I need investment advisor help

Zoot Allures said:

Of course. Everyone has the same info, therefore .... the way to make money is hold when everyone sells at bottom and buys at top which is what the average trader does . If you hold you get the monies they throw away IMHO


Larue, what is your background in finances ?

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Any short (or medium) term trading requires the ability to predict short (or medium) term price movements
i.e. time the market
And nobody is able to do that consistently.

Therefore any short (or medium) term trading scheme is more of a gamble and not an investment
Those that do think they are able to time the market are often taught a very expensive and humbling lesson by the markets.

What is far more predicable is recognizing when a company has products / services with strong and growing demand. i.e. a competitive advantage
Such companies are able to grow their earnings, cash flow and dividends over a long period of time
Buying positions in such companies and holding them for 5-10-15-20 years is investing and is far more successful, predictable and less stressful than trying to guess if the market price will go up or down over a short term period.

Will a specific stock price go up or down on any given day?
Roll a set of dice, odds or evens ? About the same predictability
Why throw your money away to the market and pay a lot in commissions when you can get free drinks in Vegas ?

My background in finance?
I have a some credentials which I am proud of and for some difficult to obtain

JohnLarue said:

Any short (or medium) term trading requires the ability to predict short (or medium) term price movements
i.e. time the market
And nobody is able to do that consistently.

Therefore any short (or medium) term trading scheme is more of a gamble and not an investment
Those that do think they are able to time the market are often taught a very expensive and humbling lesson by the markets.

What is far more predicable is recognizing when a company has products / services with strong and growing demand. i.e. a competitive advantage
Such companies are able to grow their earnings, cash flow and dividends over a long period of time
Buying positions in such companies and holding them for 5-10-15-20 years is investing and is far more successful, predictable and less stressful than trying to guess if the market price will go up or down over a short term period.

Will a specific stock price go up or down on any given day?
Roll a set of dice, odds or evens ? About the same predictability
Why throw your money away to the market and pay a lot in commissions when you can get free drinks in Vegas ?

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Warren Buffet approach. Buy solid companies that the market has underpriced and hold. He also suggests the layman buys index funds and hold. Buffet makes very expensive mistakes and he has a team of experts. He wins more than loses but the average guy cannot play his game. Those monies market timers lose becomes yours if you buy the index and hold.

As Larue states , there is no trading expenses in holding and no stress.

Big Rig said:

He wins more than loses but the average guy cannot play his game.

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Sure he can
It all comes down to how much time and effort you invest
If you are not willing to put the time and effort in then you should not be investing
or expect to pay others to manage your investments and expect to be sold mutual funds, pay the fees and with limited expectations for great returns

Oh boy... I can't help but comment!

I have a CPA background and 40 years as a RIA (Registered Investment Advisor) in the U.S., not Canada.

Do you folks know how dangerous ETF's are? I have done huge research reports on why UNLESS you're a day trader you should avoid. They are participation units and not the index. In the "flash crashes" we have had in the U.S. when trading was haullted due to computer meltdowns and some trades were "busted" by the NYSE., most of the worst hit of course were ETF's as the participation units were so mispriced since when there was not a normal market balance.. Electronic trading went crazy with limit orders Maybe those things don't happen on the Canadian TSX etc. but the risk is there. To me ETF's are just a marketing gimmick and who in the world would want a index fund with no individual selection of good or bad outlooks and individual company fundamentals.

BTW for those more technically a stop loss limit, order is especially dangerous since at limit down it turns into a market order and executes on the next tick. If the ETF last value was $100 but then drops to $0.01 you will get sold out at $0.01 which happened to lots of ETF limit orders in the various flash crashes.

There are managers of money. mutual funds etc that have long track records of positive Alpha (outperformance for the risk taken in their category). I realize mutual funds in Canada tend to be far more expensive than in the U.S. Long ago I understood this was since they have to register sperately in each province and pay all the separate legal fees. In the U.S. its basically just one registeration with the SEC.

Zoot Allures said:

I as thinking along those lines
What about index funds? as they are not traded on the floor they should not be subject to sharp downturn you suggest
Majority of mutual funds do not beat the index and do not provide downturn protection.
Those few that did yesterday may not be the ones that do tomorrow
What are you suggesting?

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Yes, tracking error on ETF's are relatively small UNTIL all goes wrong as in flash crashes we have had.

Index funds actually own the underlying stocks of the index so you only have market risk, not tracking error in a crash often due to electronic trades. If you use stop limit orders you could still be chasing the index down but not likely to go to $0.01 like ETFs since there is no buy side or specilist making market. For stocks you have specialists/market makers that balance trading, so risk is far less than with ETF's. And not ALL the stock in an index are going to $0.01 like has happened with ETF's.

I don't recommend "the majority of mutual funds" I only recommend those ro managers with long track records of Alpha vs Beta (outperformance for risk). Of course I want a the same management team over the long-term, low expense ratios etc. In my view buying an index means you too lazy to do the research to find good managers vs brainless indexes with no human input or evaluation of the stocks.

Due to securities regulations in the U.S. and Canada, I can not get any more specific and they would be based on each person objective, risk tolerance, financial situation and how it fits in with his overall investment portfolio. I can not work with non U.S. citizens/residences. In the U.S. I am a FINRA Registered Principal and supervise others so follow all the rules very closely. This is general conversation for general informational purposes only on a Canadian board and theerfor have no business intetest in any advice.

