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Maple Leafs 2017-2018 Season Thread

roadhog

Astute Observer
Aug 8, 2005
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On the highway of life
Four seasons of $1,200,000 for Phil Kessel.
$1.2M against the cap, but it's actually $1.05M for 2 years, and then 900K for 2 years. But his base salary for those last 2 years is $1M, so the Leafs are paying the majority of his salary for those last 2 years while the Pens or whatever team he's with basically get him for free.

(Click on "Salary" to see what players are actually getting paid)
 

gcostanza

Well-known member
Jul 24, 2010
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$1.2M against the cap, but it's actually $1.05M for 2 years, and then 900K for 2 years. But his base salary for those last 2 years is $1M, so the Leafs are paying the majority of his salary for those last 2 years while the Pens or whatever team he's with basically get him for free.

(Click on "Salary" to see what players are actually getting paid)
Phil Kessel is getting paid:
2018-19 $7,000,000 (all salary)
2019-20 $7,000,000 (all salary)
2020-21 $6,000,000 ($5,000,000 Bonus payable July 1, 2019) $1,000,000 (salary)
2021-22 $6,000,000 ($5,000,000 Bonus payable July 1, 2020) $1,000,000 (salary)

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/phil-kessel
 

smuddan

Well-known member
Mar 7, 2007
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Leafs officially named Kyle Dubas as their new GM.

I'm not surprised but would have preferred Hunter as I don't have much faith in 'analytics" which Kyle Dubas seems to rely on heavily. He has however done a great job in managing the Marlies and I hope it'll work out better than Gord Stellick, the other "young GM" we had in the Ballard era.
 

glamphotographer

Well-known member
Nov 5, 2011
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Canada
Leafs officially named Kyle Dubas as their new GM.

I'm not surprised but would have preferred Hunter as I don't have much faith in 'analytics" which Kyle Dubas seems to rely on heavily. He has however done a great job in managing the Marlies and I hope it'll work out better than Gord Stellick, the other "young GM" we had in the Ballard era.
Same here I was hoping for Mark Hunter but I'll wait and see what Dubas can do. If he can lockup Matthews, Marner and Nylander then that would be a good start.
 

saxon

Well-known member
Dec 2, 2009
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Lou now discussing possible position with the Islanders. Word is he’s not interested in staying in Toronto as an adviser.
 

chuckertmg

Active member
Mar 26, 2013
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not always sure...
If he can lockup Matthews, Marner and Nylander then that would be a good start.
Just a warning that analytic guys make decision based on their metric theories, and for this to work they try to be unencumbered by emotion and sentiment.

As I read your comment about Matthews and Nylander I just thought I'd throw that out there… what can make a player a fan favourite is emotion and sentiment; an analytic/metrics guy might see trade bait where Lou Amoriello saw gold.

They'll make different sorts of decisions, both having the goal of improving the team, but in different ways.

It's going to be fascinating to see how Dubas and Babcock work together going forward - this is one fascinating experiment.
 

smuddan

Well-known member
Mar 7, 2007
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Just a warning that analytic guys make decision based on their metric theories, and for this to work they try to be unencumbered by emotion and sentiment.

As I read your comment about Matthews and Nylander I just thought I'd throw that out there… what can make a player a fan favourite is emotion and sentiment; an analytic/metrics guy might see trade bait where Lou Amoriello saw gold.

They'll make different sorts of decisions, both having the goal of improving the team, but in different ways.

It's going to be fascinating to see how Dubas and Babcock work together going forward - this is one fascinating experiment.
I'm not totally against using 'analytics' to supplement whatever system Dubas has to evaluate players. I only have issues when those who use analytics like a bible and keep telling how great a defence man Jake Gardiner is, or Marincien is such a NHL calibre d, because they have great analytical numbers, when eye tests clearly tell different tales.

There were no indication of any conflicts in the management team, but with strong characters like Babcock, Hunter and Lamoreillo, I wouldn't be surprised if some power struggles were there but were never allowed to surface. I can't imagine the removal of Lamoreillo was brought about without Babcock's support.
 

Insidious Von

My head is my home
Sep 12, 2007
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Babcock used his veto power on occasion over Lou Lamoriello. He's hasn't won a playoff round as Leafs coach, some of that power may be curbed.

Remember this is Shany show, he runs a tight ship.
 

superstar_88

The Chiseler
Jan 4, 2008
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Leafs officially named Kyle Dubas as their new GM.

