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death of NAFTA good or bad for Canada?

nottyboi

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May 14, 2008
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Looks to me like Trump wants to kill NAFTA. I am not sure if he can, but would it be good or bad for Canada. With a massive 32B manufacturing deficit, Canada can take back a great deal of manufacturing while still selling our oil and commodities elsewhere. Will stuff be more expensive here? SURE, but there is a good chance we will also be richer. Opinions?
 

Butler1000

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Oct 31, 2011
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I think the inclusion of Mexico was a bad idea.

I prefer bilateral when it comes to trade.

Let it die. The original Free trade agreement kicks in. And then add to that.

We can negotiate with Mexico separately.
 

Frankfooter

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Apr 10, 2015
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It hasn't been good for Canada, but there will be big pain without it.
Doesn't sound like there is any point negotiating with Trump.
Though if I were Trudeau I'd just stall, say we need another couple of months and then wait to see if Trump is still in power or can remember what he said.
 

jcpro

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Jan 31, 2014
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The inclusion of Mexico was the reason why I sat out Kim Campbell's bid for power. Then, I had a front row seat at the hollowing out of the Southwestern Ontario industries as they packed up and shipped to Mexico. One after the other because our workers could not compete with the third world wages. And I'm not even talking about car assemblers, but the parts and components makers who were paid a hell of a less than the Big Three sacred cows, although their time came, too. NAFTA moved Ontario from a decent and fairly balanced economy with good fundamentals to a parasitic shadow of it former self that we see today. And the damage continues to being inflicted.
 

Insidious Von

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The initial free trade deal with the USA was skewed, it hurt Ontario deeply. The 1991 - 95 Recession remains the worst that Ontario has ever endured. In the long run NAFTA actually improved Ontario's economy, the 0.63 cent dollar also helped. Mexico was brought in to Canada's advantage, prior to that, the USA set terms to suit themselves. Trumpy scrapping NAFTA will hurt the American economy in a number of Midwestern Red States. There's always opportunities as long as Canada isn't dependent on natural resources. We now have a free trade agreement with the EU in place.
 

onthebottom

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The initial free trade deal with the USA was skewed, it hurt Ontario deeply. The 1991 - 95 Recession remains the worst that Ontario has ever endured. In the long run NAFTA actually improved Ontario's economy, the 0.63 cent dollar also helped. Mexico was brought in to Canada's advantage, prior to that, the USA set terms to suit themselves. Trumpy scrapping NAFTA will hurt the American economy in a number of Midwestern Red States. There's always opportunities as long as Canada isn't dependent on natural resources. We now have a free trade agreement with the EU in place.
Diversification as a ways to go: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_Canada

http://www.worldstopexports.com/canadas-top-exports/
 

nottyboi

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May 14, 2008
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The initial free trade deal with the USA was skewed, it hurt Ontario deeply. The 1991 - 95 Recession remains the worst that Ontario has ever endured. In the long run NAFTA actually improved Ontario's economy, the 0.63 cent dollar also helped. Mexico was brought in to Canada's advantage, prior to that, the USA set terms to suit themselves. Trumpy scrapping NAFTA will hurt the American economy in a number of Midwestern Red States. There's always opportunities as long as Canada isn't dependent on natural resources. We now have a free trade agreement with the EU in place.
I wonder if Trudeau, during his meeting with Trump highlighted that we have a FTA with EU, and maybe he said, if the US tries to stick it to Canada, we will walk and just refocus our future on being more Eurocentric. Screw the USA and drive European and Asian cars, buy European airliners and build on our relationship with Mexico.
 

FAST

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Mar 12, 2004
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NAFTA has been a fantastic deal for both the US and for Canada.
On this we can agree,... up until the point Mexico became a factor,... then it became more a like trade with China,... with imports to Canada at over 5 times the exports to Mexico.
 

fuji

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On this we can agree,... up until the point Mexico became a factor,... then it became more a like trade with China,... with imports to Canada at over 5 times the exports to Mexico.
Canadians have benefited enormously from trade with Mexico. Nobody likes overpaying for goods. The signing of NAFTA kicked off the longest period of economic expansion in history.

Some overpaid workers lost their jobs. Many much better jobs were created elsewhere. Incomes are way up. GDP is way up. It's been fantastic.
 

jcpro

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Jan 31, 2014
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Seems Washington thinks Trump is failing so bad he's just striking out at everyone right now.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/oct/14/donald-trump-iran-healthcare-white-house-corker

I'd expect that NAFTA is the same thing, he's against it though he doesn't know why and doesn't know what would happen without it.
Rotfl. Striking at what? Trade renegotiations is the cornerstone of his platform. It always was. One of the reasons he's in the White House. Canadians might not like the rough handling, but it's America First policy in practice. Trudeau running off to Mexico City right after meeting Trump was an error of an inexperienced politician. Mexico is out of the equation on NAFTA, it should not take a genius to figure this out. Alas, not our feminist leader.
 

Frankfooter

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Apr 10, 2015
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Rotfl. Striking at what? Trade renegotiations is the cornerstone of his platform. It always was. One of the reasons he's in the White House. Canadians might not like the rough handling, but it's America First policy in practice. Trudeau running off to Mexico City right after meeting Trump was an error of an inexperienced politician. Mexico is out of the equation on NAFTA, it should not take a genius to figure this out. Alas, not our feminist leader.
Trump is the dealbreaker, not deal maker.
His history before being elected showed him breaking deals and stiffing suppliers and contractors at will.

