50/gm, I am up $49. That's approx. $1,500 of wagers over that time. Pretty much a break even proposition so far.

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OK. 2 for 2 today and 5-1 the last two weeks and 10-4 overall in the playoffs.

I am guessing that SF will be favoured by 3.5 points.

shack said:

I am guessing that SF will be favoured by 3.5 points.

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You'd be wrong!

Kansas City -1 53.5 O/U (bet365)

NFL Super Bowl 54

NFL Conference Championships Scores
https://www.nfl.com/scores
#6 TEN (9-7) 24 @ #2 KC (12-4) 35
KC First SB appearance since 1969 (51 Years)
https://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2020011900/2019/POST3/titans@chiefs
Tannehill 21/31 209 Yards 2 TDs
Mahomes 23/35 294 Yards 3 TDs 8 CAR 53 Yards 1 TD 6.6 AVG
Watkins 7 REC 114 Yards 1 TD 10 TGTS
Hill 5 REC 67 Yards 2 TDs 7 TGTS

#2 GB (13-3) 20 @ #1 SF(13-3) 37
SF First SB appearance since 2012
https://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2020011901/2019/POST3/packers@49ers
Rodgers 31/39 326 Yards 2 TDs 2 INTs
Adams 9 REC 138 Yards 11 TGTS
Garoppolo 6/8 77 Yards (Only 8 Attempts)
Mostert 29 CAR 220 Yards 4 TDs 7.6 AVG
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...mostert-sets-multiple-playoff-rushing-records
"Mostert rushed for a career-high (to say the least) 220 yards and four touchdowns on 29 carries.
"Still surreal," Mostert said after the game. "I can't believe that I'm in this position right now and I did the things that I did tonight."
In doing so, Mostert set numerous records and etched himself into 49ers and NFL legend.
Mostert became the only player in NFL history with at least 200 rush yards and at least four rushing touchdowns in a playoff game. The RB also became just the third player to score at least four rushing TDs in a postseason game, joining LeGarrette Blount and Ricky Watters, but the first player to do so in a conference title game."

NFL Super Bowl 54 Sunday 2/2nd 6:30 PM FOX
Hard Rock Stadium Miami, FL
http://www.nfl.com/schedules/2019/POST
#1 SF(13-3) @ #2 KC (12-4)
Last Game Preseason 8/24/19 SF 27 KC 17
https://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2019082453/2019/PRE3/49ers@chiefs#tab=recap
League Rankings
Offense SF 4th KC 6th
Defense SF 2nd KC 17th
Passing SF 13th KC 5th
Rushing SF 2nd KC 23rd

Pick SF


***DO YOUR JOB***

The game between the Chiefs and Titans hinged on Mahomes picking up the Safety Blitz. He did it twice for two touchdowns. The second with Titans Safeties stuck in the backfield, he ran 30 yards for a touchdown.

Brady was too slow to adjust and Jackson too set in his ways. From what I saw, Patrick Mahomes can read what the defense gives him almost as good as Joe Montana. Let's see if he's as consistent.

gcostanza said:

You'd be wrong!

Kansas City -1 53.5 O/U (bet365)

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Interesting. that KC is favoured. I think that SF was favoured to win the SB going into the weekend. Both teams had good games.

bet365 has moved the line:

Kansas City -1.5 O/U 54

The line is proper, Mahomes is better at reading what defenses give him than Garopollo. He burned the Titans Safety Blitz for two touchdowns.