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Hot Take: Nylander Will No Longer Be A Leaf (next year)....and That's Okay

Johnny Utah

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Okay, here's my take.

1. Willie is asking for Draisaitl money (around $8 -ish AAV) and the Leafs want him more at Pastrnak's ($6.67 -ish AAV) level. I think $6.5 is fair and that they are like off by half a million. Michael Nylander, his father, is a stubborn and selfish fool and he is advising his son. Likely against the agent's wishes. That is likely the reason we have this stand off for a 22 year old over not very much money. Both sides want long contracts.

2. Dubas isn't merely negotiating for this contract, he negotiating is for ALL future contracts. Auston will be around 11 - 13 million and Marner will likely fetch 9 or 10 plus. Dubas' reputation is on the line and he arrogantly said he could sign all 3. It has to be on his terms and like I said in #1, the other side doesn't seem like they will budge but Dubas definitely won't and should not budge. That means a stalemate but Dubas has all the leverage. Nylanders camp really has zero leverage unless the leafs go on a deep slide. But even so, it would be hard to argue that it is because of the #1 RW position. We have replacements in Leivo and Ennis.

3. The Leafs don't NEED Nylander. The top 5 most important players on this team in no particular order are: JT, AM, MM, Anderson, Riley and the under-rated and cap-friendly Kadri. I would PREFER a young defenseman than Nylander. I think Willie has a ceiling of 80 or 90 on a great line but may be a 70 point player on this.


Don't get me wrong. I like Nylander. But there is one puck around and a more balanced team is what most of us want since we have so much forward depth.
Think back to the last time with 4 highly paid forwards during the cap years. We're they all making nearly 60 - 70% of the cap together?

Also remember when Colorado had Sakic, Forsberg, Hejduk, Kariya and Selanne? All players who had scored more than 80 points? There's just one puck. And no, they did not ALL score prolifically near 80 points each.

If Willie signs, he will likely score 60 - 75 points on this team but I am betting around 65 average for a few years. There's just not enough ice time to go around.


Personally, I don't think nor do I want him to sign unless it is for Pastrnak money. And then I want him to be traded for a Noah Hanifin type young. I don't believe a model built on 4 high paid forwards is right at all. The Penguins have 3 + Letang and Fleury. That is more balanced.

So I don't think he will come back. If he does, a bridge may be burnt and it won't be long until he's gone.

In this case, I agree with Brian Burke. Force the player's hand. He will be a Leaf or he can play on another team and I think his career will be diminished.

Thoughts?
 
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checks

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You basically brought up the most important point at the end: long term deal and then trade him. He knows that's a possiblilty too, so why would he agree to less money, and take one for the team as it were, just to be traded elsewhere in a year or two? Can't blame the guy for wanting max money, and can't blame the team either. That's the way a salary cap league works.

The one thing I can't comprehend is that he seems willing to sit out the year. Assuming he'd sign for around 6-7 mil, he misses this season and is out 6 million. He'll never make that money up over the term of his contract.
 

Johnny Utah

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Dubas won’t give a deadline because he does not need to play hardball with a deadline.

He doesn’t need to force the leverage since the team will keep winning and that alone will be the leverage. With time, Nylander makes less money, loses leverage and the PR battle. It is so easy to see that every agent knows this.

That is why I suspect it is his father Michael. Pure selfish stubbornness. Willie is really good but not great. Far more value on this team for a bit less than to gamble on two years of not playing or playing on a worse team with a worse centre and not making even 7 million a year.

Stupid if you ask me.
 

Insidious Von

My head is my home
Sep 12, 2007
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We Are Auston.

This past summer AM trained properly, no training with older players. I'm expecting him to have a monstrous season. Then he can demand $13 million and the Leafs will give it to him. Nylander has no leverage, the quicker he comes to terms with this the sooner he'll get to ride the AM Express. Take the bridge deal and excel in Toronto or become another Matt Duchene, it's up to him.
 

Hard Idle

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Jan 15, 2005
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Dubas won’t give a deadline because he does not need to play hardball with a deadline.

