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Here’s Why A New Poll Is Good News For Conservatives, And Bad News For Trudeau

Conil

Well-known member
Apr 12, 2013
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The honeymoon is over, people realize that we're better of with conservatives.


Big number of Canadians won’t even consider voting Liberal.

A new Angus Reid poll has some good news for the Conservative Party, and some bad news for the Trudeau Liberals.

While the poll asked a lot of questions, the key number is when it comes to who Canadians are considering voting for.

The results show a much larger number of Canadians willing to consider voting Conservative than are willing to consider voting Liberal.
A full 49% of Canadians say they would “Never” consider voting Liberal. By comparison, 18% are Core Liberals, 22% are Likely Liberals, and 11% say they would “Maybe” vote Liberal.

Broken down, that means 51% of Canadians are open to voting Liberal, while 49% are not.
The numbers for the Conservatives are different.

37% say they would “Never” consider voting Conservative. 28% are Core Conservatives, 20% are Likely Conservatives, and 15% would “Maybe” vote Conservative.

This means 63% of Canadians are willing to consider voting Conservative, while 37% are not.

This 12 point gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals in terms of Canadians willing to vote for them is great news for the Conservative Party.
It gives them more room to gain potential voters, while it limits the Trudeau Liberals potential ceiling of support.

Trudeau came into office with high approval ratings, but has steadily alienated more and more Canadians, to the point in which nearly half the country totally rejects him and won’t even consider voting Liberal.

A consequence of this is that the next election will be one of the most negative of all time. The Liberals will attempt to demonize Conservatives, to drive down the number of Canadians willing to vote for the main Opposition Party.

We can already see this in the increasingly divisive tactics of the Liberals – including their doubling-down on vile identity politics and blaming the Conservatives for everything.

That’s only going to get worse.

https://www.spencerfernando.com/201...-DEwjdT5NP1SPA3RPu1v2stNdWCfLIFj2lNKRElsdUp6o
 

bver_hunter

Well-known member
Nov 5, 2005
27,452
5,642
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Liberals 37, Conservatives 31, NDP 16, Green 7, People’s 1 in latest Nanos federal tracking
Nanos Weekly Tracking, ending October 12, 2018 (released October 16, 2018 - 6 am Eastern)

Ballot – The latest Nanos federal ballot tracking has the Liberals at 37.1 per cent support, followed by the Conservatives at 31.4 per cent, the NDP at 16.1 percent, the BQ at 3.7 per cent, the Greens at 7.2 per cent and the newly formed People’s Party of Canada (PPC) at 1.3 per cent. Note: this is the first four week tracking wave for the PPC.
Accessible Voters – Asked whether they would consider voting for each of the federal parties, 52.0 per cent of Canadians say they would consider voting Liberal while 44.1 per cent would consider voting Conservative. Roughly one in three (35.8%) would consider voting NDP, 30.3 per cent would consider voting Green, 11.2 per cent would consider voting for the People’s Party and 26.2 per cent would consider voting for the BQ.
Preferred Prime Minister – Nanos tracking has Trudeau as the preferred choice as PM at 39.1 per cent of Canadians followed by Scheer (23.4%), Singh (7.1%), May (5.5%) and Bernier (3.1%). Twenty one per cent of Canadians were unsure whom they preferred.
Qualities of a Good Political Leader – Almost six in ten Canadians (58.6%) believe Trudeau has the qualities of a good political leader while 43.0 per cent believe Scheer has the qualities of a good political leader. One in three (34.5%) say Jagmeet Singh has the qualities of a good political leader, while 32.9 per cent believe the same about May. One in five (20.8%) believe Bernier has the qualities of a good political leader and one in seven (17.2 %) said Beaulieu has the qualities of a good political leader (QC only).

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Political-Package-2018-10-12-FR.pdf
 

Orion1027

Member
Jan 10, 2017
482
3
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Trudeau’s popularity will tank with his carbon tax grab. People can be dismissive about it, Doug Ford & Ford Nation will be a factor in the next election and won’t bode well for Trudeau.
 

Smallcock

Active member
Jun 5, 2009
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james t kirk

Well-known member
Aug 17, 2001
23,939
3,692
113
Anyone but Justin the Groper
My statement with respect to Bernier was lost on you.

I said Maxime Bernier because his running will guarantee that Sheer loses. Maxime will only steel votes (and seats) from Sheer. Every vote for Bernier is a vote for Trudeau. And don't ever kid yourself, Quebecers are huge racists and they will love Bernier's platform.

Ergo, Sheer is toast.
 

mandrill

Well-known member
Aug 23, 2001
70,604
69,538
113
My statement with respect to Bernier was lost on you.

I said Maxime Bernier because his running will guarantee that Sheer loses. Maxime will only steel votes (and seats) from Sheer. Every vote for Bernier is a vote for Trudeau. And don't ever kid yourself, Quebecers are huge racists and they will love Bernier's platform.

Ergo, Sheer is toast.
Interesting post. I thought Bernier was a total ass until the results of the recent Provincial election in Quebec. Now I think Bernier is a genius.

Quebec politics is in flux and this season's fashion colour is to go far right. Bernier will offer himself and his new party as the federal version of Avenir Quebec - or whatever that stupid pack of bigots calls themselves. He may well sweep the rural and small town ridings. The Liberals will take Montreal and Quebec City.

