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Gas-Powered Cars Will Vanish in 8 Years, Big Oil Will Collapse: Stanford Study

The "Bone" Ranger

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No different than an EV with 1,000 lb batteries. It's not like they run forever. In fact, articles say that you may need to get a new battery every 5+ years. Who knows where that dead battery goes, but probably a landfill. And a new battery costs $1,000s. How often does someone need to replace an entire gas engine? Hardly ever.

EV batteries also degrade over time. So that max range gets smaller and smaller as every year passes.
this is one of the issues for myself - I think that someone needs to make a breakthrough in battery technology - it would make a world of difference, especially in my outlook on EV's - right now I keep my cars for many many years and the repair costs usually aren't too bad
 

Occasionally

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May 22, 2011
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Anyone want to take my bet. I say there will be more gas powered vehicles on the road in North America 8 years from today. Will give 2 to 1 odds. Min bet $1K.
I'd rather take a bet the Leafs win the cup 50 years in a row!

According to this link, the US has about 260 million registered vehicles in 2015. Add in Canada and Mexico, and it's over 300 million. 8 years from now, EV vehicles would be lucky to be at 10% of what gas vehicles are.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/

This graph shows the number of vehicles in the U.S. from 1990 through 2015. Some 263.6 million vehicles were registered here in 2015. The figures include passenger cars, motorcycles, trucks, buses, and other vehicles. The number of cars sold in the U.S. per year stood at 7.1 millions in 2016.
 

FAST

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Mar 12, 2004
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And if the power goes out in your house, or the city experiences a big black out like in 2004 (I think), an EV that's out of power has nowhere to go too. In fact it's worse in those situations because EV cars have poor range to start with, so there's a larger chance of tons of cars stuck in traffic running out of juice by the time traffic finally thins out hours later.

Nobody claims gasoline doesn't pollute. It's just part of the process of a combustion engine.

No different than an EV with 1,000 lb batteries. It's not like they run forever. In fact, articles say that you may need to get a new battery every 5+ years. Who knows where that dead battery goes, but probably a landfill. And a new battery costs $1,000s. How often does someone need to replace an entire gas engine? Hardly ever.

EV batteries also degrade over time. So that max range gets smaller and smaller as every year passes.
Listen to this guy.

This is reality.

Everybody seems to want to ignore the battery part of the EV equation here.

Plus as I have repeatedly posted, what ever energy that a EV uses, which will be roughly equivalent to an internal combustion engine at 750 watts per a single horse power,... will have to be replaced.

Just were is that now going to come from,...???

And most assuredly not at night from Grannies pie in the sky solar.

And in addition to what Occasionally has noted about the continual and inevitable battery deterioration,... fast charging will only increase the rate of deterioration.

Nobody wants to pollute our planet,... but we must also face reality.
 

George The Curious

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Nov 28, 2011
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I have to say, it sure is amazing that George keeps plugging away at EV cars. We get it, you love them. But like it or not, most don't. That's why hardly anyone has one.
- The buyer doesn't care that most EV cars have low power
What? EVs have low power? You still stuck in early 2000's. Tesla model S is the fastest car in the world. Most EV cars have better torque band and 0-60 times than comparable gas cars in the same category.

I'm not saying EVs at current level will replace all ICE cars, and is a good fit for everyone. I'm simply correcting some of your misconceptions , and one of which is above.
A lot of these mis-conceptions or myths are holding ALOT of people back from buying EVs. They are:

- EVs are under powered - FALSE
- EVs are for tree huggers, and costs more than gas cars - FALSE. I like EVs for mostly economic reasons, and low maintenance. The cost of ownership is by FAR much less than gas cars from maintenance, insurance, and not to forget FUEL!
- EVs need to be always plugged in - FALSE - unless you are going long distances everyday. For daily home - work commute, you only need to plug in every 3 days, and charge over night. No need to trip to gas stations and waste time lining up at gas pump!
- EVs batteries deteriates fast. - FALSE - most will retain 80% charge after 1000 charge cycles, and 200,000 km.
 

George The Curious

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Nov 28, 2011
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Listen to this guy.

This is reality.

Everybody seems to want to ignore the battery part of the EV equation here.

Plus as I have repeatedly posted, what ever energy that a EV uses, which will be roughly equivalent to an internal combustion engine at 750 watts per a single horse power,... will have to be replaced.

Just were is that now going to come from,...???

And most assuredly not at night from Grannies pie in the sky solar.