Now he's breaking previous agreements from Iran, Paris, NAFTA and NATO.
CBC nails him.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/nafta-taxes-behavioural-economics-1.4349299
 

PornAddict

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I think the inclusion of Mexico was a bad idea.

I prefer bilateral when it comes to trade.

Let it die. The original Free trade agreement kicks in. And then add to that.

We can negotiate with Mexico separately.
Inclusion of Mexico is a very bad ideas...cannot competit against Mexican wage $2 per hours vs $30 per hours in automobile industries in Canada or USA. Pretty soon majority of automobile jobs will be in Mexico.
 

fuji

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Inclusion of Mexico is a very bad ideas...cannot competit against Mexican wage $2 per hours vs $30 per hours in automobile industries in Canada or USA. Pretty soon majority of automobile jobs will be in Mexico.
Competing with Mexico isn't a decision you can make. I guarantee you that US companies will be competing with Mexico. Period. NAFTA or not.

The US isn't even the biggest consumer market anymore. The winning companies will sell globally, compete finally, and use their global economies of scale to crush smaller companies that hide in a single market behind some protectionist policy.

The only question is whether you want them to be strong competitors, and in fact, to have US companies benefit from the low Mexican wage, or whether you want US companies to be weak, able to exist only with government help, and unable to benefit from low Mexican wages like their foreign competitors do.
 

HungSowel

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Mar 3, 2017
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Even with NAFTA and being adjacent to the US, Mexico is still a shithole. There are fundamental flaws in Mexico, until that is fixed they will continue to be cheap labor and not have a large enough middle class to purchase our exports.

Kick mexico out, US and Canada will keep the same NAFTA agreement with each other.
 

FAST

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Competing with Mexico isn't a decision you can make. I guarantee you that US companies will be competing with Mexico. Period. NAFTA or not.

The US isn't even the biggest consumer market anymore. The winning companies will sell globally, compete finally, and use their global economies of scale to crush smaller companies that hide in a single market behind some protectionist policy.

The only question is whether you want them to be strong competitors, and in fact, to have US companies benefit from the low Mexican wage, or whether you want US companies to be weak, able to exist only with government help, and unable to benefit from low Mexican wages like their foreign competitors do.
You don't even understand what NAFTA can be,... do you.

And just how does a 1st world country benefit,... from moving jobs to 3rd world countries,... ???

With a trade imbalance of 5 to one in favour of Mexico to Canada.
 

fuji

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You don't even understand what NAFTA can be,... do you.

And just how does a 1st world country benefit,... from moving jobs to 3rd world countries,... ???

With a trade imbalance of 5 to one in favour of Mexico to Canada.
Canadians and Canadian businesses benefited enormously from lower prices.
 

managee

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Jun 19, 2013
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There’s no such thing as a perfect trade deal. Compromises on all sides were made in-order to ratify NAFTA. Any future trade deal between Canada and the US or Canada and the US and Mexico will be filled with compromise. One sided-trade deals don’t happen between allies, let alone in-between allies whose economies are totally reliant on one another (‘economic partnership’ isn’t hyperbole.

NAFTA has been excellent for all 3 countries. Without a doubt, some sectors were harmed in each, the DSR process has been particularly unfair to Canada IMO, and I’m not a fan of some of the negative environmental impacts it’s had directly, particularly on our oceans - BUT the economic growth it enabled is the reason all 3 countries will renegotiate.

Attempting to expand, for-instance, the auto sector and protect the farm industry, doesn’t have the cost-benefit ratio a President like Trump will need in 3 years. Consumers will be slammed with primary and secondary goods price increases that will be impossible to ignore, regardless of how many times he says “fake news.” MAGA operates on the presumption that jobs are coming home. The reality is, they won’t. Or not in the form that ‘tookerjob’ folks will benefit from. Look at the Tesla factory. If they’re going to try to make Detroit great again, it’s not going to be by re-opening an inefficient, labour intensive traditional assembly line. Currently underemployed Americans are unlikely to work for minimum wage (or less) picking tomatoes in a field, just as the average consumer will be unwilling to pay a living wage for their Walmart veg.

Nobody is signing a deal unless it benefits their country. If you want affordable food and housing materials, you’re going to need to give something up elsewhere. If Canada wants protections for one sector, it’s going to need to accept the resulting protections gained by the US.

It’s going to be a VERY interesting negotiation, and no-doubt the Don will tell his fanboys all about how much winning he’s doing at the table, even though he’s not.
 

JohnLarue

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Jan 19, 2005
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Looks to me like Trump wants to kill NAFTA. I am not sure if he can, but would it be good or bad for Canada. With a massive 32B manufacturing deficit, Canada can take back a great deal of manufacturing while still selling our oil and commodities elsewhere. Will stuff be more expensive here? SURE, but there is a good chance we will also be richer. Opinions?
Those manufacturing jobs are not coming back, ever
They were lost to automation or to a country with lower all in labor costs.(China, South east Asia)
If there is any manufacturing to move from Mexico, it will not be to Canada
 
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