But the Tories would never have won much in Quebec in any event. Quebecois will never vote for an Anglo from SK leading the party that hanged Riel and forced conscription on Quebec in 1917.
 

Darts

Well-known member
Jan 15, 2017
23,061
11,163
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I think Bernier will take votes away from the Liberals in Quebec, just like the CAQ did.

The Liberals might have huge majorities in Montreal ridings but still win only a very few seats.

In vote rich Ontario, Toronto will vote Liberal/NDP but the 905 with its self-dependent industrious visible majority will vote PC.
 

james t kirk

Well-known member
Aug 17, 2001
23,939
3,692
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Interesting post. I thought Bernier was a total ass until the results of the recent Provincial election in Quebec. Now I think Bernier is a genius.

Quebec politics is in flux and this season's fashion colour is to go far right. Bernier will offer himself and his new party as the federal version of Avenir Quebec - or whatever that stupid pack of bigots calls themselves. He may well sweep the rural and small town ridings. The Liberals will take Montreal and Quebec City.

But the Tories would never have won much in Quebec in any event. Quebecois will never vote for an Anglo from SK leading the party that hanged Riel and forced conscription on Quebec in 1917.
Quebecers are notorious for jumping on one bandwagon one minute, than another bandwagon in the next election.

Case in point, Quebec voted en mass for Brian Mulroney and then en mass for Jack Layton.
 

Zaibetter

Banned
Mar 27, 2016
4,284
1
0
What's the status on that? All water under the bridge now?
It looks that way, and none of the women's groups that were protesting so much in the US give a fuck about the Groper. Its ok for him to Grope because he's a Libtard.
 

Zaibetter

Banned
Mar 27, 2016
4,284
1
0
My statement with respect to Bernier was lost on you.

I said Maxime Bernier because his running will guarantee that Sheer loses. Maxime will only steel votes (and seats) from Sheer. Every vote for Bernier is a vote for Trudeau. And don't ever kid yourself, Quebecers are huge racists and they will love Bernier's platform.

Ergo, Sheer is toast.
I agree with this possibility that's why nobody is happy with this. We'll have to see what happens.
 

essguy_

Active member
Nov 1, 2001
4,432
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38
Even with Bernier siphoning some Quebec votes (assuming he can attract enough candidates to run) - the CPC would have a real shot except for the fact that they're stuck with Scheer. Remember that Scheer has been leader now for over 1.5 years and the party is doing OK despite him, not because of. In fact, Scheer has been strategically kept out of the domestic limelight because he simply does not attract votes or generate any confidence that he is PM material. This will have to change as the election draws nearer because Scheer will have to appear more and more. The more Scheer is in the spotlight, the more Canadians will cringe at the thought of him trying to lead anything. Every criticism which the CPC lobbed at Trudeau applies two-fold to Scheer. And Trudeau did take a third place party to majority. Scheer has taken a well funded second place party to not much different than when he became leader, since arguably all the gains have come due to Liberal gaffes.

I still shake my head that he's the party leader - a real mistake of the balloting process.
 

mandrill

Well-known member
Aug 23, 2001
70,604
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Even with Bernier siphoning some Quebec votes (assuming he can attract enough candidates to run) - the CPC would have a real shot except for the fact that they're stuck with Scheer. Remember that Scheer has been leader now for over 1.5 years and the party is doing OK despite him, not because of. In fact, Scheer has been strategically kept out of the domestic limelight because he simply does not attract votes or generate any confidence that he is PM material. This will have to change as the election draws nearer because Scheer will have to appear more and more. The more Scheer is in the spotlight, the more Canadians will cringe at the thought of him trying to lead anything. Every criticism which the CPC lobbed at Trudeau applies two-fold to Scheer. And Trudeau did take a third place party to majority. Scheer has taken a well funded second place party to not much different than when he became leader, since arguably all the gains have come due to Liberal gaffes.

I still shake my head that he's the party leader - a real mistake of the balloting process.

I disagree. The CPC doesn't have a shot in Quebec. Quebec is currently WAY further right than all but the nutbar fringe of the CPC. Avenir Quebec (?) has banned Muslim and Jewish costume from public officials. Muslim-beating is standard current-day race-baiting. Trump would do it, if he was smart enough to think about it. But there's no way in fuck that the CPC touches the Jewish issue.

Casual use of the "notwithstanding clause". I hope tf that the CPC doesn't lean towards doing that.

And a virulently nationalistic and racist Quebec ain't voting for an Anglo party based in the rural West and let by an idiot from SK. It's a clear non starter. Until Quebec gobbles down a new set of political drugs, it's on its own head trip into 1930's nostalgia.

I'm hoping Quebec starts getting sick of Avenir in a year or two when it realizes what idiot racist assholes they are. Then look for them to swing back towards the centre and give Justin a massive, huge majority.
 

Darts

Well-known member
Jan 15, 2017
23,061
11,163
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As someone who has studied, worked and lived in Montreal, I can safely say that the Quebecois, unlike English Canada, is very protective of their language and culture. The vast majority of Quebecois are not racist, all they ask is that you learn their language and adopt their culture.

Jackie Robinson was adored in Quebec and Chinese Canadian hockey player Larry Kwong spent almost his entire pro career in Quebec.
 
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