U.S. midterm elections

K Douglas · Oct 31, 2018

We are a week away from a very important mid term election. What was supposedly a pending blue wave has turned into a toss up for the House of Representatives and likely an increase in Senate seats for Republicans.

Realclearpolitics has it at 50 safe Republican senate seats, 44 safe (Un)Democrat senate seats, and 6 toss ups. The toss ups are as follows:

Arizona. The (Un)Democrat Kyrsten Sinema holds a 5% lead over Republican Martha McSally for Jeff Flake's old seat. Sinema holds some pretty radical views while McSally has a track record of distinguished military service. I think Arizonans will wake up before election day and make this a much closer race than what the recent polls are suggesting. Too close to call.

Florida. The (Un) Democrat Bill Nelson is do nothing political hack but somehow he's in a dead even heat with Republican Gov. Rick Scott who has done a great job in Florida. Too close to call but if I had to bet my money's on Scott.

Indiana. The (Un) Democrat Joe Donnelly is currently down about 3 points to Republican challenger Mike Braun. There is also a Libertarian candidate who can siphon away votes. Nevertheless, I see a Republican victory here.

Missouri. The (Un) Democrat is long time senator Claire McCaskill. She has steadily been losing ground to Republican Josh Hawley who has been consistently polling 3-4 points ahead of McCaskill the past two weeks or so. An unfavorable video of her was released recently which doesn't help her cause. Prediction: Republican gain.

Montana. The incumbent is (Un) Democrat Jon Tester. His challenger is Matt Rosendale who has been down between 3 and 10 points in recent polling. I think Tester holds this seat for Democrats.

Nevada. The incumbent is Republican Dean Heller who has come from behind and is now polling 6 to 7 points ahead of (Un) Democratic opponent Jacky Rosen. Heller is charismatic and should hold the seat for the Republicans.

Other races of interest are New Jersey and West Virginia where the Republican has gained significant ground on the incumbent (Un) Democrat. As we know West Virginia is solidly Trump territory so I wouldn't be surprised if Joe Manchin is upset there. I put the odds of that at about 35% or so.

When added up it looks like the Republicans will increase their lead in the Senate by at least two seats.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html

bver_hunter · Oct 31, 2018

The Democrats are expected to win the House by around 59 Seats:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=midterms-header

onthebottom · Oct 31, 2018

bver_hunter said:
The Democrats are expected to win the House by around 59 Seats:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=midterms-header

They are projected to win, not sure where you get the 59 seats.

oldjones · Oct 31, 2018

And it figures the same electoral mechanics that put Trump in the White House would be exploited in the Senate, where they also apply. Nothing against the mere half-million people of Wyoming — the City of Hamilton has more — but it ain't democracy that gives them the same number of Senators as California (which has the population of Canada, or if you like, of the the 21 least populous states combined).

With disparities like that, you could make any unworthy a Supreme Court Justice. And perhaps have already.

Frankfooter · Oct 31, 2018

GOP gerrymandering will likely keep the senate, but not without cost.
The dem wave will help Mueller as his investigation begins to close with an interview/charges with Stone then subpoena for the POTUS.

Butler1000 · Oct 31, 2018

Frankfooter said:
GOP gerrymandering will likely keep the senate, but not without cost.
The dem wave will help Mueller as his investigation begins to close with an interview/charges with Stone then subpoena for the POTUS.

You can't GerryMander the Senate. It's a state wide vote. You can't redraw state lines.

Sometimes you really do make me laugh.

danmand · Oct 31, 2018

I predict that Republicans will win both the house and senate.

PS: My father taught me to always predict the other team to win. If they win, you can say: "I told you". If they lose, everybody is happy and drunk and nobody remembers what you said.

essguy_ · Oct 31, 2018

Butler1000 said:
You can't GerryMander the Senate. It's a state wide vote. You can't redraw state lines.

Sometimes you really do make me laugh.

By the strict definition of "gerrymandering" then Senate elections ARE state wide therefore immune from gerrymandering. But you're ignoring that simple things like changing the location or reducing the number of Polling Places can have the same effect as gerrymandering and can be a real problem, especially in places where the GOP is the incumbent and therefore can determine this. Eg: "saving expenses" could be a reason given for reducing the number of polling places - making it more difficult for voters who don't have easy access to transit, or a car to vote.

toguy5252 · Oct 31, 2018

essguy_ said:
By the strict definition of "gerrymandering" then Senate elections ARE state wide therefore immune from gerrymandering. But you're ignoring that simple things like changing the location or reducing the number of Polling Places can have the same effect as gerrymandering and can be a real problem, especially in places where the GOP is the incumbent and therefore can determine this. Eg: "saving expenses" could be a reason given for reducing the number of polling places - making it more difficult for voters who don't have easy access to transit, or a car to vote.