And in addition to what Occasionally has noted about the continual and inevitable battery deterioration,... fast charging will only increase the rate of deterioration.

Nobody wants to pollute our planet,... but we must also face reality.
Battery deterioration? We have historical data from 5 year old Tesla. Most still retain 95% charge, even after 100miles. One of the have over 250K miles, still 90% retention.
How many internal combustion engines can make it to 200K miles without major rebuilt or thousands in maintenance?
 

Occasionally

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May 22, 2011
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What? EVs have low power? You still stuck in early 2000's. Tesla model S is the fastest car in the world. Most EV cars have better torque band and 0-60 times than comparable gas cars in the same category.
That's the problem with EV guys.

They all seem to bring up Tesla like it's the only option. Sure it's an option if you got the $$$. The slew of EV car options are not Tesla class in looks, specs, range or price.

That's like me saying gas cars are better because I'm going to use an $80,000 BMW as the benchmark.

As I said before, I'd consider an EV down the line if the price is reasonable, it gets great range (you said solid state batteries down the line can hit 1,000 km) and it doesn't look retarded like most of these EV cars seem to trend to. And I want a normal sized car. None of this small compact stuff, which suits a college kid getting his first car. And I have no interest in getting a Tesla, since they look like Mazda 3s at 2 or 3 times the price.

In my previous post tonight, you'll see why EVs are niche products. There's too many factors working against them. Car makers have been messing with EV cars for decades, yet a rusty Ford Windstar loaded with kids, hockey gear, and groceries has more range and cargo space.

Now if they can all make the cars have better range, look better and have a wider assortment of better looking and bigger cars, then we'll talk.
 

George The Curious

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And if the power goes out in your house, or the city experiences a big black out like in 2004 (I think), an EV that's out of power has nowhere to go too. In fact it's worse in those situations because EV cars have poor range to start with, so there's a larger chance of tons of cars stuck in traffic running out of juice by the time traffic finally thins out hours later.
When big blackout happens, where do gas-stations get power to pump gas? If your home is equipped with solar power, you can still charge EVs.
 

Occasionally

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May 22, 2011
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When big blackout happens, where do gas-stations get power to pump gas? If your home is equipped with solar power, you can still charge EVs.
That's great news for the 0.001% of people who have solar homes and a matching EV. And the EV user has to be lucky to have the car home at the time. lol

And how are you going to charge your car with sun power when the car is dead on the highway in a major blackout where people are idling on the 401 for hours. That Nissan Leaf with 100 km range and a half dead battery already will run out of power before reaching home.
 

George The Curious

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That's the problem with EV guys.

They all seem to bring up Tesla like it's the only option. Sure it's an option if you got the $$$. The slew of EV car options are not Tesla class in looks, specs, range or price.

That's like me saying gas cars are better because I'm going to use an $80,000 BMW as the benchmark.

As I said before, I'd consider an EV down the line if the price is reasonable, it gets great range (you said solid state batteries down the line can hit 1,000 km) and it doesn't look retarded like most of these EV cars seem to trend to. And I want a normal sized car. None of this small compact stuff, which suits a college kid getting his first car. And I have no interest in getting a Tesla, since they look like Mazda 3s at 2 or 3 times the price.

In my previous post tonight, you'll see why EVs are niche products. There's too many factors working against them. Car makers have been messing with EV cars for decades, yet a rusty Ford Windstar loaded with kids, hockey gear, and groceries has more range and cargo space.

Now if they can all make the cars have better range, look better and have a wider assortment of better looking and bigger cars, then we'll talk.
No Tesla is not the only option. But You cannot compare Tesla model S with $80,000 BMW, you should compare it to Ferarri, Lamborghini, because Tesla model S P100 is faster than both of them.
Let's compare economy class, VW e-Golf, Chevvy bolt, Hyundai Ioniq etc, all have better torque than their gas-powered siblings, and exactly same cargo space too.

I only responded to your misconception of EVs are under powered, so let's not degenerate this into about range, and size (there will be EV SUVs and vans, just not currently), and looks again. I only pointed out your mistake of saying EVs are under powered, which shows you have done no research on this subject, and biased against EVs
 

George The Curious

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That's great news for the 0.001% of people who have solar homes and a matching EV. And the EV user has to be lucky to have the car home at the time. lol

And how are you going to charge your car with sun power when the car is dead on the highway in a major blackout where people are idling on the 401 for hours. That Nissan Leaf with 100 km range and a half dead battery already will run out of power before reaching home.
Nissan leaf with 100 km range is 7 year old technology
 

FAST

Banned
Mar 12, 2004
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Battery deterioration? We have historical data from 5 year old Tesla. Most still retain 95% charge, even after 100miles. One of the have over 250K miles, still 90% retention.
How many internal combustion engines can make it to 200K miles without major rebuilt or thousands in maintenance?

