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Hot Take: Nylander Will No Longer Be A Leaf (next year)....and That's Okay

GameBoy27

Well-known member
Nov 23, 2004
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I still read articles and hear “analysts” and experts saying they never saw this coming or still think he will sign.

It reminds me that they are fans and only have a bit more info than we do but they don’t want to analyze logically and take risks with their commentary.

It is very likely that he will sit out the year. It’s an extrapolation of the current two plus months.

No experts are taking to that opinion though. The Nylander camp didn’t think this would happen but clearly they drew a line in the sand and won’t back down.

It’s in the Leafs hands so trade or sit.
For arguments sake, use the numbers of wanting 8 mil and being offered 6.5 mil. If he ends up sitting out this year, he loses 6.5 mil. That means even if he signs for 8 mil elsewhere, he's not looking at pocketing an extra 1 mil until the 23/24 season.

Think about that Willy!
 

smuddan

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Mar 7, 2007
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The best case scenario would be signing him to a fair deal that fits the Leafs cap structure. The next best would be trading him for a young player of equal talent, but that's unlikely for obvious reasons.

As for worse case scenarios, I don't know which one of the following is the worse :

1) let him sit out the year and that may soften him up the next time they negotiate,
2) overpay him and screw things up later, or
3) trade him for a poor return in value. A "package" return usually means you lose. It's hard to see any gm would trade any top young player or prospect for Willy while having to sign him for over 7 mil a year.

To me it seems letting him sit would hurt the Leafs least.
 

Dawgger

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Jan 3, 2005
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If Willy wants to play this year the puck is his. Leafs don't appear to miss him. GM has to show he is hard nosed and is doing that! Willy can either sign for what the Leaf's offer or sit, his call! The only other scenario might be if, some team wants him badly enough to pay him what he wants and trades a decent young defenceman (and whatever else the Leafs can get out of them) that is locked in to a cap friendly contract.
 

bmwquay

Active member
Feb 24, 2008
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He never said Nylander by name. But used the plural rather than singular when referring to important player(s) joining the team. Perhaps he knows of an impending trade and was thinking of that defenseman. Freudian slip.
 

smuddan

Well-known member
Mar 7, 2007
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What did he say?
Here's a quote of what Babcock said from a SN article :

"Any way you look at it we’ve got off to a good start. We think our team’s going to be better, we have significant pieces not here and they will be here. So we’ll be a deeper team.”
 

Insidious Von

My head is my home
Sep 12, 2007
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In comparison:

Kapanen is a faster skater, if he gets a stride on a defenseman he can't be stopped - look what he did to Karlsson. On the flipside, Nylander is a better passer who knows instinctively where the open man will be. Part of the reason why he had two 60 points seasons.

For me it's a toss up, you trade only if you can get a front line defenseman. Carolina has a defensive glut, maybe they're willing to part with one for more scoring. Willy with Aho, that's dangerous!
 

saxon

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Dec 2, 2009
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Here's a quote of what Babcock said from a SN article :

"Any way you look at it we’ve got off to a good start. We think our team’s going to be better, we have significant pieces not here and they will be here. So we’ll be a deeper team.”
This is just Babcock’s way of telling Dubas to get this situation dealt with one way or the other.
 

mynameisearl11

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Aug 16, 2011
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vaughan
Just heard on sports radio that Nylander maybe signed for...6.9mil per. The sticking point now is the term of the deal. If this is true I think that is a huge jump in salary for Nylander. He will have his work cut out once he's back in to the line up to justify his worth.
 

shack

Nitpicker Extraordinaire
Oct 2, 2001
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Toronto
Here's a quote of what Babcock said from a SN article :

"Any way you look at it we’ve got off to a good start. We think our team’s going to be better, we have significant pieces not here and they will be here. So we’ll be a deeper team.”
Thanks.
 

shack

Nitpicker Extraordinaire
Oct 2, 2001
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Just heard on sports radio that Nylander maybe signed for...6.9mil per. The sticking point now is the term of the deal. If this is true I think that is a huge jump in salary for Nylander. He will have his work cut out once he's back in to the line up to justify his worth.
That sounds like a compromise and the optics of keeping it under $7M may be appealing to the Leafs. Like something priced at $9.99
 

bmwquay

Active member
Feb 24, 2008
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In comparison:

Kapanen is a faster skater, if he gets a stride on a defenseman he can't be stopped - look what he did to Karlsson. On the flipside, Nylander is a better passer who knows instinctively where the open man will be. Part of the reason why he had two 60 points seasons.

For me it's a toss up, you trade only if you can get a front line defenseman. Carolina has a defensive glut, maybe they're willing to part with one for more scoring. Willy with Aho, that's dangerous!
Carolina's group of defensemen looked really good against the Leafs. Leafs are forward heavy and defense weak. Even if Nylander is not traded now they can always consider something later.
 

GameBoy27

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Nov 23, 2004
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Nylander knows how long it will take to recoup the $$$ he will lose by sitting out a year. And the uncertainty of where he may end up if traded. I truly believe he wants to play with this group. The fact that they're doing as well as they are missing Matthews and Nylander can't be helping his worth.
 

saxon

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Dec 2, 2009
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Whatever the outcome it’s obvious Nylander isn’t going to give the Leafs a discount. I’m sure the agents for Matthews and Marner have been following this very closely.
 

shack

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Oct 2, 2001
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Whatever the outcome it’s obvious Nylander isn’t going to give the Leafs a discount. I’m sure the agents for Matthews and Marner have been following this very closely].
So those agents will have some sympathy towards the Leafs' situation?:eyebrows: They are such nice guys.
 

Malibuk

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Jan 9, 2017
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It isn`t a matter of giving the Leafs a discount.
RFA are not UFA and you shouldn`t have to pay them as if you are outbidding 30 teams.

After 3 years entry level contract, the player isn`t even eligible for salary arbitration.
The team simply has to make a qualifying offer which is generally way less than anything that is being contemplated on either side.
Sitting out a year makes no sense as it takes 27 years of age or 7 years in the league to become an UFA so next year he would be in essentially the exact same boat.

Players who really believe in themselves shouldn`t have a problem with a fair bridge deal that gets them to arbitration eligibility.
Plus I am not sold on Nylander long term as he was totally useless in the playoffs and backing away from pucks because he didn`t want to take a hit.
 

Indiana

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Feb 23, 2010
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Kapanen was one of those diamonds in the rough waiting for an opportunity.
I think he’s got more upside than Nylander.
Plus there’s only so much room on a roster provided porcelain man Mathews returns.
Let greedy Willie sit for 5 yrs I say.
 

saxon

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Dec 2, 2009
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Kapanen was one of those diamonds in the rough waiting for an opportunity.
I think he’s got more upside than Nylander.
Plus there’s only so much room on a roster provided porcelain man Mathews returns.
Let greedy Willie sit for 5 yrs I say.
Kapanen will be a RFA after this season, if he continues to impress he will also demand a huge pay increase.
 
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