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Hong kong: Don’t provoke the dragon

danmand

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HONG KONG: DON’T PROVOKE THE DRAGON
by Eric Margolis
August 17, 2019

Time was when flying to Hong Kong was a really big thrill – or maybe scare would be a better term. Its old airport, Kai Tak, was right in the middle of bustling downtown Hong Kong. Flying into Kai Tak used up 11 of one’s 12 lives.

The wide-bodied jumbo aircraft would drop down into a long fjord that was usually shrouded in fog or mist. The nervous passenger would see nothing but cloud. Suddenly, the aircraft would break out of the thick cloud cover right over the airport.

To the left and right were apartment buildings festooned with drying laundry at the same height as one’s plane. The big 747 airliner landed with a huge thud and screaming tires right in front of another bunch of apartment buildings.

Even for veteran air travelers like myself, this was a heart-stopping experience. Amazingly, I recall only one crash at Kai Tak, which we used to call ‘Suicide Airport.’ Still, it was like landing a jumbo-jet on New York’s Park Avenue. Not for the faint of heart.

In 1998, Kai Tak was closed and replaced by the modern, spacious Chek Lap Kok, better known as Hong Kong International. It quickly became one of Asia’s principal aviation hubs.

This week, Hong Kong airport was besieged and shut down by thousands of young local demonstrators protesting China’s attempt to impose a new extradition law on Hong Kong that would allow Beijing to arrest Hong Kong residents for ‘anti-state’ activities. The deal that Hong Kong’s former colonial Britain signed with China calls for ‘two-states, one nation,’ with considerable independence for the former island colony.

But anyone who thinks China’s iron-fisted rulers will allow a scrap of paper to limit their influence over Hong Kong is dead wrong. For them, Hong Kong is as much a part of China as Shanghai. So, too, is Taiwan.

The massive rioting in Hong Kong earlier this week set off alarm bells in Beijing, which runs an Orwellian police state on the mainland. China’s hardline leaders rightly fear that the fracas in Hong Kong could incite other uprisings across China. Everyone remembers the long, bloody Cultural Revolution of the 1970’s with its rampaging Red Guards.

Perhaps more important, Chinese leaders study their nation’s history and draw lessons from it, unlike America’s history-free politicians. For the Americans, history is what was on Fox TV the week before.

What Beijing really fears is another Taiping Rebellion. A nobody named Hong Xiuqan proclaimed himself the brother of Jesus and raised a vast peasant army to overthrow the ruling Manchu dynasty in Beijing. Brutal civil war raged from 1850-1864 in which up to 100 million are believed to have been killed or died of famine.

If this sounds completely crazy, think of all the Republican sycophants that call President Trump the reincarnation of the ancient Hebrew Queen Esther or a ‘Christian warrior.’ Bizarre behavior and beliefs are universal.

China has warned the rioting Hong Kong students to cease their protests or face intervention by Beijing’s tough paramilitary police, which backs up the regular People’s Army. Chinese armed police and soldiers are massing just across the border in Shenzhen, a mere taxi ride from downtown Hong Kong.

If the Hong Kong students are not wise, they risk winding up in China’s penal camps, the ‘laogai.’ Large numbers of Muslim Uighurs from Xinjiang have been locked away in China’s western laogai.

The airport riots now appear over but continue in Hong Kong’s streets. If the People’s Police or Liberation Army do intervene in Hong Kong to impose China’s iron hand, they could spark another Tiananmen Square bloodbath. But once Beijing’s forces impose martial law on Hong Kong its days of autonomy will be over.

The type of repression China imposed on Tibet and Muslim regions could be repeated in Hong Kong. There is absolutely nothing any of the world’s powers can do about it. China will then turn its attention to ‘renegade province’ Taiwan. Western politicians can huff and puff all they like but they are powerless to change the tide of events in Hong Kong.