They cannot gerrymander but they can suppress and this cycle the instances or actual or attempted voter suppression by GOP candidates with the assistance with governors and state parties is widespread. Really quite shocking and SAD.

essguy_ · Oct 31, 2018

toguy5252 said:
They cannot gerrymander but they can suppress and this cycle the instances or actual or attempted voter suppression by GOP candidates with the assistance with governors and state parties is widespread. Really quite shocking and SAD.

You gotta love the Georgia race where Brian Kemp is not only running, he's also the Chief Electoral Officer for the State. Pretty brazen.

K Douglas · Oct 31, 2018

bver_hunter said:
The Democrats are expected to win the House by around 59 Seats:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=midterms-header

Not a chance. The margin will likely be under 10 seats.

toguy5252 · Oct 31, 2018

essguy_ said:
You gotta love the Georgia race where Brian Kemp is not only running, he's also the Chief Electoral Officer for the State. Pretty brazen.

The GOP defenders of democracy around the world are complicit in the abrogation of their own. It wont be long before Russia or NK are sending monitors.

K Douglas · Oct 31, 2018

essguy_ said:
You gotta love the Georgia race where Brian Kemp is not only running, he's also the Chief Electoral Officer for the State. Pretty brazen.

Shouldn't be allowed to do that. Clear conflict of interest. Should have stepped down as Secretary of State just like his predecessor.

essguy_ · Oct 31, 2018

K Douglas said:
Shouldn't be allowed to do that. Clear conflict of interest. Should have stepped down as Secretary of State just like his predecessor.

Why do you suppose he isn't stepping down especially in the face of alleged voting irregularities? Is he just being a good Republican?

Butler1000 · Oct 31, 2018

essguy_ said:
Why do you suppose he isn't stepping down especially in the face of alleged voting irregularities? Is he just being a good Republican?

No idea. But he should have.

Butler1000 · Oct 31, 2018

toguy5252 said:
They cannot gerrymander but they can suppress and this cycle the instances or actual or attempted voter suppression by GOP candidates with the assistance with governors and state parties is widespread. Really quite shocking and SAD.

Look up what Wasserman Schultz did in the primary this year to Tim Cordova. Shredding the paper copies before a recount is just as dodgy.

toguy5252 · Oct 31, 2018

Butler1000 said:
Look up what Wasserman Schultz did in the primary this year to Tim Cordova. Shredding the paper copies before a recount is just as dodgy.

Not at all the same. Wassermann-Shultz did nothing. This was a primary. The chief electoral officer for the county destroyed the physical copies of ballots but maintained electronic copies. There is no suggestion that anyone's vote was suppressed. There is no suggestion that Wassermann-Schultz was involved or that the outcome of the primary was affected although it does appear that the law was broken by destroying the ballots.

Butler1000 · Oct 31, 2018

toguy5252 said:
Not at all the same. Wassermann-Shultz did nothing. This was a primary. The chief electoral officer for the county destroyed the physical copies of ballots but maintained electronic copies. There is no suggestion that anyone's vote was suppressed. There is no suggestion that Wassermann-Schultz was involved or that the outcome of the primary was affected although it does appear that the law was broken by destroying the ballots.

There is actually. They refused to recount when there was evidence it should happen.

And considering her actions during the 2016 presidential campaign you're damn right she would interfere in her own primary.

I won't call you naive. Which makes this worse.

bver_hunter · Oct 31, 2018

K Douglas said:
Not a chance. The margin will likely be under 10 seats.

A win, is a win, is a win. As long as the Republicans lose control of the House then one can see a proper Mueller Investigation co-operating with the House to right all the wrongs from these past couple of years:bump2:.

Bud Plug · Nov 1, 2018

bver_hunter said:
A win, is a win, is a win. As long as the Republicans lose control of the House then one can see a proper Mueller Investigation co-operating with the House to right all the wrongs from these past couple of years:bump2:.

Why is that? Mueller reports to the DOJ (Rosenstein specifically), not the house. I think you're still confused by all of this.

U.S. midterm elections

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