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Hong kong: Don’t provoke the dragon

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wilbur

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kstanb said:
HK is a great lesson for Taiwan. "One country, two systems" was a total sham;

of course HK didn't have any choice, but Taiwan can defend itself and it should move on with long term independence
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The mainstream press, in its ever habit of boiling things down between good guys and bad guys, white hat and black hats, doesn't tell all of the story.

The independence party of the present Taiwan President did not do so well in the last regional elections, its consituency is principally the indigenous population of Taiwan. Her hostility to China has affected trade relations, including Chinese tourism. The Kuomintang party that had power previously, has a good chance of winning the elections in a year; they represent mainly those who migrated to Taiwan from the mainland after the Nationalists lost the civil war.

The Kuomintang party that former Nationalist leader Chiang Kai Shek (Jiang JieShi) brought with him to Taiwan after losing the civil war in 1949, seeks reunification. They have been in talks with the Chinese Communist Party for at least the last 10 years. The economies of Taiwan and the PRC have moved much closer in the last 10 years: 2 million Taiwanese work on the mainland. Taiwanese investment in the mainland is significant, including the huge Foxconn factories.

The mainstream media does not tell the whole story, and is typically biased in favour of US geopolitical interests. It is not a given that Taiwan will go its own way.
 
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wilbur

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jcpro said:
I doubt it. China failed to develop an internal market despite of a strong push toward it in the last decade. The brutal truth is that, if the developed world were to close off its borders to China's exports, down goes China. It's as simple as that. It's also the only reason the Hong Kong protesters are still drawing breath.Had it not been for the potential catastrophic reaction of the West and the Trump's reset, the streets of Hong Kong would be awash in blood.
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You keep living in the past. I didn't say that China had already transformed its economy to internal consumption; it is a work in progress. I said that the government has been pushing for internal consumerism by making key changes to social welfare. I didn't say it's a done deal, only that the change is happening very fast.

https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/2019/01/24/chinas-online-sales-grew-almost-24-in-2018/


"Online retail sales in China totaled about $1.33 trillion (just over 9.00 trillion yuan) in 2018, an increase of 23.90% compared with 2017, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, a government agency. Of that total, sales of physical goods were $1.03 trillion (7.00 trillion yuan), up by 25.40%. Online sales of physical goods accounted for 18.40% of the total retail sales of physical consumer goods, up 3.4 percentage points, the agency reported."

They will surpass the US in domestic consumer sales in a couple of years.
 
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jcpro

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wilbur said:
You keep living in the past. I didn't say that China had already transformed its economy to internal consumption; it is a work in progress. I said that the government has been pushing for internal consumerism by making key changes to social welfare. I didn't say it's a done deal, only that the change is happening very fast.

https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/2019/01/24/chinas-online-sales-grew-almost-24-in-2018/


"Online retail sales in China totaled about $1.33 trillion (just over 9.00 trillion yuan) in 2018, an increase of 23.90% compared with 2017, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, a government agency. Of that total, sales of physical goods were $1.03 trillion (7.00 trillion yuan), up by 25.40%. Online sales of physical goods accounted for 18.40% of the total retail sales of physical consumer goods, up 3.4 percentage points, the agency reported."

They will surpass the US in domestic consumer sales in a couple of years.
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Firstly, internal Chinese numbers are suspect. Secondly, we're talking here about a marketplace of over one billion consumers. The numbers will always be large, which doesn't mean that the domestic market is large enough to sustain the Chinese output. Their resistance to the push by America (and not only) to curtail dumping says otherwise. Their currency devaluation and attempts by the government to fill the investment gap point to the country very much dependant on the export trade. Btw, why shouldn't they surpass the US in domestic consumer sales? After all, US has third of their population. It's the per capita earnings and spendings that count.
 
WyattEarp

WyattEarp

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wilbur said:
The mainstream press, in its ever habit of boiling things down between good guys and bad guys, white hat and black hats, doesn't tell all of the story.

The independence party of the present Taiwan President did not do so well in the last regional elections, its consituency is principally the indigenous population of Taiwan. Her hostility to China has affected trade relations, including Chinese tourism. The Kuomintang party that had power previously, has a good chance of winning the elections in a year; they represent mainly those who migrated to Taiwan from the mainland after the Nationalists lost the civil war.

The Kuomintang party that former Nationalist leader Chiang Kai Shek (Jiang JieShi) brought with him to Taiwan after losing the civil war in 1949, seeks reunification. They have been in talks with the Chinese Communist Party for at least the last 10 years. The economies of Taiwan and the PRC have moved much closer in the last 10 years: 2 million Taiwanese work on the mainland. Taiwanese investment in the mainland is significant, including the huge Foxconn factories.