Copyright Eric S Margolis 2019
 

jcpro

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LOL! That's what they used to say about the Soviet Union: don't poke the bear! The detente "experts" were all wrong; every single one of them. Including Margolis.
 

danmand

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LOL! That's what they used to say about the Soviet Union: don't poke the bear! The detente "experts" were all wrong; every single one of them. Including Margolis.
You must think that Americans want to die for the sake of Hong Kong. Think again.
 

whiteshaft

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I think I had read somewhere that the Hong Kong riots was caused or assisted by American (Trump) infiltrations? Geeze just can't remember where I got that from...:doh:
 

wilbur

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I think I had read somewhere that the Hong Kong riots was caused or assisted by American (Trump) infiltrations? Geeze just can't remember where I got that from...:doh:
https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2139011/us-group-leads-rest-global-interference

Trump does not control the US deep state. But he's on the verge of cleaning it out, as a result of the latest allegations of the deep state involvement with undermining his campaign and presidency with bogus Russian collusion allegations.
 

jcpro

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You must think that Americans want to die for the sake of Hong Kong. Think again.
Soviet Union went down without any Americans dying.
 

wilbur

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China was under no obligation to give HK special status in 1997. It could have simply incorporated it into its political and legal system.

But it gave special status for 2 reasons:

In 1997, HK was 25% of China's GDP, and was China's economic gateway to the outside world. And China was considered a third world country then.
China hoped to entice Taiwan to rejoin China under the same special status they gave HK: one country, two systems.

It was also of benefit to the British: they got to keep their economic links with Asia, through their well established presence in HK.

Nowadays, HK represents only 3% of China's GDP, and its been dwarfed by the rise of Shanghai and Shenzhen. China doesn't really need to depend on HK anymore.

It China decides to intervene in HK to restore order, it's going to backfire very badly on the protesters: there's lots of room in China's re-education camps. The leaders and the activists have likely been identified. HK could also lose some of its autonomy.

The source of the unrest is the very high property values in HK. Large numbers of young adults have to live with their parents, or else share tiny appartments and live in cubicles, because the rents are so high; In Chinese culture, its difficult to get married if you don't own a 'house'. There is social housing, but its run down and too limited. The large property developers bear some responsibility for this, placing profits before social welfare. They run HK through the Chief Executive; in fact, the CE position is nominated by the functional constituency, largely dominated by big business (not Beijing). The British invented and set up this quasi democratic system to maintain and protect their own business interests.

So it's ironic for some demonstrators to brandish the HK colonial flag, in an apparent wish to go back to the old days, when the British granted even less democracy than they have now.
 

wilbur

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Soviet Union went down without any Americans dying.
The Soviet Union went broke. China is not broke. At least, the US with it's massive 23 trillion dollar federal debt, and its 70 trillion worth of State liabilities, is going to go broke well before China.
 

oil&gas

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Apr 16, 2002
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Ghawar
Soviet Union went down without any Americans dying.
In the history of imperial China since its
first emperor chaos and destruction on massive
scale followed every time the central government
was overthrown. The 1911 revolution at first looked
to be an exception when a new government was
established promptly. It didn't take long before
civil war broke out in a couple of years and continue
for another 3 decades. No Americans may need
to die for PRC to be brought down
but millions of lives in the mainland and HK
would perish before stability is restored.
 

jcpro

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The Soviet Union went broke. China is not broke. At least, the US with it's massive 23 trillion dollar federal debt, and its 70 trillion worth of State liabilities, is going to go broke before China.
I doubt it. China failed to develop an internal market despite of a strong push toward it in the last decade. The brutal truth is that, if the developed world were to close off its borders to China's exports, down goes China. It's as simple as that. It's also the only reason the Hong Kong protesters are still drawing breath.Had it not been for the potential catastrophic reaction of the West and the Trump's reset, the streets of Hong Kong would be awash in blood.
 

kstanb

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HK is a great lesson for Taiwan. "One country, two systems" was a total sham;

of course HK didn't have any choice, but Taiwan can defend itself and it should move on with long term independence
 

danmand

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I doubt it. China failed to develop an internal market despite of a strong push toward it in the last decade. The brutal truth is that, if the developed world were to close off its borders to China's exports, down goes China. It's as simple as that. It's also the only reason the Hong Kong protesters are still drawing breath.Had it not been for the potential catastrophic reaction of the West and the Trump's reset, the streets of Hong Kong would be awash in blood.
I think you should revosit your data. Chins export. $2.4T , vs $27T GDP.

China is the worlds biggest marketplace. Amerivan higj tech cpmpanies cannot exist witout it.
 