GM
" Like all batteries, the amount of energy that the high voltage “propulsion” battery can store will decrease with time and miles driven. Depending on use, the battery may degrade as little as 10% to as much as 40% of capacity over the warranty period. If there are questions pertaining to battery capacity, a dealer service technician could determine if the vehicle is within parameters.”


Tesla
“The Battery, like all lithium-ion batteries, will experience gradual energy or power loss with time and use. Loss of Battery energy or power over time or due to or resulting from Battery usage, is NOT covered under this Battery Limited Warranty. See your owner documentation for important information on how to maximize the life and capacity of the Battery.”

The point is,... batteries continually degrade as used,... with the number of charge/discharge cycles and charge rate increasing the rate of degrading.
 

Occasionally

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May 22, 2011
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(there will be EV SUVs and vans, just not currently).
That's the type of point I'm making along with others.

You keep plugging how great EVs are and everyone should get them. In reality (as I said before), only a small niche market will find an EV practical. I even said I'd consider one down the road, but everything from looks to size and range has to improve. If not, i'll stick to gas.

Let's say I want to get an Audi. Ok, where's my EV Audi that looks and acts the same as the gas one at a similar price? I don't see it. No Audi? Ok, let's dumb it down. I want a similar looking and acting EV version of a Honda Accord. I don't see it.

In time, the best solution is perhaps hybrids.

It's like computers. I've always had a tower. I finally got a laptop about 10 years ago. Not because I never wanted one, but because I found towers to be much better value. But now, for what I need, a laptop is great. You still get more bang for your buck with a tower, but any laptop now does what I need, so now I get laptops since then. In fact, al the boring stuff I do on my laptop, even the worst laptop at Best Buy is still overkill for what I do.... MS Office, internet, etc....

People will gravitate to EVs if they can all get their act together and make them similar to gas, but with the EV difference..... as well as cut down on super charging times. Nobody is going to want to wait at charging place for an hour. People want to fill up (gas) or power up (EV) as fast as possible and keep driving.

For something as common as someone who does downtown street parking (EV won't work), or a family that needs space to carry around a family and gear, there probably isn't even a EV on the market that can do something as practical as a Dodge Caravan.

What you have for EVs is basically small compact cars, and some normal sized sedans like Teslas.

Anything bigger and heavier aren't even around because it would strain the battery even more.
 

George The Curious

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Nov 28, 2011
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What you have for EVs is basically small compact cars, and some normal sized sedans like Teslas.

Anything bigger and heavier aren't even around because it would strain the battery even more.
Where do you get that?? all EVs arae small compact cars?? Have you never heard of Tesla model X - it's a mid-size SUV - curb weight just under 6000 lbs. It has trunk in front and back, so more than enough carrying capacity. you should watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lItIyxGZUZQ
Another one: Audi e-tron SUV, 500 km range, this coming year: http://insideevs.com/audi-e-tron-suv-confirmed-for-2018-with-300-mile-500-km-electric-range/

The heavier EVs have longer range because increased battery capacity, not really an strain on battery.
 

George The Curious

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Nov 28, 2011
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GM
" Like all batteries, the amount of energy that the high voltage “propulsion” battery can store will decrease with time and miles driven. Depending on use, the battery may degrade as little as 10% to as much as 40% of capacity over the warranty period. If there are questions pertaining to battery capacity, a dealer service technician could determine if the vehicle is within parameters.”


Tesla
“The Battery, like all lithium-ion batteries, will experience gradual energy or power loss with time and use. Loss of Battery energy or power over time or due to or resulting from Battery usage, is NOT covered under this Battery Limited Warranty. See your owner documentation for important information on how to maximize the life and capacity of the Battery.”

The point is,... batteries continually degrade as used,... with the number of charge/discharge cycles and charge rate increasing the rate of degrading.
these manufacture warranty statements are designed to protect them from warranty claims. I'm sure you can find similar alarming statements from gasoline cars - such as premature failure of engine is possible etc.
The reality of the fact is that 90% of 5 year old Tesla and Nissan leafs retain 85% of their battery charge.
 

