We are a week away from a very important mid term election. What was supposedly a pending blue wave has turned into a toss up for the House of Representatives and likely an increase in Senate seats for Republicans.
Realclearpolitics has it at 50 safe Republican senate seats, 44 safe (Un)Democrat senate seats, and 6 toss ups. The toss ups are as follows:
Arizona. The (Un)Democrat Kyrsten Sinema holds a 5% lead over Republican Martha McSally for Jeff Flake's old seat. Sinema holds some pretty radical views while McSally has a track record of distinguished military service. I think Arizonans will wake up before election day and make this a much closer race than what the recent polls are suggesting. Too close to call.
Florida. The (Un) Democrat Bill Nelson is do nothing political hack but somehow he's in a dead even heat with Republican Gov. Rick Scott who has done a great job in Florida. Too close to call but if I had to bet my money's on Scott.
Indiana. The (Un) Democrat Joe Donnelly is currently down about 3 points to Republican challenger Mike Braun. There is also a Libertarian candidate who can siphon away votes. Nevertheless, I see a Republican victory here.
Missouri. The (Un) Democrat is long time senator Claire McCaskill. She has steadily been losing ground to Republican Josh Hawley who has been consistently polling 3-4 points ahead of McCaskill the past two weeks or so. An unfavorable video of her was released recently which doesn't help her cause. Prediction: Republican gain.
Montana. The incumbent is (Un) Democrat Jon Tester. His challenger is Matt Rosendale who has been down between 3 and 10 points in recent polling. I think Tester holds this seat for Democrats.
Nevada. The incumbent is Republican Dean Heller who has come from behind and is now polling 6 to 7 points ahead of (Un) Democratic opponent Jacky Rosen. Heller is charismatic and should hold the seat for the Republicans.
Other races of interest are New Jersey and West Virginia where the Republican has gained significant ground on the incumbent (Un) Democrat. As we know West Virginia is solidly Trump territory so I wouldn't be surprised if Joe Manchin is upset there. I put the odds of that at about 35% or so.
When added up it looks like the Republicans will increase their lead in the Senate by at least two seats.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html
Realclearpolitics has it at 50 safe Republican senate seats, 44 safe (Un)Democrat senate seats, and 6 toss ups. The toss ups are as follows:
Arizona. The (Un)Democrat Kyrsten Sinema holds a 5% lead over Republican Martha McSally for Jeff Flake's old seat. Sinema holds some pretty radical views while McSally has a track record of distinguished military service. I think Arizonans will wake up before election day and make this a much closer race than what the recent polls are suggesting. Too close to call.
Florida. The (Un) Democrat Bill Nelson is do nothing political hack but somehow he's in a dead even heat with Republican Gov. Rick Scott who has done a great job in Florida. Too close to call but if I had to bet my money's on Scott.
Indiana. The (Un) Democrat Joe Donnelly is currently down about 3 points to Republican challenger Mike Braun. There is also a Libertarian candidate who can siphon away votes. Nevertheless, I see a Republican victory here.
Missouri. The (Un) Democrat is long time senator Claire McCaskill. She has steadily been losing ground to Republican Josh Hawley who has been consistently polling 3-4 points ahead of McCaskill the past two weeks or so. An unfavorable video of her was released recently which doesn't help her cause. Prediction: Republican gain.
Montana. The incumbent is (Un) Democrat Jon Tester. His challenger is Matt Rosendale who has been down between 3 and 10 points in recent polling. I think Tester holds this seat for Democrats.
Nevada. The incumbent is Republican Dean Heller who has come from behind and is now polling 6 to 7 points ahead of (Un) Democratic opponent Jacky Rosen. Heller is charismatic and should hold the seat for the Republicans.
Other races of interest are New Jersey and West Virginia where the Republican has gained significant ground on the incumbent (Un) Democrat. As we know West Virginia is solidly Trump territory so I wouldn't be surprised if Joe Manchin is upset there. I put the odds of that at about 35% or so.
When added up it looks like the Republicans will increase their lead in the Senate by at least two seats.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html