Zoot Allures said:

The issue I have with any fund that had outperformed market is past performance does not mean tomorrows performance will beat markets. There are so many funds out there that some will beat market by chance so how does one find the competent funds that beat market because the managers are smart?

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First of all, I don't know what "the market" is... what market? what category? what Index?

I look for at least a 5-year and often find 10-year records of Alpha (outperformance for risk taken). That has to be more than chance. Risk vs reward is far more important to me the "the market."

HOLLYWOODG said:

I strongly recommend this guy: http://mangrovewealthgroup.com/carlos-flores/

Manages the money of many of the GTA's elite. Industry friendly. Will help the ladies with their cash business woes. I manage my own money though so I do not use him.

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This guy. He provided a yield of 20% year-over-year for the past 3 years for a friend.... Manages over $11 billion in wealth. I know a few industry gals that invested with him as he had some good financial strategies to mitigate CRA concerns.

Zoot Allures said:

spoke to him


is part of hollis wealth


seems like a another mutual fund advisor with English as second language so communication in English is not his strong point


So, your friend claims 20% return over 3 years? That is your reference on him?


Cheers

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No. My call on him is he has many of Toronto's elite investing in him. To me 20% year-over-year with a conservative portfolio is decent. People I know say it's not impressive and they can get the same return by buying Amazon stock. That's risky. Diversification is key.

He has far more aggressive portfolios as well.

With respect to English as a 2nd language... it does not bother me. If I did not manage my own wealth I would go with him.

He must be doing something right to manage a portfolio in excess of $11 billion. Young guy too. So there are many years ahead to make it rain for you.

Very professional. Industry ladies; discretion assured. Given the short span of years to earn an income for ladies in the industry they'd be wise to see someone like him if they have not already.

Zoot Allures said:

all of them as assets should be mixed IMHO
Now ten years of year after year of Alpha performance is something to get excited about
Do such mutual funds actually exist?
remember taxes also count when considering net gain
Cheers

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Yes such funds exist in the U.S. Have no idea about Canadian funds which have higher expense ratios.

Taxes should NOT be the main concern especially in the U.S. since our taxes are some of the lowest in the world, and historically. Much lower than Canadian.

Long-term capital gains very favorably taxed. There are various tax reduction strategies such as maximizing our IRAs, 401Ks etc. Also indexed annuities where participate in gains but no losses and never have to make up prior index losses and all tax deferred. Muni bonds are very high interst rate risk and if rates ever rise, losses could far exceed income for maybe 3-5 years depending on duration. The bankrupcy of Puerto Rico could hurt other muni's since it seems revenue bonds will have no priority over general obligation bonds. Huge bond losses expected out of Bankrupcy (long story).

HOLLYWOODG said:

This guy. He provided a yield of 20% year-over-year for the past 3 years for a friend.... .

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Lots of investment portfolio's did 20% over the last 3-years. The key to watch is what happened in downturns including 2008 at least in the U.S.

Dave in Phoenix said:

Lots of investment portfolio's did 20% over the last 3-years. The key to watch is what happened in downturns including 2008 at least in the U.S.

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I agree Dave. Very valid points.

HOLLYWOODG said:

This guy. He provided a yield of 20% year-over-year for the past 3 years for a friend.... Manages over $11 billion in wealth. I know a few industry gals that invested with him as he had some good financial strategies to mitigate CRA concerns.

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Mangrove is under Hollis Wealth which is still owned by Scotia bank. I believe that they sold Hollis, who they bought along with Dynamic mutual funds a few years ago as a package but the sold it off to Industrial Alliance back in Dec 2016 but kept the Dynamic, this sale should be final later this year. I believe at the sale date Hollis had $35 billion in assets under management, this would include Mangrove. Everyone under Hollis pushes the Dynamic funds onto their clients, they are still doing so.

If my information is correct your $11 billion under this one guy or office would be overstated.

VBB

VERYBADBOY said:

Everyone under Hollis pushes the Dynamic funds onto their clients, they are still doing so.

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Obviously, a huge conflict of interest to be pushing affiliated funds. Often advisors get better commissions etc to push in-house products. I wonder if sales contests for nice trips for sales quotas are still legal in Canada. They were banned by FINRA in the U.S. more than a decade ago, but still common for insurance company products.

Dave in Phoenix said:

Obviously, a huge conflict of interest to be pushing affiliated funds. Often advisors get better commissions etc to push in-house products. I wonder if sales contests for nice trips for sales quotas are still legal in Canada. They were banned by FINRA in the U.S. more than a decade ago, but still common for insurance company products.

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True, but you have to disclose the connection upfront and then let the client decide plus the possible legal document to sign to save their ass. They have been banned up here plus there are ethics from professional orgs that prohibit you etc. But there are always ways around many things that are grey areas ex. Taking clients out for sporting events or a charity golf tourney... the list goes on and ethics handbooks are thick.

VBB

VBB - The customer agreement is probably read as much as a prospectus (rarely). I believe you have something similar to a prospectus in Canada.

In the U.S. any taking clients to sporting events, dinner etc has to be recorded in a gift log and reviewed by compliance -(or me as an OSJ for reps (Office of Supervisory Jurisdiction).

In the U.S. the FINRA (Broker) rules, monitoring, audits are far more extensive then for RIA's just under very lax SEC rules other than a higher legal "fiduciary" responsiblity. But that only helps for suing a firm. If someone is going to be a crook its much easier under RIA/SEC rules than as a broker. Sadly there are crooks that actually divert money in all fields which can give the 99% honest folks a bad repuation by association.