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Trump chickens coming home to roost.

essguy_

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If you by IP (opposed to technology, i.e. patents etc) you mean music and films, etc. I agree.

But Trump's trade dispute is about manufacturing. My point is that you cannot move manufacturing, support and development of product to China without giving China access to the technological know how and IP.

Trump should fight with the American companies that moved their operations to China, instead of fighting China.

When was the last time a TV was manufactured in USA?
I meant all intellectual property - including technology transfers and also just stuff like fake merchandise. TPP (which Bone Spurs rejected) contained very strong IP protection measures. IF the US had signed, China had already signalled that they would at least study joining. And they would have been surrounded by countries who had signed. But Trump trashed it, for the dumbest reason. (and worse - said that he wants back in after disrupting the entire process).
 

danmand

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Nov 28, 2003
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I meant all intellectual property - including technology transfers and also just stuff like fake merchandise. TPP (which Bone Spurs rejected) contained very strong IP protection measures. IF the US had signed, China had already signalled that they would at least study joining. And they would have been surrounded by countries who had signed. But Trump trashed it, for the dumbest reason. (and worse - said that he wants back in after disrupting the entire process).
Sure, fake merchandise is bad for Vuitton and Gucci, but that is not what destroyed Fly over America.

Trump and his advisers do not understand the reasons USA has a trade deficit. USA does not manufacture much the world wants to buy.

When is the last time you bought something made in USA?
 

lumenon9

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Feb 6, 2006
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Ray Dalio: Losing 'Reserve Status' Would Lead To 30% Drop In The Dollar

Mon, 11/19/2018 - 15:00

During a live interview with Barry Ritholtz for his "Masters In Business" podcast on Monday, Bridgewater Associates CEO - who has been on a seemingly never-ending media tour to promote his new free e-book "A Template For Understanding Big Debt Crises" - once again expounded upon his "1937" markets thesis: That is, his theory that the US economy increasingly resembles the late-cycle dynamic from the 1930s where equity prices topped out as the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy. Like the 1930s, the global economy is awash and debt, and populist politicians gaining power and influence in the West.



But more interesting than Dalio's retread of his calls for a recession to begin some time during the next two years, he also repeated a claim he first made back in September, which has been getting more attention since BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said something similar earlier this month: That the US dollar's days as the dominant global reserve currency are numbered.




Echoing Fink's claims, Dalio explained that widening US deficits will soon alienate foreign buyers of US Treasurys, sending yields soaring higher while causing the dollar to depreciate by as much as 30% (though at least the Fed would no longer have any trouble meeting its inflation target).

Bloomberg's Brian Chappatta reviewed Dalio's remarks in a column published Monday, where he cited previous comments by the hedge fund billionaire where Dalio said the loss of the dollar's reserve status would be America's "worst nightmare." Dalio believes other rivals to the dollar will emerge to take its place, but refused to speculate about which currencies they might be.

"The role of the U.S. dollar will diminish, and the returns on U.S. dollar-denominated debt will suffer," he said. "Then I think you will see the emergence of other currencies," though he declined to identify which ones, saying it was "too big a topic to get into."

Dalio also shared how he first came to understand currency crises when he was clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. He recalled the day in 1971 when President Richard Nixon shocked markets by severing the dollar's link to gold.

"Money would get you gold, and it was a breakdown - it was a default," he said. "I remember thinking when I was going to walk in on Monday morning to the New York Stock Exchange, this is a big crisis, and I thought the stock market would fall a lot. And the stock market went through the roof."

In response to a question about his outlook for markets, Dalio - who said back in January that anybody caught holding cash would "feel pretty stupid" - warned that the entire world is "leveraged long", and that asset returns in the coming years would be middling to negative for the foreseeable future.

"When you're at a zero interest rate in the US, a zero interest rate in Europe and a zero interest rate in Japan, I think we've squeezed out a lot of assets. I think the world by and large is leveraged long. Meaning the buying of debt - corporate debt. One of the biggest sources of returns on assets was the fact that the interest rate was low relative to the return on equity. There were a lot of buybacks and mergers and acquisitions by companies buying companies. Then you had corporate tax cuts...all of those things have pushed asset prices to the level where it's difficult to see if you could squeeze more."

Fuck Dalio - he made Billions blowing up the stock market bubble on zero interest rates, just like the rest of the WallStreet assholes. He's now going to tell us the stock market is in a Bubble after he's made Billions blowing it up. Fucking asshole - go get a real job.