I'm not surprised but would have preferred Hunter as I don't have much faith in 'analytics" which Kyle Dubas seems to rely on heavily. He has however done a great job in managing the Marlies and I hope it'll work out better than Gord Stellick, the other "young GM" we had in the Ballard era.
Well, analytics would have told anyone with half a brain what David Clarkson was so what's your point? I doubt Dubas is just an analytics guy but you seem to hold onto that tag.
 

smuddan

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Mar 7, 2007
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Well, analytics would have told anyone with half a brain what David Clarkson was so what's your point? I doubt Dubas is just an analytics guy but you seem to hold onto that tag.
Sure, after the fact you can find all kinds of analytics to support and "explain" what happened. If analytics were such accurate player evaluation, then all you need would just be a computer to run a team. "Analytics" is a good tool but not the be-all and end-all in judging a player's value to the team, and that's my point.

I never said Dubas was JUST AN ANALYTIC GUY, and you probably missed his radio interview where he admitted he was tagged as an "analytic guy" since his Soo's days.
 

glamphotographer

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His decision making solely based on analytics is purely myth. He uses analytics as a tool (with many other tools) to learn from. Analytics cannot tell you the player hockey IQ or how strong and fit a player is. So many factors go into picking a pro hockey player. He explains in the video.

 

Insidious Von

My head is my home
Sep 12, 2007
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JP Ricciardi is more of an analytics man than Kyle Dubas and all he managed to do was burn bridges.
 

superstar_88

The Chiseler
Jan 4, 2008
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Sure, after the fact you can find all kinds of analytics to support and "explain" what happened. If analytics were such accurate player evaluation, then all you need would just be a computer to run a team. "Analytics" is a good tool but not the be-all and end-all in judging a player's value to the team, and that's my point.

I never said Dubas was JUST AN ANALYTIC GUY, and you probably missed his radio interview where he admitted he was tagged as an "analytic guy" since his Soo's days.
You missed the point again. Which part of Dubas is not just an analytics guy did you miss. Every team should and prob do use analytics now. You make it sound like Dubas is an ill fit because of the so called analytics guy tag. If hunter would make such a great gm why is he not one already. Other teams were known to be chasing Dubas. No news out there of any team chasing Hunter for gm. That says a lot.
Dubas was a step ahead of most with analytics. A revolutionary thinker. Using all advantages he can.
 

smuddan

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Mar 7, 2007
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You missed the point again. Which part of Dubas is not just an analytics guy did you miss. Every team should and prob do use analytics now. You make it sound like Dubas is an ill fit because of the so called analytics guy tag. If hunter would make such a great gm why is he not one already. Other teams were known to be chasing Dubas. No news out there of any team chasing Hunter for gm. That says a lot.
Dubas was a step ahead of most with analytics. A revolutionary thinker. Using all advantages he can.
Just because I preferred Hunter over Dubas doesn't mean I think he's a ill fit or I won't support him. I don't think I've made any negative comments on Dubas other than that he relys heavily on analytics. Perhaps my comments on those who believe Gardiner is a great d man because of his analytical numbers are good, but that has nothing to do with Dubas. You're just a bit overzealous in defending him, don't you think ?
 

chuckertmg

Active member
Mar 26, 2013
610
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not always sure...
His decision making solely based on analytics is purely myth. He uses analytics as a tool (with many other tools) to learn from. Analytics cannot tell you the player hockey IQ or how strong and fit a player is. So many factors go into picking a pro hockey player. He explains in the video.

I'm curious about your comments because everything he explains in the video totally cements his reputation as an analytics devotee.
Quotes:

"What analytics demonstrate is that your eyes and brain are lying sons of bitches."

"If you practice analytics you don't have to fit into hockey, hockey will fit into you."

He expands at length about "percentage driven outcomes", "the simplicity bias in scouting", "the importance of having your entire organization buy into the analytics model".

I think the Leafs could become a more competitive playoff team under Dubas - my only comment before was that he may anger some fans along the way.
As the video states, his goal is to "limit the effects of cognitive bias on personnel decisions" - and a highly skilled offensive player with poor defensive stats may not fare well under this type of analysis.
 

glamphotographer

Well-known member
Nov 5, 2011
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I'm curious about your comments because everything he explains in the video totally cements his reputation as an analytics devotee.
Quotes:

"What analytics demonstrate is that your eyes and brain are lying sons of bitches."