He doesn’t need to force the leverage since the team will keep winning and that alone will be the leverage. With time, Nylander makes less money, loses leverage and the PR battle. It is so easy to see that every agent knows this.
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Except that Nylander isn't gaining value on the trade market as he hits on the sidelines. They should have tried to shop him earlier..
 

smuddan

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Mar 7, 2007
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I suspect that the Nylander camp is seriously thinking they can get anywhere close to 8mil per as rumoured. The sit out is probably a ploy to get over 7m or to force a trade to a team that would. The Leafs are probably offering lower than 6.5m for a long term deal with no no-trade, which will fit into their cap structure and the flexibility of trading him for defence help with the upcoming free agent status of Gardiner and Hainsey.
 

wazup

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Jun 12, 2010
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I find Nylander inconsistent, disappears for a few games. He deserves whatever Gaudreau makes or less.
 

Johnny Utah

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Word is that Nylander's camp wants 7 million for 6 - 7 years with a pay raise due to taking up a UFA year.

Another problem is that the comparables are Pastrnak and Gaudreau who both make under 7 and are BETTER than Nylander.

I think the hardball is at $6.5. Very fair amount. Even $6.75 is. But $7 is NOT a win for Dubas. He won't get raked over the coils but it won't be a clear win.
 

Hard Idle

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He is a fool not to want to play with this group of forwards over a $1M difference. It's true there will be less ice tie and "puck" to go around but at the same time he will never be higher than 4th in the order of expectations and shit. There will always be greater pressure on Mathews, Tavares & Marner here than on Nylander.
 

wazup

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Mathews will get paid as he is the face and next captain. He plays against other teams best which gives more freedom for others. Marner needs to get a point a game plus to get 9 mil. Maybe a marleau buyout depending on his year, what would that cost?
 

Johnny Utah

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HNIC intermission has a theory that they are holding out for $8 million. Actually.

Wow. That means they are off by nearly $1.5 million.

My theory is looking pretty good. Dubas WON'T back down because he can't.

New prediction: Willie won't play for the Leafs and will get traded in the New Year.
 

Goodoer

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Feb 20, 2004
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GTA & Thereabouts...
Agreed. Things are not looking good for Nylander. He could be a 'God' in Toronto - due to his looks alone. He's fucking shit up and also with future sponsors.

It'll be 'death' for him once we move on from this discussion. We've seen self-centered Leafs before... The fans won't tolerate it any longer.
 

Johnny Utah

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Jun 9, 2017
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Agreed. Things are not looking good for Nylander. He could be a 'God' in Toronto - due to his looks alone. He's fucking shit up and also with future sponsors.

It'll be 'death' for him once we move on from this discussion. We've seen self-centered Leafs before... The fans won't tolerate it any longer.
This kid has it all. Looks. Money. Fame. Hence why I think it’s his father giving bad advice.

The fans will definitely be against him by November.

Right now time is leverage.

Or another team signs him and Lefs get compensation.
I believe an offer sheet can’t be made until either next year or Dec 1st. Still very unlikely due to the picks and the unwritten rule by GM’a not to do this. I may be wrong about the timing. Maybe there isn’t one but I would not bet on this happening at all.
 

superstar_88

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Jan 4, 2008
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and that hair. don't forget about that hair. best hair in the history of the nhl. think about the hair products he could market.
 

K Douglas

Half Man Half Amazing
Jan 5, 2005
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Room 112
I find Nylander inconsistent, disappears for a few games. He deserves whatever Gaudreau makes or less.
Gaudreau is a far superior talent than Nylander. Nylander has 135 points in 185 games. 0.73 points per game. Gaudreau has 292 points in 314 games - 0.93 points per game.
 

Dawgger

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Jan 3, 2005
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Nylander and the Leafs still far apart. Leafs could use a defenseman and apparently teams are calling to see if Nylander is available.

If there is a decent offer for him trade him, if not let him have the year off!
 

Johnny Utah

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I’m not hearing many people thinking he is worth it.

But all the announcers and pundits still think he will sign.

I’m not sure if it’s because they play it safe with their calls (they all do) or if he believe it.

I am taking a logical leap of faith. He ain’t signing with us or if he does, it’s a sign and trade.
 

superstar_88

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Without Tavaras Leafs would need him badly. With Tavaras he almost looks tradeable for several reasons. 1 Kapanen is looking good. 2 they could use a good D to play with Reilly. 3 there's no room for Willy on the 1st PP unit. 4 very difficult to fit him Matthews and Marner under cap. However, imagine the Leafs with Nylander and a rental defenseman for this years playoffs.
 
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