L
 

PornAddict

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Not only have the Chinese signalled, they were actually making real progress in opening up their markets and cracking down on IP theft. Trump's negotiating depends upon the other side being weak and/or stupid. That might have worked during Trump's career as a real estate con-man, but it doesn't work in geopolitics when the counter-parties are ALL smart (Trump being an exception). Trump has ONE negotiating tactic - it's actually hilarious to watch. He threatens and then he caves. Certain foolish people (eg: Terb Righties) think that's great if he makes gains, but he hasn't. At best, he's regained SOME of the ground lost due to his braindead tactics. So a win is when he takes two steps backward and negotiates 1.8 steps forward. The man is a moron being advised by kooks (Navarro) and addle-brained dinosaurs (Ross). He should fire both.
I have a Brooklyn bridge for sale . If you like to buy from me.
If you seriously believe in what China says and promised..you are a fool!
China lies and cheat and steal! They vaulted themselves from the poorest of the country economically in the world to number 2 in the global world and the rate the are climbing and stealing they will become the number 1 countries in the world .
They are a communist countries which is totalitarian regime who harvest Chinese polticial prisoner and Chinese who practice fung sheung their organ!!
Trump is the only who able to stand up against the against a totalitarian regime just like when Ronald Regean stood up against the Soviet Union.
 

shack

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PornAddict

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And even worse if you believe Mr. 4,000 Lies.
Don't care about trump lies... At least he looking after America and he want to MAGA!!!
Whereas China lies and steal and harvest human organs.

At least he is the only leader in the world is standing up against China.
 

Frankfooter

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Apr 10, 2015
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Don't care about trump lies... At least he looking after America and he want to MAGA!!!
Nah, he's lying to you about that as well.
He only wants to make more money for himself.

You are a sucker if you believe selective lies.
 

essguy_

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Nov 1, 2001
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So apparently Navarro is being left off the guest list for any G20 meetings between China and the US. LOL! I guess somebody was finally able to get through the moronic President's thick skull that Navarro was not helping anything, least of all American interests. Of course Trump is demented (age, or syphilitic insanity) and has the attention span of a gnat and he was a moron before his brain started turning to mush. But for now, it's good news.
 

onthebottom

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Hooterville
www.scubadiving.com
Nobody gives a shit about old Danes or Americans trolling on a Canadian Escort Review board. Don't fool yourself.

What people should give a shit about is factual data, whether it supports your argument or not.

The fact is that USA has a trade deficit because USA does not make a lot of things that the world's population, including China, wants to buy. I cannot remember the last time I bought something made in USA.
Speaking of facts
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2078rank.html
 

essguy_

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Nov 1, 2001
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Nobody gives a shit about old Danes or Americans trolling on a Canadian Escort Review board. Don't fool yourself.

What people should give a shit about is factual data, whether it supports your argument or not.

The fact is that USA has a trade deficit because USA does not make a lot of things that the world's population, including China, wants to buy. I cannot remember the last time I bought something made in USA.

It's not so much that people don't want to buy something made in the USA, it's that many of the the consumer staple items are simply not made there anymore. It's not a quality thing, it's cost. Thinking about eg: my house - my dishwasher (just replaced) is a KitchenAid - apparently made in the USA but that might mean assembled in the USA using Chinese parts. I also have a lot of Kohler taps which used to be made exclusively in the US but even they have moved some to China and India. My car is German but was made in Alabama. I'm happy with all of them.

Trump's fight with China is wrong-headed. If he wants the trade to be balanced then he can either hope that China grows (since it's a huge market) which would be good OR he expects that the US will take back some of the manufacturing that moved there simply because it was cheaper. He is clueless enough that he wants the latter, not the former. If you look at a successful American company like Boeing - they sell a lot of planes to China and have been hurt by all of this trade uncertainty. Same with Caterpillar. Same with US car manufacturers. Hurting trade with China hurts these American companies more than any gain taking back manufacturing that moved to China. On the consumer side - making a lot of the small consumer items in the US will hugely increase costs. Few Americans will want this when it hits their wallets.

The reality is - the best thing for North American companies would be to hope that China thrives and that the Chinese consumer continues to demand goods not available from Chinese companies. But Trump is doing his best to cripple their economy because he's an idiot being advised by kooks. Lose/Lose is the endgame for Trump and if the US loses less, he will brag of a win.

I predict that in the end, the US and China will come to some agreement where China gives some lip service to protecting IP and the US drops tariffs on eg: agricultural products. (In the background, Trump will likely get some nudge nudge/wink wink promises for when he's no longer President). Trump barks but he'll cave in the end and the world will go on, hopefully recovering some of the losses Trump's disruptions caused.

And note that all of this would have been easier had Bone Spurs not picked fights with ALL of his allies. Pointless fights because the fool always caved in the end and settled for a handful of magic beans. With a different approach, Trump would be dealing with China with every one of his former allies (including Canada) at his side. But the man's a complete moron.
 

shack

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Don't care about trump lies... At least he looking after America and he want to MAGA!!!
Whereas China lies and steal and harvest human organs.
You'd care if trump told you that he is going to protect your health care and then took it away and left you out to dry.

trump's only concern is trump.

Totally, idiotic, cultist zombie response. I don't care if my leader lies to me. It is fucking unbelievable what you guys post.
 
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