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How Horwath's blunders paved the way for Ford's election victory

Charlemagne

Well-known member
Jul 19, 2017
15,451
2,483
113
Looks like The NDP gave away the election, which is why were in the situation that were in right now.



CityNews exclusive: How Horwath's blunders paved the way for Ford's election victory

BY CYNTHIA MULLIGAN

POSTED JAN 16, 2019 3:14 PM EST

LAST UPDATED JAN 16, 2019 AT 7:05 PM EST

He has been in power at Queen’s Park for over six months after winning a convincing majority. But shortly before the election, for about two weeks, Doug Ford’s team thought he was going to lose.

CityNews has obtained internal polling done by the Tory campaign, which pinpoints key moments that helped Doug Ford become premier.

On June 12, Ford was basking in election victory. But just over two weeks earlier, his team was worried. Their numbers show that for about nine days, from May 23 to 31, Andrea Horwath was eclipsing him.

But a path to victory usually coincides with an opponents’ path to defeat. This last election was no exception.

The PC polling shows Horwath, who had been steadily climbing in the polls, made a series of decisions and one big fumble that led to her defeat.

On May 20, Horwath had a 24-per-cent approval rating compared to Doug Ford’s 31 per cent. This is the day she admitted she made a $1.4-billion math error in her platform.

She also defended NDP candidates with controversial views, like Laura Kaminker, who once said she refuses to wear a poppy for Remembrance Day.

On May 21, Horwath said she would close the Pickering nuclear power plant, angering voters in the 905.

And on May 22, she said she wouldn’t use back-to-work legislation to end strikes.

“What happened with Horwath, is the public looked and then she stumbled and then she fell,” pollster John Wright told CityNews.

“What’s fascinating is it was self-inflicted. Andrea Horwath was in the grasp of maybe a minority and then it was all self-inflicted.”

Despite that, Horwath was bouncing back, with many voters still unsure about Doug Ford as premier. Until May 28.

That’s when Ford introduced his bench strength, showing off his star candidates — in particular Christine Elliott and Caroline Mulroney. Ford’s internal polling shows that’s when his numbers started to go up, pushing him above Horwath.

“It was a really good manoeuvre,” Wright said. “It actually also gave Ford a chance to be with women — strong women — and that was also a turning point.”

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2019/01/16/pc-polling-doug-ford/
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
79,760
17,578
113
Apparently its better to lie your face off with your promises then give realistic ones.

$1 dollar beer
lower hydro rates
lower taxes
lower the deficit
 

jcpro

Well-known member
Jan 31, 2014
24,673
6,836
113
Nah, it was the Russians or the Macedonian data farmers.
 

nottyboi

Well-known member
May 14, 2008
22,447
1,325
113
Horwath is just not very bright..that is the reality. She also has bad advisors.
 

saxon

Well-known member
Dec 2, 2009
4,748
508
113
Horwath just doesn’t get it. Her platform of free post secondary school education, free daycare, free dental care, free pharma care will cost billions and that means massive tax increases. Ontario voters will never accept that.
 

trainII

New member
Nov 27, 2018
73
0
0
I guess are saying her platform was unpopular and when the people finally realized what the NDP stood for and what they would do if elected they said no thanks.
 

Ref

Committee Member
Oct 29, 2002
5,058
1,003
113
web.archive.org
Some would have you believe the Liberals lost because of a right wing media assault on Wynne.
They could have had the Alt Left attack her and the result would have been the same. The entire province was sick and tired of 15 years of Liberal bullshit and kicked them to the curb.

No one group had any impact, the Liberals were able to do that all by themselves.
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
10,489
170
63
Horwath was doing well when she was seen as the nice lady who wants everyone to have free dental care, free tuition, etc.

But once she went up in the polls, more attention was paid to some of her more questionable policies. For example, her nutty plan to close the Pickering nuclear plant by summer 2018 and her pledge that she would never use legislation to end a strike in the public sector.

There was also the fact that a number of her candidates were revealed to be total wingnuts. Ford had some questionable candidates, as well, but he was fortunate that he also had some solid candidates that he could promote. Horwath's slate seemed to be mostly comprised of people with some pretty wild opinions.

All that said, I think the City-TV story is wrong.

Horwath's support wasn't that "efficient," as the pollsters say. It was concentrated in certain areas (eg., downtown Toronto) while Ford's candidates were still leading in ridings that mattered, such as the ridings in the 905.

Even at the height of Horwath-mania, the CBC's poll tracker still showed Ford with a greater than 75% chance of winning a majority government.
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
10,489
170
63
Interesting update: Christina Blizzard had a column in the Sunday Sun that said it's time for Horwath to step down as leader. As Blizzard says:

If Horwath couldn’t win last June, she’ll never win.
https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/blizzard-hey-hey-ho-ho-andrea-horwath-has-to-go

Indeed.

It's almost impossible to imagine how the landscape could ever be better for Horwath than it was in June 2018, when she made her third attempt as party leader to win an election.

In fact, the polling shows the Liberals who temporarily abandoned their party for the NDP last spring because of Kathleen Wynne's historic unpopularity have now returned to their party. The NDP is now back in third place in the polls.

Horwath had her best chance to form government last year and she came up short.
 

Ref

Committee Member
Oct 29, 2002
5,058
1,003
113
web.archive.org
Horwath will be kicked to the curb before the next provincial election.

I still get a chuckle out her celebrating losing the election like she won. "We came in second, we came in second!"
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
10,489
170
63
Horwath will be kicked to the curb before the next provincial election.
I'm not so sure. As Blizzard noted in her column, Horwath benefits from the fact no one seems too eager to take over as leader.

Perhaps that will change as Ontario gets closer to the next election and a number of the MPPs face the prospect of losing their seats.
 

Ref

Committee Member
Oct 29, 2002
5,058
1,003
113
web.archive.org
Perhaps that will change as Ontario gets closer to the next election and a number of the MPPs face the prospect of losing their seats.
Or if the Unions want the change. They will carry more weight in the NDP than what Horwath has packed on.

That is unless the new Liberal leader runs to the unions like McGuinty and Wynn did.
 
Ashley Madison
Toronto Escorts