The mainstream media does not tell the whole story, and is typically biased in favour of US geopolitical interests. It is not a given that Taiwan will go its own way.
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I'm not sure why you would push this idea the Taiwanese population is strongly interested in reunification. Regional elections are all fine and good, but the party in power generally has their control eroded during election cycles. The DPP still controls the Presidency and has an overwhelming majority in the national legislature.

The Taiwanese I know respect the importance of China in the region. They have, however, no immediate desire for reunification. It's a balancing act the Taiwanese have to preserve. That is what you are probably interpreting in the politics a pro-reunification bias. I would say there is a big difference between supporting good relations with China/Chinese business and being pro-reunification. It's very likely the KMT will tone down reunification rhetoric in the 2020 elections.
 
WyattEarp

WyattEarp

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wilbur said:
The Soviet Union went broke as it couldn't keep up with the arms race. The money that should have gone to consumers and services was instead diverted heavily towards the armed forces and the weapons industry.

The US even bragged about it.

If there was discontent at the time, it was due to the lack of consumer goods and a lower standard of living.
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I think this was a part of the Reagan Myth building. While there was some truth to it, the Soviets tired of maintaining their empire. The Soviet satellites were pushing back. The Soviet people tired of the corruption and lack of freedoms.

The analysis on fall of the USSR is far more complicated than overspending on the arms race. If that was the only issue the Soviets could have simply turned their resources on producing more consumer goods. They also still had powerful means to coerce the Soviet population via the police state.

I think the Chinese economy is an incredible achievement and it will likely bring relative prosperity to hundreds of millions more Chinese. As far as the Chinese one party state, I'm not entirely convinced of its long-term future and its ability to maintain consensus. I dismiss the idea that government planning long-range or otherwise can smooth the bumps in the economic road.
 
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jcpro

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WyattEarp said:
I think this was a part of the Reagan Myth building. While there was some truth to it, the Soviets tired of maintaining their empire. The Soviet satellites were pushing back. The Soviet people tired of the corruption and lack of freedoms.

The fall of the USSR is far more complicated than overspending on the arms race. If that was the issue the Soviets could have simply turned their resources on producing more consumer goods. They also still had powerful means to coerce the Soviet population via the police state.

I think the Chinese economy is an incredible achievement and it will likely bring relative prosperity to hundreds of millions more Chinese. As far as the Chinese one party state, I'm not entirely convinced of its long-term future and its ability to maintain consensus. I dismiss the idea that government planning long-range or otherwise can smooth the bumps in the economic road.
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Don't buy that myth that it was within the Soviet power to solve their economic problems. Because that's all it is, a myth. The Soviet Union collapsed because Gorbachev brought down the wall of fear. Once the powers of repression were blunted, there was no way of stopping the collapse. With the massive expansion of the Western economies during the eighties, the Eastern Block peoples, for the first time, discovered themselves to be a part of the Third World- despite of the decades of promises and assurances by the party nomenclatures to the contrary. I was there for that: the sudden realization by the majority that everything around them was an illusion and that there was no way out of it- except eating their leaders. Simply, another revolution was on the way and the communists decided that it was better to keep living, so they threw in the towel.
 
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harryass

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them commie corrupt dipshit dictators had plans of taking over HK eventually. Killing anyone that gets in their way is the way they do biz and make more money.
 
WyattEarp

WyattEarp

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jcpro said:
Don't buy that myth that it was within the Soviet power to solve their economic problems. Because that's all it is, a myth.
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That wasn't really the point of my post. I agree with your thoughts on this. I'm just disputing Wilbur's belief that the fall of the Soviet Union was all about running out of money and overspending on military armament.

In many instances, Asian autocracies have ushered successful market-oriented investment and export booms. That's the easy part of development. The next phase of getting to a consumer-driven economy is the larger challenge. You can believe in government planning or you cannot. The Asian autocracies that have developed economically have been pressured internally to cede their unquestioned authority and their use of the government apparatus to force compliance.
 
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jcpro

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WyattEarp said:
That wasn't really the point of my post. I agree with your thoughts on this. I'm just disputing Wilbur's belief that the fall of the Soviet Union was all about running out of money and overspending on military armament.

In many instances, Asian autocracies have ushered successful market-oriented investment and export booms. That's the easy part of development. The next phase of getting to a consumer-driven economy is the larger challenge. You can believe in government planning or you cannot. The Asian autocracies that have developed economically have been pressured internally to cede their unquestioned authority and their use of the government apparatus to force compliance.
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The Chinese have an unspoken social compact between the people and the Party as it emerged post Mao's departure and the ascendancy of Deng. The Party will create prosperity and orderly society and the people will let them lead. The bad thing about this approach is that it has no safety valve. The safety valve being an election that turfs the government that presides over the economic downturn. In the event of a bad economic downturn, China will go straight into a civil conflict because challenging of the Party's leading role is the ultimate act of disobedience under EVERY communist flavour. That's why I'm unconcerned about the predicted Chinese hegemony. The Chinese socioeconomic model has a landmine implanted at its core and, sooner or later, it will go off.
 