WyattEarp

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May 17, 2017
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The Soviet Union went broke. China is not broke. At least, the US with it's massive 23 trillion dollar federal debt, and its 70 trillion worth of State liabilities, is going to go broke well before China.
The Soviet Union didn't go broke. The Soviet empire disintegrated and collapsed due to widespread disenchantment. The only way for the Soviets to have held it together was to undertake unbearable violence on its own "citizens" and its satellites.
 

WyattEarp

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I think you should revosit your data. Chins export. $2.4T , vs $27T GDP.
Some have Chinese exports pegged at 20% of GDP. That would still make China an export-reliant economy.

If you notice, the significant drop after the crash of 2008 from a level in the mid-30%. That's an important inflection point in the attached chart. The Chinese government went on a major spending spree after 2008. As is typical in developing countries, investment is a key factor for growth and development.

The problem is the increase in domestic consumption and investment is neither organic nor sustainable. Export-reliance isn't usually the real problem for an economy, but rather underlying over-investment. China is an investment driven economy. China is not defined as a consumption economy.

For a bit of a historical reference, Japan hit an investment wall around 1990. Some of Japan's ensuing stagnation after 1990 was aggravated by demographics. I believe China has some demographic issues as well.

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/China/Exports/
 

danmand

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Some have Chinese exports pegged at 20% of GDP. That would still make China an export-reliant economy.

If you notice, the significant drop after the crash of 2008 from a level in the mid-30%. That's an important inflection point in the attached chart. The Chinese government went on a major spending spree after 2008. As is typical in developing countries, investment is a key factor for growth and development.

The problem is the increase in domestic consumption and investment is neither organic nor sustainable. Export-reliance isn't usually the real problem for an economy, but rather underlying over-investment. China is an investment driven economy. China is not defined as a consumption economy.

For a bit of a historical reference, Japan hit an investment wall around 1990. Some of Japan's ensuing stagnation after 1990 was aggravated by demographics. I believe China has some demographic issues as well.

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/China/Exports/
The data says it is less than 10%. Some have their beliefs.
 

jcpro

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Some have Chinese exports pegged at 20% of GDP. That would still make China an export-reliant economy.

If you notice, the significant drop after the crash of 2008 from a level in the mid-30%. That's an important inflection point in the attached chart. The Chinese government went on a major spending spree after 2008. As is typical in developing countries, investment is a key factor for growth and development.

The problem is the increase in domestic consumption and investment is neither organic nor sustainable. Export-reliance isn't usually the real problem for an economy, but rather underlying over-investment. China is an investment driven economy. China is not defined as a consumption economy.

For a bit of a historical reference, Japan hit an investment wall around 1990. Some of Japan's ensuing stagnation after 1990 was aggravated by demographics. I believe China has some demographic issues as well.

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/China/Exports/
Correct. The big difference is, Japan got rich BEFORE it hit a demographic wall and it managed to develop self sustaining domestic market.
 

WyattEarp

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Correct. The big difference is, Japan got rich BEFORE it hit a demographic wall and it managed to develop self sustaining domestic market.
There has certainly been a lot of positive things that have happened to China's economy. There will likely be a lot of positive things to happen in the future.

I think you and I agree there will be significant bumps in the road and challenges. Government planning has never been able avoid this inevitable pain. It's ironic that some think the Chinese government will be the first government in history to pull off this miracle. The reality: the market economy has created China's economic miracle.

PS- Overinvestment triggered the Lost Decade (or even the Lost 20 years) in Japan. Demographics became the wall.
 

onthebottom

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wilbur

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The Soviet Union didn't go broke. The Soviet empire disintegrated and collapsed due to widespread disenchantment. The only way for the Soviets to have held it together was to undertake unbearable violence on its own "citizens" and its satellites.
The Soviet Union went broke as it couldn't keep up with the arms race. The money that should have gone to consumers and services was instead diverted heavily towards the armed forces and the weapons industry.

The US even bragged about it.

If there was discontent at the time, it was due to the lack of consumer goods and a lower standard of living.

Interestingly enough, I recently asked a person from Azerbaijan whether life was better during the Soviet era or now. He said life was better under the Soviet Union: people had jobs, were not overly concerned with money and were happier in general. Now it's a rat race.
 
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