"If you practice analytics you don't have to fit into hockey, hockey will fit into you."

He expands at length about "percentage driven outcomes", "the simplicity bias in scouting", "the importance of having your entire organization buy into the analytics model".

I think the Leafs could become a more competitive playoff team under Dubas - my only comment before was that he may anger some fans along the way.
As the video states, his goal is to "limit the effects of cognitive bias on personnel decisions" - and a highly skilled offensive player with poor defensive stats may not fare well under this type of analysis.
That video is just a small sample size of who Kyle Dubas really is. LOL! Analytics will be used as part of his decision making but he's not building a team solely based on a players analytics. There are other factors to be considered when scouting for talent and building a winning team. It's more than corsi numbers, Dubas knows this. How many games have the Leafs won last season when the corsi numbers said they shouldn't have won (ie. outshot and Andersen made 40+ saves). Anyways Shanny will have final say if he sees something he doesn't like.
 

glamphotographer

Well-known member
Nov 5, 2011
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I'm not totally against using 'analytics' to supplement whatever system Dubas has to evaluate players. I only have issues when those who use analytics like a bible and keep telling how great a defence man Jake Gardiner is, or Marincien is such a NHL calibre d, because they have great analytical numbers, when eye tests clearly tell different tales.

There were no indication of any conflicts in the management team, but with strong characters like Babcock, Hunter and Lamoreillo, I wouldn't be surprised if some power struggles were there but were never allowed to surface. I can't imagine the removal of Lamoreillo was brought about without Babcock's support.
Speaking of Gardiner his PDO analytic must be shit because he must be the most unlucky SOB in game 7. Maybe he's just not a big game player. I agree with trading Gardiner to get something before his contract is up. I like Marlies defense (Holl) some maybe ready to come to the Leafs and Dubas maybe thinking the same.
 

smuddan

Well-known member
Mar 7, 2007
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Speaking of Gardiner his PDO analytic must be shit because he must be the most unlucky SOB in game 7. Maybe he's just not a big game player. I agree with trading Gardiner to get something before his contract is up. I like Marlies defense (Holl) some maybe ready to come to the Leafs and Dubas maybe thinking the same.
Dubas has some key decisions to make right off the bat. With about 7-8 free agents, both restricted and unrestricted, urgent need to improve the defence and contract extensions for MMN, it won't take long before we see what direction this team is heading under his management.

There's also the possibility of Hunter leaving. It's no secret he wanted the job and if he chooses to leave, how big a challenge will it be for an inexperienced GM to find a capable replacement of his head scout ? Will there be other scouting staff leaving with him for another team ?

As for Gardiner, I've read numerous arguments on various boards and it never fails for his supporters to use analytics to justify calling him a great defence man. He seemed to have improved over the last couple of seasons with good numbers, but I'd say that's because 1) he's playing behind one of the more potent offence cores in the league for good offensive stats, and 2) Andersen was there to bail him out more often than not for his defensive woes.

The analytics would likely want to sign (resign) him for no less than $6M per X 6 or so, but I doubt how many of those who actually watch the majority of the Leafs' games would agree. I'll be very interested to hear Dubas's assessment of Gardiner's value and how he deals with him before he becomes unrestricted.
 

glamphotographer

Well-known member
Nov 5, 2011
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Dubas has some key decisions to make right off the bat. With about 7-8 free agents, both restricted and unrestricted, urgent need to improve the defence and contract extensions for MMN, it won't take long before we see what direction this team is heading under his management.

There's also the possibility of Hunter leaving. It's no secret he wanted the job and if he chooses to leave, how big a challenge will it be for an inexperienced GM to find a capable replacement of his head scout ? Will there be other scouting staff leaving with him for another team ?

As for Gardiner, I've read numerous arguments on various boards and it never fails for his supporters to use analytics to justify calling him a great defence man. He seemed to have improved over the last couple of seasons with good numbers, but I'd say that's because 1) he's playing behind one of the more potent offence cores in the league for good offensive stats, and 2) Andersen was there to bail him out more often than not for his defensive woes.

The analytics would likely want to sign (resign) him for no less than $6M per X 6 or so, but I doubt how many of those who actually watch the majority of the Leafs' games would agree. I'll be very interested to hear Dubas's assessment of Gardiner's value and how he deals with him before he becomes unrestricted.
Maybe Gardiner needs a good partner to play with? Right now he doesn't have one.
 
Ashley Madison
Toronto Escorts