Occasionally

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May 22, 2011
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Where do you get that?? all EVs arae small compact cars?? Have you never heard of Tesla model X - it's a mid-size SUV - curb weight just under 6000 lbs. It has trunk in front and back, so more than enough carrying capacity. you should watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lItIyxGZUZQ
Another one: Audi e-tron SUV, 500 km range, this coming year: http://insideevs.com/audi-e-tron-suv-confirmed-for-2018-with-300-mile-500-km-electric-range/

The heavier EVs have longer range because increased battery capacity, not really an strain on battery.
6,000 lbs? Tesla, Tesla, Tesla. lol

Great, Audi has an EV. Who knew Audi makes an EV version of their popular A4....... oh, it's an SUV. lol

The number of vehicles to choose from is astounding.
 

FAST

Banned
Mar 12, 2004
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Have you never heard of Tesla model X - it's a mid-size SUV - curb weight just under 6000 lbs. It has trunk in front and back, so more than enough carrying capacity.

The heavier EVs have longer range because increased battery capacity, not really an strain on battery.
A curb weight of 6000 lbs,... which brings us to another fact that likes to be ignored.

All of those 6000 lbs needs to be accelerated from stop, that takes a lot more energy to overcome the inertia of 6000 lbs than the equivalent internal combustion engine SUV of 3500 lbs.

Energy is energy,... it has to come from some place, and it won't be at night from grannies solar cells.
 

George The Curious

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Nov 28, 2011
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That's the type of point I'm making along with others.

You keep plugging how great EVs are and everyone should get them. In reality (as I said before), only a small niche market will find an EV practical. I even said I'd consider one down the road, but everything from looks to size and range has to improve. If not, i'll stick to gas.
No where in any of my posts did I say EVs are for everyone. If you read my previous posts, I said if your need to travel long distances often, and live in apartment or condo where there is no charging facility, then gas car is definitely the only option. However I am sick and tired of hearing other false execuses such as the ones you make: EVs are under powered etc.. that's just ignorance. learn to use Google.
 

George The Curious

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A curb weight of 6000 lbs,... which brings us to another fact that likes to be ignored.

All of those 6000 lbs needs to be accelerated from stop, that takes a lot more energy to overcome the inertia of 6000 lbs than the equivalent internal combustion engine SUV of 3500 lbs.

Energy is energy,... it has to come from some place, and it won't be at night from grannies solar cells.
Not sure what you are getting at. Gasoline cars have far less energy efficiency. I think the best it gets is 40%, and the rest 60% are wasted in form of heat. Also the energy used at refinery to extract gasoline from crude oil, and transportation and distribution. Did you know that refineries use more electricity to make gasoline than it can use to drive an EV at same distance? According to a popular factoid, 6 kiloWatt-hours of electricity is used to refine a gallon of gasoline. Because EV's drive about as far on 6 kWh as gas cars drive on a gallon of gasoline, a big question pops into mind about the global allocation of resources. Electricity could be used directly to drive cars, rather than being used to make the gasoline that's used to drive cars. Even that isn't the whole story because electricity is the tip of the iceberg of total resources consumed by the fossil fuel industry.
 

Occasionally

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May 22, 2011
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No where in any of my posts did I say EVs are for everyone. If you read my previous posts, I said if your need to travel long distances often, and live in apartment or condo where there is no charging facility, then gas car is definitely the only option. However I am sick and tired of hearing other false execuses such as the ones you make: EVs are under powered etc.. that's just ignorance. learn to use Google.
That's the way you've been promoting EVs.

At first, it was all about "range anxiety". There's a ton more reasons why EVs are not practical or worth it. As I said, if EVs were so great, everyone would have one.

Read my post #258 for more reasons. And I just thought of those in 5 minutes. There's surely more..... such as battery degradation which I didn't even think about until I googled it. And FAST brought up things like 6,000 lb EV that can strain it over the long run. These are the hidden things that EV promoters like yourself will never bring up. And the warranty coverage from Tesla doesn't even cover battery degradation over time. You'll never see Elon Musk telling people that warranty point.

And just as I said before, EV users love to talk about Tesla, Tesla, Tesla. Not a great example, as it's a high priced EV (probably the most expensive one). The typical EV car which some companies offer are nothing like an expensive Tesla.

The avg gas car is who knows..... a Camry or Civic. Some kind of avg family 4-door sedan. Using your logic, I'd be saying the avg gas car in the GTA is a Audi A6.
 
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