WyattEarp

WyattEarp

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The Communist Party's decision to adopt market mechanisms was a very smart, pragmatic decision. I love Deng's quote. "It doesn't matter whether the cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice." I, however, do not believe the Party has created the perfect market system with a dose of planning that can smooth out downturns. That's been proven to be hubris over and over again around the world. The cat will get tired and have to rest.

There are some prognosticators who think China is just an empire with strong regional, ethnic and linguistic identification lying under the surface. This could contribute to disintegration of autocratic control and possibly a break-up of China. I'm not sure I believe that. Most Mainland Chinese, not all, I know have strong cultural bonds to Beijing as both the cultural and political center of the Chinese people. Sure, there are some outlying regions that do not necessarily consider themselves Chinese.
 
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explorerzip

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wilbur said:
The large property developers bear some responsibility for this, placing profits before social welfare.
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It's not the property developers responsibility to look after social welfare. It's the government's job to look after it. They clearly have not been doing it in Hong Kong for decades by putting business interests over social interests.
 
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danmand

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oil&gas

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Ghawar
Darts said:
Taiwan is protected by the legendary U.S. 7th Fleet.
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Who do you think was the protector of HK before
1997? Who saved HK from takeover by China in 1949
when the ruling Kuomintang party fled the mainland?
Who shielded HK from a potential influx of refugees
from the mainland during the massive famine around
1960 when millions were dying of starvation? Who
saved HK from freshwater scarcity in the 60's? There
was a time circa 1964 when water supply in HK was
rationed. People only had like a few hours over 4 days
to turn on the water tap. During the 1967
riot in HK which coincided with the cultural revolution
the red guard were braced to take over HK by force.
Who saved HK from invasion by Mao's red guard?
Also note that until the 1970's HK was nowhere as
affluent as it is today. With a population of 3 million
squeezed into a small area with little natural
resources how did they manage to be well fed
compared with people in the mainland? Surely
there must be a guardian angel watching HK
over the years to its prosperity.
 
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wilbur

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explorerzip said:
It's not the property developers responsibility to look after social welfare. It's the government's job to look after it. They clearly have not been doing it in Hong Kong for decades by putting business interests over social interests.
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The chief executive clearly represents HK business interests, since she was selected by the functional constituency. This is the 1200 HK trade, professional, various corporate and (yes) religious organizations that also elect 28 members of the legislature.

In other words, the HK people are pissed off that, despite that there are 40 representatived elected by the people, the Chief Executive is really answerable to the 28 minority legislators that selected her.

But that's how the British colonials designed it back in 1984, except that the British governor was elected by nobody. 1997 saw that system incorporated into the Basic Law, except that HK business and other interests would select the Chief Executive.

Notice the term 'executive' instead of 'President' or 'Chairman'. It was clearly to reflect the corporate influence on the HK government, including the HK oligarchy, and that was to ensure the preservation of wealthy interests under British rule, and then under self-rule.
 
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basketcase

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Typical Dan post. Let the China do what they want because they are anti-US and allegedly communist and suggest it is really the US's fault.
 
WyattEarp

WyattEarp

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basketcase said:
Typical Dan post. Let the China do what they want because they are anti-US and allegedly communist and suggest it is really the US's fault.
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From my experience, Hong Kongers identify far more with Britain and British Commonwealth members than the United States. They also consider themselves culturally Chinese. It's not a cliché when people say Hong Kong is where East meets West. These are real people with hopes and fears. I hope people would see that this is not about the U.S. versus China.
 
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explorerzip

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WyattEarp said:
From my experience, Hong Kongers identify far more with Britain and British Commonwealth members than the United States. They also consider themselves culturally Chinese. It's not a cliché when people say Hong Kong is where East meets West. These are real people with hopes and fears. I hope people would see that this is not about the U.S. versus China.
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There is a distinct difference though in mainland Chinese and Hong Kong culture. It's that culture war more than anything else that is driving much of this rage. The middle-class in the mainland have grown substantially in the last decade or so. At the same time, they haven't quite learned the Western customs because they basically were peasants no so long ago. Hongkongers take such customs for granted. Under the communist system mainland Chinese people are used to being pushy or hoarding anything they can get. Those values are incompatible with Hong Kong culture and it's created a lot of tension especially since they opened the Hong Kong Macau Bridge. Neighborhoods near the bridge now have to deal with scores of obnoxious and pushy mainland tourists, which feeds further resentment and fear.
 
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