Seat projection shows Trudeau Liberals could still win the most Federal seats

Keep up the good work Quebec. Just a matter of time when this SNC Lavalin nonsense is water under the bridge, then the Liberals can take take back their majorities in the other Provinces!!

With six months to go before the upcoming federal election, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party is likely to win — but not by a majority.

The seat projection was developed using a blend of polls from Nanos, Forum, Angus Reid, Leger and Mainstreet conducted between mid-March and mid-April.

Collectively, this included over 15,000 individual interviews, although companies using the IVR (robocall) format were down-weighted in the process.

The seat projection was put together by the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP) at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ont.

The accompanying table indicated that the Liberal Party has dropped some 30 seats since the previous LISPOP projection six months ago. The Conservatives have made comparable gains during the period, and it produces the prospect of a minority government for the Liberals.



Liberal support has eroded in every region except Quebec, where they dominate and maintain a 17-per cent lead in the popular vote over the Conservatives.

By contrast, support levels in Ontario are a virtual dead heat between the parties.

The SNC-Lavalin controversy is clearly associated with the Liberal decline outside Quebec, but the Conservative narrative has as yet been unable to create a sustainable wave in their direction.

Here’s a breakdown of the seat projection by region.



https://globalnews.ca/news/5191123/federal-election-seat-projection-trudeau-liberals-minority/

Well it is quite possible that the Liberals could try and form a Coalition Government with the NDP. How else will the NDP ever have a say in the Federal Government Politics.

Moviefan-2 said:

It's quite a reach to say the Liberal party is "likely" to win.

The seat projection may be valid based on current polling but the election is still months away. While a Liberal re-election is certainly a real possibility, no one can say anything is "likely" at this point.

It's also worth taking a look at Ipsos' numbers on the issues that matter most to Canadians, particularly in crucial ridings in the suburbs.

In a presentation last week, Darrell Bricker of Ipsos said the carbon tax could be a significant problem for the Liberals as people care more about high taxes and the cost of living than "climate change." People don't believe carbon taxes will do anything beneficial for the planet and Trudeau's post-SNC-Lavalin credibility challenge probably adds to the skepticism.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ro8GaEWtMR0

The premiers who are campaigning against the carbon tax may be on to something.

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It was quite a uphill task for the Trudeau Government last year after the India trip. But the alternative was a baby Scheer who is a clone of Harper. Harper is an albatross that wraps around the Conservative party, so Trudeau then climbed up again in the popularity and Liberal Party Polls. There are many more Canadians that believe in Climate Change, something that the right wingers on this Board are living in denial as to that aspect. Scheer always states that he will repeal the Carbon Tax but has an alternative to reducing the Carbon Emissions. But he is all hush, hush about it. Why??? No one can explain that fact. Would not expect to get that response from the right wingers as they all live in denial to that fact that Climate Change is real, and not surreal as they state so. So please elaborate what this so call Carbon Emissions reduction under Scheer is all about!! We have the right wingers who are very confused about it anyway, but they do not have a Party that supports their Climate Change Denial views. But they blindly support Scheer, irrespective of what he stands for.

Then again, before you trash the Trudeau Carbon Tax, which are being offset by Credits which I say Thank You in gratitude, please state how the Baby Scheer Alternative will be offered that actually does not withdraw those credits and will penalize the Carbon Emission offenders!!

Moviefan-2 said:

I don't recall Doug Ford presenting an "alternative" to carbon pricing in last year's provincial election. Yet Ford was the only candidate talking about the issue on a consistent basis and he won the election.

There may very well be something to what author and columnist George Monbiot once wrote -- people will tell pollsters they support government taking "action" on climate change while privately hoping the government does nothing. Indeed, liberals in Washington state were among those who rejected carbon taxes in the mid-term elections last year.

As for the assertion that it is only "right wingers" who question the effectiveness of carbon taxes, I challenge the conclusion that Bill McKibben of 350.org is a "right winger":

https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1100225603963

McKibben and the other pipeline opponents don't seem all that "right wing" to me. :biggrin1:

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You are not up with reality, are you??

https://globalnews.ca/news/4710422/ontario-government-climate-change-plan/

Obviously, I have to remind you that they want to also reduce the carbon emissions albeit without any concrete plans. But again, is there a Federal Party that thinks that Global carbon Emissions are a hoax?? Please tell me who they are and maybe I can "vote" for them. :bump2:

BTW your link is all about a Pipeline!!

Moviefan-2 said:

That story is from November 2018. In case you've forgotten, the election was in June 2018. "Reality" tells me that November normally comes sometime after June. :thumb:

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The point is not about the "elections", but purely the so called alternative to the "carbon tax" that they keep on repeating that they will replace it with. Obviously you missed that point. Maybe you will be able to present this so called alternative. Ohh I forgot that all the right wingers do not believe in Climate Change in the first place!!

Moviefan-2 said:

Check out the part at about the six-minute mark, where McKibben says there aren't enough Canadians for demand-side measures (which include carbon taxes) to make any real difference to global emissions.

In fact, the reduction is statistically meaningless in a country where total emissions from everything only come to about 1.5% of the global total. If you round off the microscopic percentage decrease from the carbon tax to the nearest number, it comes to a 0% reduction in global emissions.

As I have said before, when I say it does "nothing" for global emissions, I'm not using the word figuratively. I mean it literally.

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Your link was a presentation by Dr Darrell Bricker, a former member of the Mulroney Government. Not sure what you are referring to!!

There is evidence that Carbon Taxes have decreased the carbon emissions in countries that have implemented it. Britain is an example:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/02/climate/pricing-carbon-emissions.html

Once again the majority of Canadians are in favour of action against Global Warming. But the right wingers on this Board are Global Warming Deniers.